From the long winter in Washington, D.C., baseball fans can vicariously enjoy what their favorite baseball players are feeling in the sunshine at Spring Training. This is the time for dreaming about the future. A time of hope. Each team is tied at this time of year at 0-0 in the regular season. The Washington Nationals are talking like a team that believes they are better than how the “so-called” experts are projecting them. Their new marketing slogan is NexGenNatitude with visions of the young prospects and core of promising players.
A focus on the future and the next generation of Nationals’ stars is an appealing thought. Going through some brain gyrations with algebra and simple math gets us to think that this team is built on paper for better times ahead. If some balls bounce the right way, maybe the future is now.
“We’re not waiting for the future anymore. The future is now.” — Dylan Crews said on Foul Territory Vlog
“We’re all just ready to grow together and I think we’ll surprise some people.” — James Wood said on MLB Network
“We don’t want to hear that we’re rebuilding, and wait to the future.” — Mike Rizzo said on Foul Territory.
For this year’s roster, Washington Nationals’ general manager Mike Rizzo acquired 11 players on MLB deals with that first acquisition occurring at the Winter Meetings when Rizzo selected Rule-5 reliever, Evan Reifert. Later, Rizzo signed his first player directly from Japan when he acquired free agent, Shinnosuke Ogasawara. And three of those 11 players have been with the Nats before like Kyle Finnegan, Trevor Williams, and Josh Bell. The new players and prospects are creating a lot of buzz in camp.
Some players came into camp in the BSOHL (best shape of his life). The offseason plans given to each player were specific on what each had to work on. You could see a difference early in this camp compared to previous camps with the players showing up early and in great shape.
The minor leaguers, per a source, had scheduled ZOOM calls early in their offseason with VP of Player Development, Eddie Longosz, as well as coaches and coordinators who were on these calls. They were told what they needed to work on in their offseasons. Prospects like Robert Hassell III, Brady House, Andrew Pinckney and Jarlin Susana are turning heads in camp.
At the end of last season, the MLB players who were set to return for this season had exit interviews with manager Dave Martinez and his coaching staff. Some players, like Joey Gallo and Patrick Corbin, were not pursued by the Nationals for future employment. Corbin, however, will probably return to Nationals Park in 2029 for the 10-year anniversary of his World Series win.
Notes on what we had hoped to see in Spring Training has been encouraging. The new corner infielders, Paul DeJong at third base and Nathaniel Lowe at first base, are getting it done on defense. We have seen CJ Abrams at shortstop looking more athletic, and moving his feet. And new starting pitcher, Michael Soroka, threw three hitless innings in his first outing with increased velo.
Defense is complementary to pitching unless your pitchers are striking out everyone. DeJong made a play on ball over the weekend that last year would have been a double, and he fielded it and threw out the runner. It is all about a newer statistic: OAA (outs above average). Think about it, you turn what could have been a hit into an out, and that saves extra pitches, prevents existing runners on-base from moving up bases, takes a runner off of the bases, and doesn’t allow the opposition to turn over their lineup as quickly. Here is the link to my story on improved defense as the new Moneyball.
The best Washington Nationals’ teams have been built with great starting pitching, and usually with three aces at the top. Rizzo has said you win with great pitching. Middle-tier pitching can move up in value if you prop them up with best-in-class defense.
The Royals signed middle-tier pitchers and improved their defense to try to get close to the same effect as No. 1 pitchers would give you for less money last year, and it got them into the second round of the playoffs. The Royals paid last year $31 million combined for Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo which was less than what Corbin Burnes cost by $4 million a year.
So yes, you need competent pitching enhanced by well-above average defense to make that pitching look better than their normal projections. Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) is that key where the Royals’ defense saved their pitchers 47-runs in 2024 versus the Nationals defense that cost their pitchers -21-runs. That is a 68-run differential between the two teams. That is a ton of extra wins if the Nats could improve their defense that dramatically. In 2024, a 68-DRS improvement would have added over 8-wins. On paper, it all sounds great. Putting theory into practice isn’t as simple as it sounds — but this could work.
High-K pitchers are very expensive, and middle tier pitchers rely more on contact. This all brings in the BABIP concept which is the acronym for: Batting Average on Balls in Play. It takes home runs out of the equation since they theorize most of those cannot be caught by a fielder. The BABIP statistic measures how often a batted ball results in a hit. The league average BABIP in 2024 was .291.
What can affect BABIP?
- Defense: The quality of a team’s defense can affect BABIP
- Luck: Luck/unlucky can play a big part in a player’s BABIP
- Talent: A player’s skill level can affect BABIP as well as exit velo and barrel rates
- Home ballpark: A player’s home ballpark can affect BABIP
How is BABIP used?
- BABIP can be used to evaluate both pitchers and hitters
- BABIP is often used to determine which hitters are “lucky” versus “unlucky”
- BABIP can also tell us whether sample size is helping or hurting a player
Traditional WAR calculations reward pitchers for what they can supposedly control like walks, strikeouts, and home runs. Balls put into play have a BABIP value that defense can affect up/down, and the standard FIP calculation neutralizes fielding to the same calculation for all teams: ((HR x 13) + (3 x (BB + HBP)) – (2 x K)) / IP + FIP constant. If the Nats defense met the FIP standard last year, the Nats would have had the 14th best ERA in baseball at 3.94 instead of 23rd. That would make a pitcher like Corbin somewhat valuable at a +1.7 WAR in 2024, but since final scores are determined by how many runs were given up, on that basis known as RA-9, Corbin was a -0.4 WAR. Corbin finished 2024 with a 5.62 ERA, but his FIP was 4.41. A huge difference due to the Nats poor defense.
Take Michael Soroka as the pitcher who ostensibly is replacing Corbin in the rotation. If Soroka pitches to the FanGraphs projected 4.44 ERA along with any other pitching needed to equal Corbin’s 174 2/3 innings, that would improve those innings pitched by 1.18 in ERA. Simple math to get to the 1.18 number then some complicated algebra to get the net effect to solve the equation for the total of earned runs (ER).
Improving in the Corbin slot in the starting rotation by 23 earned runs could be transformative by itself. Those 23 earned runs divided by a factor of 8 in run differential would improve the Nationals by at least 3-wins there. That is significant. Of course this is all on paper and pitching is actually played on top of a mound of clay and dirt.
Again, the ultimate goal in every game of baseball is to outscore your opponent to win. Key stats for the season are runs scored and the value of a singular run as well as runs against which is the value of run prevention. Making that SINGULAR run a key focus has been an issue with the Nationals. FanGraphs actually has the Nats offense improving from 4.07 runs scored in 2024 to a projected 4.25 in 2024. That equates to 30 more offensive runs scored in a season. But why would FanGraphs keep the runs-against number the same as last year if the Nats improved their pitching and their defense? You brought in Soroka for Corbin, and the other four pitchers of MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, DJ Herz, and Mitchell Parker should improve. Now Trevor Williams most likely takes the spot of Parker, and yes, you would expect Williams to regress some on the ERA because he is a year older. The other pitchers are young enough that they are coming into their prime and should progress.
As we have showed, the Nats pitching staff last year was the 9th best ranked by FIP. The defense has greatly improved when the team added Dylan Crews to right field at the end of August last year. Crews won the Gold Glove for minor league outfielders, and was excellent in his time with the Nationals in 2024. Jacob Young led all of baseball in OAA and was a Gold Glove finalist. Luis Garcia Jr. turned into a ‘plus’ defender at second base, and as mentioned, DeJong and Lowe are huge defensive upgrades at the corner infield spots. Lowe has a Gold Glove at first base. And in one-third of DeJong’s season at third base, he was a +6.0 OAA. Extrapolate that for a full season, and his OAA numbers are close to Young.
The Nats had a defensive liability with CJ Abrams last year. He took his offseason “to do” list and turned it into a “done” list. He hired his own middle infield coach as we told the story when he flew Nate Trosky to his town in Georgia to work on his defense and mental part of the game, especially on his footwork with “lazy feet” and his “mind space” on focus. Also, Abrams’ commitment from his father is some of what you will hear about as well as the story of Home Run Jesus (HRJ). You should watch and listen to this entire video that we set-up for Baseball Banter — the Abrams portion starts around the 19:20 mark:
So yes, the future is bright. Rizzo doesn’t want to talk about the rebuild. For now, I think you are out of the rebuild when you either have an offseason that is a no-doubter that clearly signals to everyone you’re out of the rebuild like when the team signed Jayson Werth for 2011 -or- show you are a winning team (or close to it), which will be judged in hindsight. The million dollar question is whether Rizzo will be able to acquire the type of player in the next offseason that moves the needle to make the team markedly better by +4.0 wins or more?
“I think we’re getting to the point that when you see an opportunity [in free agency or trade market] to make yourself so much better, not only for that particular year, but for years going forward, that’s what we’re looking to do. We’ve always been aggressive when opportunity knocks. … When you see your opening and green light — step on the gas and go for it.”
— Mike Rizzo on Foul Territory on March 4, 2025
From midseason last year and through the end of the 2024 season, the Nats had some major addition by subtraction using that FIP formula. The Nats subtracted -5.1 in WAR from their 2024 roster into 2025, add in 3 more expected wins improving the pitching without Corbin, and if the Nats just get to league average defense of 0-DRS that would save -21-runs and another 2.6 wins. Working off the team’s 2024 pythagorean of 70-wins, that should take this team to 80.8 wins.
Those projections only assume the replacement players perform at league average replacing Eddie Rosario, Joey Meneses, Gallo, etc., except for Corbin’s replacement(s). If the offense does better as FanGraphs is expecting, that is 30 more offensive runs scored per their projection, and another 3.75 wins. That would take the team just over 84-wins. Of course part of the plan on paper won’t go as well as projected. That would be part of your standard deviation. But we also expect that the defense will be much better than a 0-DRS.
One observation of the starting position players is how good the defense has been so far in Spring Training. That could be the secret sauce here to improve the OAA and DRS statistics to go from a negative to league average or better. You can hear Finnegan discuss his defense as well as “the future is now” in this in a radio interview on 106.7 The Fan D.C.
Where do you have this team finishing in 2025 given all of the data? FanGraphs says 73-wins.
