Permission given to TalkNats from Ryan Clary to post this photo; Principal owner Mark Lerner talks with Juan Soto
Obviously, Juan Soto‘s +8.1 WAR would be a big plus if the Washington Nationals acquired him. He would almost transform the team from 71-wins to 80-wins by himself. The Nationals purged a lot of “addition by subtraction” off of the roster also. Certainly, -4.0 WAR will not be on next year’s roster, and that alone could take this team from 71-wins to 75-wins. That is where we should begin before we roll the dice on Soto signing with the Nationals in the next 3-months.
Up the middle defense is a key; Photo by EGV for TalkNats
As we discussed a few days ago, if the Washington Nationals pitched to their Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) as their ERA, they would be in the postseason. That did not happen, so let’s talk reality. What we know is that WAR and other statistics tell us that you also need the right amount of balance between your offense and defense. This isn’t pro football where you either play offense or you play defense. Okay, yes, baseball added the designated hitters so you have your one offense-only player, and pitchers are solely for defense. The point is you need position players that can drive in runs too. The name of the game is you win by scoring more runs than you give up.
The Nats finished the season with the 9th best FIP in baseball at 3.94 which is very impressive considering they carried Patrick Corbin all season and his 4.41 FIP, and that certainly sent that average up in the wrong direction. Just by replacing Corbin with a better pitcher should make that 3.94 better in theory. But the Nats MUST focus on improving their defense to have a legitimate shot at making their FIP nearly equal to their ERA.
As an American living thousands of miles away in Alexandria, Virginia, my heart has found an unexpected home in the Australian Baseball League (ABL). It’s a love affair that began with a simple curiosity — and has blossomed into a deep-rooted passion.
The Washington Nationals knew they were getting some much-needed payroll relief with Patrick Corbin‘s contract coming off of the books as of this offseason. The team has $70 million remaining on Stephen Strasburg‘s retirement deal that is a hit of $35 million per year for the next two years. And Strasburg is the only 8-digit obligation the team has on the books. Get beyond those two years remaining on Strasburg — and the coast is clear.
The highest projected active contract going into the offseason is the arbitration number of approximately $8.6 million for Kyle Finnegan‘s final contractual year. The only long-term contract is with Keibert Ruiz at $6.25 million a year through 2030.
MLB Trade Rumors published their offseason arbitration projections for players with at least 3.0 years of service time. They did not include potential Super-Two players like CJ Abrams. If we include Abrams in the numbers at a $3.3 million projected salary, the Nationals would have an AAV (average annual value) for the CBT (Competitive Balance Tax) payroll at approximately $85 (including Strasburg) for just team-controlled salary players. That is exactly $50 million for active players.
If the Washington Nationals pitched to their FIP as their ERA, they would be in the postseason. The Nats finished the season with the 9th best FIP in baseball at 3.94 while turning in an horrific season as a defensive team. FIP is directly affected by defense, and the Nats were the 5th worst defensive team in baseball. Suffice it to say that all playoff teams this year had positive defense except for San Diego, and they were just a -4 runs while the Nats were -22 runs.
MY RANT: Yesterday, after seeing a few posts on social media of players disbursing to their offseason homes, you look at the calendar — and it was only September 30th. These 130+ day offseasons stink. We all hate it, and that reality has to change to meaningful September games, and Octobers with watching the Washington Nationals in the playoffs.
The offseason has started for the Washington Nationals. At the end of tomorrow’s doubleheader between the Mets and Braves, there will be 18-teams that are setting tee times for golf.
The front offices of those 18-teams are getting to work, and Nats’ general manager Mike Rizzo will be working on his 2025 plan and doing a final assessment on the 2024 season. A source told us that in early October, the front office and coaches and player development people will be setting offseason exit interviews with all players that they plan to bring back for the 2025 season.
Of course most people here want to see big upgrades on the big league roster. Better players translating into more wins. That will take a financial commitment from ownership, and while principal owner Mark Lerner has said per a source that, “Mike Rizzo will have the financial resources he needs this offseason,” we saw what Lerner said a year ago in the quote below — and there was only a moderate uptick in payroll with no long-term signings.
The Washington Nationals season will end today. After the game will begin the process for the offseason. There is still a game to be played today. Yesterday, the Nats needed an ace performance from MacKenzie Gore to bring them their 71st win — and he delivered in a big way. That win tied the Nats with their record from the 2023 season.
In the process, Gore improved his ERA below the 4’s to a very respectable 3.90 for the season. For the month of September in his five starts, he had an incredible 1.26 ERA. For some reason, Gore struggled in June and July with ERAs of 5.13 and 7.62 respectively. Take out those two months, and Gore had a 2.76 ERA in his other four months.
He was MacK the knife, and cut through the Phillies powerful offense like a hot knife through buttah. In his 6.0 scoreless innings, Gore only allowed three hits and one walk. His nine strikeouts set down all the big names from Philadelphia like Harper, Turner, Stott, Castellanos, and Realmuto before the sixth inning then he struck-out all three Phillies in his final frame getting Schwarber, and Turner and Harper for the second time.
The Washington Nationals needed an ace performance from Trevor Williams to bring them the 70th win — and he delivered — again. In the process, Williams lowered his ERA to 2.03 — a Nats’ record, and the Nats were 10-3 in his starts.
Today, MacKenzie Gore takes the mound, and hopefully as MacK the knife. The shark needs to show his teeth to cut through the Phillies and finish his season with more promise.
The Washington Nationals had the Scrappy Nats back yesterday until Kyle Finnegan imploded on the mound and gave up 3-runs to take the loss. The Nats are in a long losing streak and looking for Trevor Williams to bring them the 70th win. We will see if Mother Nature and the Baseball Gods cooperate.
