Going Deep with The Nats

The weather last night in Maryland matched the mood after the passing of legend Brooks Robinson was announced. Josiah Gray had to face a Baltimore team that he almost beat in April when he held them to one-run and lost 1-0. He was playing the shadows of M&T Bank Stadium where his favorite football team plays. Few Orioles fans are probably aware that Gray regularly dons his Lamar Jackson jersey. In a case of déjà vu, Gray lost again by a score of 1-0 against the O’s this season just like he did on April 18, 2023. His season finished with a 3.91 ERA, and ranked him 61st on FanGraphs for starting pitchers with at least 90 innings, and 82nd in WAR although that’s a cumulative number. Suffice it to say that the Nats lone All-Star is a solid No. 3 starter on a good staff. Fair enough.

Last year, manager Dave Martinez and G.M. Mike Rizzo spoke at a function for season ticket holders called the Ballpark Bash. There was an open mic, and they got grilled as the team finished with a Washington Nationals’ worst 107 losses. This year, there was no Ballpark Bash, and the pair avoided a grilling by those that pay to watch the team. It is ironic that fans ask tougher questions than the media. Instead, the team did a full-team autograph session this year for their season plan holders, and the Ballpark Bash looks to have been a one-and-done. As normal, Rizzo and Martinez did meet with the media for a traditional year-end homestand colloquy that was certainly more upbeat than last year.

Last season, the Washington Nationals named Lane Thomas as their Player of the Year, and yesterday the team announced that he earned that honor again for this season. Certainly after the trade of Jeimer Candelario with his .823 OPS and the injury of Stone Garrett with his .801 OPS, it would be a battle between Thomas and CJ Abrams for the team’s POY or as some call it — the MVP. If you go by BBRef, they have Abrams with the edge at a +3.6 WAR over Thomas with a +3.3 WAR. By FanGraphs’ calculation of WAR, Candelario is STILL the team’s WAR leader at +3.1 with Thomas at +2.7 and Abrams at +2.4. Yes, WAR is a formula that differs in the calculation at every turn. There is no standard in the WAR calculation.

Looks can be deceiving for these 2023 Washington Nationals. The team currently has a 68-win season, and that would generally be considered to be a failure for several teams — but for a rebuilding team that only won 55-games last year — this is a significant improvement. The Nats have exceeded even the most optimistic computer generated projections of 65-67 wins from FanGraphs modeling, while Vegas set their over/under for 58.5 wins at several sportsbooks. And guess what, the Nats have nine more games to play this season (weather permitting) to better that record.