The Nationals find themselves tied for 3rd place with the Mets in the NL East after the first series of the season
The Washington Nationals held scoring leads in every game in the opening series against the Phillies. A key hit on Opening Day in the eighth inning, or fewer mistakes by the bullpen in the second game were key differences from being 3-0 or the actual 1-2 record which has the Nats tied for third place with the Mets in the NL East. There are 159 more games to be played this season.
Today’s win seemed to calm the Nats’ fanbase after two frustrating losses to start the season. The fears of bullpen troubles were realized by watching 5.66 runs per game given up by the relievers. Contrast that with only 0.66 runs per game given up by the Nats’ starting pitchers, a combined 1.04 ERA over 17⅓ innings for the second best starter’s ERA in MLB.
In the first game on Opening Day, MacKenzie Gore outdueled Cy Young candidate Zack Wheeler. The Nats’ lefty completed 6.0 innings with a 1-0 lead and set a Nationals’ record with the best Opening Day start in the team’s 20 year history. In the second game, Jake Irvin went 5.0 innings and departed in a 2-2 tie. Today, it was Mitchell Parker going 6⅓ innings of shutout baseball, and he bested Aaron Nola in a 5-0 game.
Not all of the relievers have been awful. Eduardo Salazar, Jorge Lopez, and Kyle Finnegan have 0.00 ERAs. Jose A. Ferrer had a better second game than his first. The other four relievers will have to show improvement as manager Dave Martinez figures out who he can count on. Derek Law started the season on the 15-day IL, and Jackson Rutledge was converted to a bullpen arm in Spring Training. Help could be on the way, but keep in mind that Lucas Sims and Colin Poche do not have minor league options.
Our analysis in the offseason was focused on trying to achieve better defense to bring the team’s ERA inline with it’s FIP. Kind of a new Moneyball. To get there, General Manager Mike Rizzo acquired Gold Glove first baseman Nathaniel Lowe and third baseman Paul DeJong who was an incredible +6.0 OAA after his conversion to third base by the Kansas City Royals to finish the 2024 season’s final two months. Add top defensive outfielders like the 2024 minor league Gold Glove winner, Dylan Crews, in right field, and Gold Glove finalist Jacob Young staking out center field, this team’s defense has a chance to be the best in baseball.
Building a better defense, like Rizzo did, was much more economical than acquiring an ace pitcher. Strikeout pitchers are expensive, and free agent aces are out of the reach of small market budgets. The Royals found mid-range pitchers for the 2024 season who could improve their team by getting their FIP to equal their ERA, and possibly have an inversion of the curve with an ERA that is better than FIP. As it turned out, their team ERA and FIP were exactly the same in 2024 at 3.76. They tied with the mighty Yankees with that 3.76 ERA for 6th best in baseball, and the Royals made the playoffs last year.
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves here. The Nats will have to show more than three promising games with their starting pitchers and their defense to show that this can work the way it did for the 2024 Royals. Rizzo’s 2024 team earned their ranking as a bottom-5 defensive team, and could be a top-5 defensive team for the 2025 season. Could.
But will any of this matter if the Nats’ bullpen can’t hold leads or puts so far behind the 8-ball that they cannot get back into games? This is what team balance is all about. You need to have the right balance on all facets of the game.
“Pitching, defense, running the bases, those have to be constants for us. We have to do those really well. If we do those everyday, we will win some games.”
— Martinez said after the game
“[DeJong] has been really good. That’s the reason I wanted him here. He turned that double play better than I’ve ever seen. The hitting, the home runs are a bonus. What he can do over there [on defense] for us will help our pitching staff.”
Speaking of balance, the Nationals are currently tied for 5th in MLB with six home runs. They bettered the Phillies in the power department. Keibert Ruiz and Lowe have two homers each, and Josh Bell and Amed Rosario have one home run each. But where the Nats are struggling on offense is their RISP hitting at just .138 and a poor 4-for-29 in those spots.
This is a case of good news/ bad news on the team’s balance. A 3-game sample size won’t tell us much. We will continue to look at the numbers as the sample sizes get more meaningful.
