So far, so good for Michael Soroka in his two starts in Grapefruit League play. In 2015, the Atlanta Braves chose Soroka in the first round at pick No. 28 from Calgary in Canada. Not exactly a hot bed for All-Star baseball players, yet Soroka was named an All-Star as a rookie, placed second in the Rookie of the Year and sixth in Cy Young voting.
From the top of the world to 10 starts over the next four years after two achilles injuries, Soroka made a comeback last year with the White Sox unsuccessfully as a starter. Second chances placed him in the bullpen to finish the 2024 season and he thrived. Into free agency for this past offseason, Soroka was projected to get a bullpen job at $7 million a year for two years. He chose the Nationals because general manager Mike Rizzo offered him a starter’s job, and Soroka said he clicked with assistant pitching coach, Sean Doolittle. He signed for a one-year deal and he got $9 million.
There was a belief by some that the White Sox didn’t allow Soroka to pitch his full repertoire of pitches as a starter and that led to his failure and a 6.39 ERA and a 1.512 WHIP. As a reliever, the righty posted a 2.75 ERA and a 1.222 WHIP. But the big difference was the power he gave up at .509 SLG versus .291 as a reliever.
The thought between Soroka and Rizzo was to take that success as a reliever and replicate it as a starter. Easier said than done when batters might see you two or three times during a game as a starter. Again, so far so good unless you believe that the Cardinals success in today’s game was second-time-through-the-order issues. Yes, Soroka’s fourth inning was a struggles as he gave up hits to Nootbaar, Contreras, then got Arenado on a double play ball before Donovan got an RBI single. Maybe Soroka was tiring while pitching the fourth inning for the first time or maybe it was the dreaded second time through the order.
“I was falling behind (Lars) Nootbaar 2-0, three straight fastballs. It was working so far, so there was no reason not to do it. But they get that leadoff hit and a couple of pro at-bats from a couple guys. (Willson) Contreras made a good adjustment, made sure to get his hands inside that last sinker and pushed him across. Again, it was a really good curveball to (Brendan) Donovan that he probably just sold-out for, made sure that he wasn’t getting beat by, and put it out there and got himself the RBI. So again, if I stay on it, stay over the plate and make sure we’re ahead more often, I think you minimize, at least for that inning, for sure. But all in all, it was good.”
— Soroka said after today’s game
Time will tell as Soroka gets deeper into games and builds up his stamina. Overall, his numbers in 7.0 innings of Grapefruit League play is a 1.29 ERA with one earned run on four hits with one walk and nine strikeouts.
Our guy Stan wrote an article last week on different scenarios on how this one year contract could work out. Here is the obvious upside for the Nationals in this deal:
- Soroka pitches well and wins games for the Nationals -and-
- He is traded before the July trade deadline -or-
- The team retains him for the full season because the Nats are contending, and then they tag him with a qualifying offer (Q.O.), which was valued at $21.05 million last year — and if Soroka declined that, and met all contract thresholds, the Nationals would receive a draft compensatory pick after Competitive Balance Round B after the 2nd round -or-
- The team wants to keep Soroka and extends his contract.
Let’s face it, there isn’t a lot of risk in this one year deal unless you believe Rizzo could have spent that same $9 million he paid to Soroka towards better acquisitions. The Soroka money committed nearly 20 percent of the team’s budget over the offseason to one player. The best case is Soroka leads this Nats’ team on a miraculous run. Short of that, the next best outcome is this becomes a great 4-month deal that lands a top prospect as part of a trade package at the July deadline.
Going the Bryce Harper route where you keep the player for a full-season and then use the Q.O. route is a real roll of the dice. As we saw recently, the Red Sox received pick No. 75 when they QO’d Nick Pivetta, and he signed elsewhere. That is about what the Nationals would get if they kept Soroka for the full 2025 and placed a Q.O. tag on him and he signed elsewhere. Unfortunately, the Nats don’t have a “small market” designation and won’t get the same benefits as the wealthier Orioles who received the No. 29 and No. 30 draft picks this year based on the faulty CBA rules that gave them premium draft compensation picks when Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander signed elsewhere.
Let us hope that we are debating a great Soroka season and what to do with him instead of the alternative.
