Going Deep with The Nats

There is a penalty for signing a free agent who had a qualifying offer (Q.O.) attached. The Washington Nationals would have to forfeit their second-highest draft pick of the 2025 draft if they signed a QO’d free agent.

Actually, the full penalty to the Nats if they signed a QO’d free agent would translate to forfeiting their second round draft pick at approximately pick No. 49, and also $500,000 would be reduced from the Nats’ bonus pool during the Jan. 2026 international signing period.

That potential No. 49 draft pick would be near the top of the second round. While that hurts, there are only a dozen players ever picked at No. 49 that put up a career of 2.5 WAR or more. The most notable pick in that slot was Carlos Beltran in 1995, and in the past 15-years, only one pick, Jesse Winker, has put up those minimal numbers of 2.5 WAR or more in their career. In the past 60-years of drafts, your odds of signing a star at No. 49 is not too good.

Most baseball fans across the country are wishing for a big signing today. Nats fans remember nine years ago when rumors broke that the Washington Nationals were signing Daniel Murphy. Christmas Eve signings don’t happen often, but you can certainly hope for a Christmas miracle.

Fortunately for Nats fans, there was a collective exhale this weekend when news broke that the Nationals had acquired their first baseman in Nathaniel Lowe. A few days before that, it was pitcher Michael Soroka. The Nationals just committed to about $20 million in new salaries for the 2025 season. But we know there is more work to be done.

The first base free agent crop had four key names to start the offseason with Christian Walker and Paul Goldschmidt now off the board. That leaves Pete Alonso (Qualifying Offer), Carlos Santana, and nearly a dozen others in a thinning list of top players.

In honor of Bob Dylan, and the movie that was released about his life, it is an opportune time to quote his words from The Times They Are A-Changin’: “Come writers and critics who prophesize with your pen, and keep your eyes wide [because] the chance won’t come again. And don’t speak too soon for the wheel’s still in spin, and there’s no tellin’ who that it’s namin’. For the loser now — will be later to win, for the times they are a-changin’.” Dylan believed that cycles could go from losing to winning. Dylan Crews talked about the same from his time at LSU when he won the National Championship in his final season.

Right after the draft lottery, we sent out a congratulatory message to Matt Adams who was the Washington Nationals representative at the MLB Draft Lottery when the Nats won the first pick in the 2025 MLB Draft. The Nats had just 10.2 percent odds of winning the first pick in the lottery.

We also messaged some of our sources in the Washington Nationals organization about the draft. One bit of advice we got back was basically a “pump the brakes” message to all of the quotes and social media posts that might have implied that Ethan Holliday was a lock for the first pick. Our source’s message went on to say, “it could be him,” but nothing will be decided for a while. That seems prudent. The MLB Draft will be held on July 13, 2025.

How quickly things change in sports and life. Just two years ago to now — how things have changed. Baseball rosters change often. You never etch anything in stone as Yankees fans just learned. In Washington D.C., we are just debating players as acquisition targets.

We take a look back in time to two years ago. Let’s start with the prospect rankings at Baseball America and MLB Pipeline (graphic below). This was before Dylan Crews, Yohandy Morales, and Travis Sykora were drafted in July 2023, and before Jeimer Candelario was traded for DJ Herz and Kevin Made in July 2023. This was before Seaver King, Caleb Lomavita, and Luke Dickerson were drafted in July 2024. This was before international free agent signings that got the Nats prospects like Victor Hurtado and Angel Feliz in January 2024. This was before trading for Alex Clemmey, Cayden Wallace and Tyler Stuart in July 2024. This is your current rankings on this link, and below you can see what the rankings looked like just two years ago beyond that Top-11 and certainly at №3.