Relying on limited data makes it unreliable to base projections on just 5.5 percent of a full season’s data. How great would it be if Mitchell Parker won 32-games with a 0.73 ERA this season? Both Nathaniel Lowe and CJ Abrams are on pace to hit 54 homers. General Manager Mike Rizzo speaks often to how players with a lengthy history will get back to the stats on the back of their baseball cards.
The Washington Nationals are a young team. They won their first series of the 2025 season today. But nobody knows what production you will get from the young players like Jacob Young, James Wood, and Dylan Crews. In actuality, we have no idea as to what any player will do for the entire season. Parker, Lowe, Abrams, Keibert Ruiz and MacKenzie Gore are all having great starts to their seasons. Then you have part-time players like Alex Call and Amed Rosario who have had great starts to their seasons in even smaller sample sizes as they started the season as bench players.
Maybe the most encouraging stat is that the bullpen has settled down. They allowed 8 runs per game in their first two games, and just an average of 1.43 runs per game since. Only Colin Poche has an ERA above 7.75 in the bullpen.
Do you think there was an over-reaction to the results from the first two games of the season? Now the Nationals face the $400 million L.A. Dodgers, the reigning World Series champs, starting tomorrow. The Nats are supposed to get swept. But there is a reason they play the games. We shall see how the Nats do against this tough schedule to begin the season in which they will play in the first 12 games of the season, the past three NL World Series teams.
What the Nationals have to do is clean up a few things. That is all part of the evolution in continual improvement. Baseball is always about that. On Friday, the Nats were 1-6 on the season, and today are 3-6. If the Nats can win just one game against the Dodgers, they would fly to Miami with a 4-8 record and a chance to make hay while the sun shines against the Marlins, Pirates and Rockies on the road for the next 10 games. Then the schedule gets tough again with series against Baltimore, the Mets, and the Phillies to get the team into May — and a point where the sample sizes we will be more meaningful.
In today’s game, the Nats hit .400 in RISP situations with no home runs; the Nationals won today in a more 2024 type of way with solid starting pitching, a stingy bullpen, and timely hitting. Again, we hope to see more improvement from these Washington Nationals.
