Going Deep with The Nats

The Washington Nationals certainly surprised many when they finished the 2023 season with a 71-91 record. If you read this without context, you would not know if that is a good or bad surprise. When you go from 55 wins to 71, that is a good surprise. But there was plenty of good, bad, and ugly rolled into the Nats’ season.

The Washington Nationals were at a point of questionable return that sports’ teams never go to when they put a player’s health above winning based on circumstantial evidence. That was what the Nats did back in 2012. They won 98 games in the regular season and 100 games in all. They probably could have won more. They did something no team has done before when they put a person and his health ahead of wins — and shutdown Stephen Strasburg instead of shoving the pedal to the metal. It could have cost them wins and maybe a deep run in the playoffs. That decision also made them a target from players, fans, and the national media for criticism. Strasburg’s health was more important than winning per owner Ted Lerner.

Outfielders – Down on the Farm

Welcome to the last installment of this series, and potentially the most interesting, as we look at the deepest pool of minor league outfield talent that the organization has had since they became the Nationals. An optimist could see eight future MLB contributors in this group, although some of them have a long way to go before that’s anywhere near reality. Still, the growth and development of this group will probably go the furthest toward determining when the Nationals are truly competitive again.

Outfielders – MLB

Lane Thomas, 27

How Acquired: Traded by the Cardinals for the remains of Jon Lester, 7/30/2021

Prospect Rank: N/A

2023 Level: MLB

The Numbers: 2.7 fWAR/3.2 rWAR

What We Learned: All aboard the Lane Train! Despite staying in the yard for the entire first month, Thomas nearly became the first 30-homer National since Rendon and Soto in 2019. Against lefties he was an MVP candidate, hitting .332/.375/.573 in almost 200 plate appearances. He was much more pedestrian against righties, and limped to the finish line, but there shouldn’t be any more questions about whether or not Lane can be an everyday player on a decent team. Not only did he carry the best bat in the lineup for most of the season, he hosed 18 runners on the bases as well, a number 50% higher than any other outfielder in either league (four others had 12 each). He probably deserved an All-Star nod, but the deep National League outfield did him in.

Infielders – Down on the Farm

3B Brady House, 20

How Acquired: 2021 Amateur Draft, 1st round (11th overall)

Prospect Rank: MLB #40/WAS #3

2023 Level: A/A+/AA

The Numbers: 

What We Learned: That the young heal quickly, and that House could make it through a full minor league season (with some judiciously chosen off days). Moving over to third base full-time this year, House got right back onto top-100 prospect lists by laying waste to both levels of A-ball before becoming one of the youngest players in the Eastern League (he turned 20 a few weeks before his promotion) and continuing to rake, albeit without a home run for the first six weeks there. We also learned that he’s potentially an elite defender at the hot corner. Given his easy opposite field power, visions of Ryan Zimmerman with 30 or even 35+ bombs are mighty enticing.

Infielders – MLB

1B Dom Smith, 28

How Acquired: Signed as a free agent (1/$2), 01/04/2023

Prospect Rank: N/A

2023 Level: MLB

The Numbers: 0.1 fWAR/0.9 rWAR

What We Learned: That Dom is what he is, a solid to good defensive first baseman with the bat of a fourth outfielder, and a good clubhouse guy. For a team starved for power, getting a mere dozen home runs (and many of them of the lowest possible leverage) from the everyday first baseman is not what fans pay to see. They prefer to see lefty hitters with the #22 on their back adding red seats to the third deck in right field.

Catchers

C/DH Keibert Ruiz, 24

How Acquired: Traded by the Dodgers for Max Scherzer and Trea Turner, 7/30/2021

Prospect Rank: N/A

2023 Level: MLB

The Numbers: 0.0 fWAR/1.3 rWAR

What We Learned: That you have to be patient with young catchers. The Nats have historically been even worse at developing their own catchers than their own pitchers, so the trade for Ruiz as one of the two biggest return pieces at the 2021 deadline made sense. He then became the youngest regular starting backstop for the Nats since the Buffalo (similarly a trade deadline acquisition who was blocked at his previous franchise), and became the first piece of the new young core to get a long-term extension from the Nats early this season when he signed a $50 million deal that will keep him in a curly W through 2030 with two team options beyond that. Ruiz more than doubled his home run output this season but saw a defensive drop-off (rating as the third-worst framer in the sport and getting no help in holding runners from a pitching staff full of guys with huge leg kicks). When Ruiz remembers to swing at pitches he can barrel, he can run hot for weeks, but then will eventually revert to swinging at everything remotely close to the plate. If he’s hitting sixth or seventh, you feel pretty good about the lineup. If he’s hitting third or fourth, as he did for most of the last month-plus? Yikes. 

Welcome to the first installment of individual player recaps for your 2023 Nationals! Over the next several days, we will be looking at a synopsis of the season that was for every player who is still on the 40-man roster *or* who is a prospect of any note in the system (for those, I generally stuck with the MLB Pipeline top-30 list, but there are a few other names scattered in there as well). For each player, you will see some relevant stats from this past season (if there are two rows, the minor league numbers – which are aggregated rather than separated by level – are above the MLB numbers), my take on their odds of remaining on/being added to the 40-man roster, likely scenario(s) for their 2024 season, and whether or not I think they can or will play any kind of MLB role on a potential contending Nationals team in 2025. Does that all make sense? Awesome. We’re going to lead off the series with pitchers whom the organization views as starters and who have appeared in the majors. The rest of the schedule is as follows: starting pitchers (minors), relievers (all), catchers (all), infielders (MLB), infielders (minors), outfielders (MLB), outfielders (minors). Let’s get started!