On January 10, 2023, we broke the news to the baseball world that the Washington Nationals had moved to a No Sale mode, and the only reason the team technically remained for sale for a few months longer was because the team was under contract with the investment banking firm of Allen & Co. That source who gave us that scoop, messaged us yesterday to give us the real scoop behind the scenes on some scathing reports of the owner-GM situation that was in the news from a local media person. We felt like we received a good grasp of the facts vs. the fiction from our source.
The same source a few weeks ago wouldn’t give specifics, but we learned enough to believe that general manager, Mike Rizzo, was working with a budget of $50 million on new acquisitions on this year’s payroll. This source has been invaluable for information. As we have seen, the Nats numbers are now within $6 million of that number, and almost certainly will climb closer to that budget number when the final roster is assembled and player(s) on minor league deals and additional acquisitions are added to the Opening Day roster like the possibility Colin Poche makes the cut.
As of today, Rizzo has spent slightly over $44 million. We will see how close he gets to that $50 million +/-. Rizzo admitted last week, “We did all of this without blowing up the budget,” which meant he made all of those acquisitions to-date, and stayed within the budget — at least to that point in time.
But did Rizzo spend all of that money wisely? That is the $50 million question best answered in hindsight when we see how everyone performs. But it’s fair to wonder and analyze the moves.
Let’s be real, $50 million is a lot of dinero to spend on this season’s new player acquisitions. But it is also fair to point out that the total payroll overall is $9.7 million under last year’s $138.1 million CBT payroll number. Those who stick to what Thom Loverro was spreading is that the Lerners aren’t spending. Oh they are spending, just not enough for some. Again, Rizzo has spent $44 million so far. That is more than 15 teams have spent to this point. Overall, the Nats are in the bottom-7 of team payrolls. But young teams typically are able to save cash with pre-arb minimum $760,000 deals. Just remember what the 2023 Orioles did with a $68 million payroll en route to a 101-win season.
Our main question is: Why did Rizzo sign three new starting pitchers, a DH who has had struggles, and a utility infielder? Sure, on a barren roster like two years ago you would understand, but the key when dealing with a finite budget is to fill clear holes first and foremost, then build starting pitching depth … because you can never have too many pitchers.
Rizzo spent about $22 million for players in positions where the Nationals had depth. There was a lot of replacing players for minimal WAR gain -or- in the case of Michael Soroka and Shinnosuke Ogasawara, they are taking away significant innings on paper from DJ Herz and Mitchell Parker per FanGraphs. After Soroka was acquired, FanGraphs dropped the Nationals by nearly two wins (on paper). The same with Josh Bell over Jose Tena/Andres Chaparro at DH decreased the overall WAR, but in this case it was a small amount. There was minimal gain of Amed Rosario over Nasim Nunez at utility infielder, and a wash for Lucas Sims over Zach Brzykcy.
Everything is about dollar per win production. Some call it $/WAR and FanGraphs breaks those numbers down to a win value. Last year, Nathaniel Lowe was worth $22.5 million per FanGraphs. Rizzo got a lot of excess value above his actual salary of $10.3 million. That was the move of the season, even though ESPN rated it as a “B” move because Rizzo had to then replace the reliever he traded to Texas for Lowe. True, but because Rizzo avoided signing one of the free agent first baseman attached to a qualifying offer (QO), he saved his second round draft pick from forfeiture as well as $500,000 of international free agent money. That is a point that went over the head of Loverro in his disgust over the Nats not signing free agent Christian Walker. This is all before looking at Walker’s cost in dollars and his age. To me, Rizzo gets an A+ for the trade.
Almost all of the responses to that original tweet based on Loverro’s comments just fell in line that had an assumption of guilt that what he said was 100 percent accurate. Anybody can say anything. Sometimes there are consequences, and as a journalist, usually it is just your reputation if someone calls you out on it. Most would rather assume that Loverro got it right, and Lerner is lying like Loverro claimed. Our source said his claims that Lerner nixed the deal were “categorically false.” We will cover this further below. Let’s get back to player acquisition analysis.
FanGraphs does projections and players play the games. We will see how it goes. The stench of Joey Gallo, Eddie Rosario, Nick Senzel, Corey Dickerson, Chad Kuhl, and Nelson Cruz are still measured in newer scars, and those deals that go bad can go real bad. All of that shows how poorly things can go when you sign players who aren’t in the “sure thing” category. Rizzo could say it worked out well with Jesse Winker and Jeimer Candelario, and yes, that is true. But is it three bad ones for one good one? Is it worth it? Do you have that fear about some of the new signings? Again, play the games, but money wasted on bad signings could have been used for better quality over quantity.
That $22 million may have been better spent on Kenley Jansen and Tanner Scott to build a super bullpen — and you still would have had enough money to acquire Nathaniel Lowe, Trevor Williams, Jorge Lopez, Paul DeJong, and Evan Reifert and stay within the $50 million budget. Yes, Rizzo did need a starting pitcher in the short-run as the team figures out what they have with Cade Cavalli, but did he need three new starters and a DH who struggled with the lowly Marlins last year?
Remember the timeline, Soroka was signed by Rizzo on Dec 19. What was the rush? Scott signed Jan. 24, and Jansen signed last week. Maybe Rizzo had no shot at Scott who went to the Dodgers so you pivot to another top reliever with that cash.
The bullpen and DH spots are still underwhelming based on FanGraphs projections. We still have no idea who the presumptive closer is on this team. And if Bell plays like he has the past two seasons on average, that is not good.
Normally, you would say third base is an issue, and Rizzo did not fix that. But in his defense, that was the thinnest position along with catcher and center field in free agency. It was sign Alex Bregman or trade for Nolan Arenado if you wanted a star. Rizzo even tried to sign Gleyber Torres and put him at play third base per Jon Heyman. Our source said the Nats would have paid him a 2-year deal for approximately $35 million. That is $2.5 million more than what Torres actually got from the Tigers on an annual basis, and the difference per Heyman, was that Torres did not want to play third base. As MLB Trade Rumors wrote, “third base remains a target area for Washington, as the team’s attempt to get Gleyber Torres to change positions from second base fell on deaf ears.” In the end, the Nats got DeJong last week at the bargain price of a $1 million salary and a $600,000 incentives bonus.
Those who complain the Nats spent no money are living in la-la land if they don’t think just under $50 million isn’t a lot of money. The Orioles spent a total payroll of $68 million in 2023 and then went on to win 101 games. We heard the same before the 2012 season that the Nats payroll was too low. You can’t judge young teams fully by payroll.
Here is another issue, I personally have no idea on projecting the future for contention -or- how long principal owner, Mark Lerner, can stick with, “it isn’t the right time” excuse.
“… You’ve got to wait until … [you are] right on the cusp of being really good.”
— principal owner Mark Lerner said in an interview published in the Washington Post
That is typical non-definitive and non-committal talk by Lerner. Define “really good?” Exactly. It could be the chicken or the egg scenario — which comes first? Some might say the Nats cannot be really good until you sign a couple of superstars — but some would say the Nats are “really good” right now. Everyone has an opinion. In 2010, the Nats were not close to “really good” with that 69-93 record going into the offseason when Ted Lerner signed Jayson Werth, but Rizzo pointed out that they had a core of prospects that already proved to be stars at that point like Ryan Zimmerman, Jordan Zimmermann, and Stephen Strasburg. That was Rizzo’s excuse that he has to wait for his “[prospect] stars to become [MLB] stars.”
The fan base fears Lerner will have a new excuse next year, and who knows, that could happen. This team could have been a winner if Rizzo added enough positive WAR beyond the Lowe acquisition. Maybe this team will gel together and surprise everyone. Until you improve the roster by sizeable upgrades with internal players, draft picks, and/or some of those players from outside the organization, how will you get to the point where the team is an NL East contender. Find some new acquisitions who can add +4.0 WAR or better like Bregman. It feels like this could be the third year in a row winning 70ish wins for the Nationals.
Obviously improving at the corner infield was a need as expressed by manager Dave Martinez. In reports we made previously, Rizzo was engaged with Lowe in early December at the same time he was reported to have interest in Walker. But there were no leaked reports of any serious interest in Walker from the Nationals, from anyone, as it was more of a bunch of teams are on Walker in conversations from Bob Nightengale stating six teams were aggressively pursuing Walker and the Nationals were named — and you know the team that was not named, Houston, actually signed Walker. On top of that, we were told Rizzo’s Plan C was a distant Plan C in case he did not get Lowe or Walker. The whole truth is known by Rizzo and Lerner, but all indications are other than from Loverro is that the Nats had many plans going simultaneous to get a first baseman, and we know that the way it went was to get Lowe.
By the way, Walker turns 34 years old this year and was looking for a minimum 3-year deal for $20 million each to run through his age-36 season -and- he had the Qualifying Offer penalty attached to him which would mean if the Nats signed him that Rizzo would have forfeited his 2nd round draft pick (#49 overall) plus $500,000 in international free agency. The Lowe acquisition was one of the best deals Rizzo has put together in his tenure as general manager.
But where Loverro failed in his rant, and never mentioned, is that Rizzo had a $50 million budget to spend and didn’t need to buy Powerball tickets like Loverro joked. Why is that funny? As we mentioned, the Orioles in 2023 made the playoffs with a total payroll of $68 million. They won 101 games. It can happen with a young team because you have rookies, first-year and second-year players making league minimum salaries. The 2012 Nationals had a low payroll. But look how fast the Nats went over the CBT payroll limit after they gave arb raises to the youngsters and signed Max Scherzer.That all happened within three years after 2012.
Also, Loverro failed to even mention that the Nationals in fact traded for Lowe and acquired him a day before Walker’s deal was done. Adjusted to a Walker’s $20 million salary, Fangraphs would have Lowe worth 4.3 WAR compared to Walker at 3.2. We called Walker’s agent, Michael Martini, to get addition background with no response.
Yes, there is a lot of negative energy, and Loverro has been stirring up the “he said” on the Lerners for 20 years, and the Lerners have never shot back at Loverro. It feels like the playground bully. Although if you ever met Loverro, you might think he was the kid who was bullied at school.
There will be grading coming from the outside that in some cases points more at owners. Some teams spent no money this offseason. These are team grades, there are 11 teams graded below the Nats’ mid-offseason grade of “C-” from ESPN’s David Schoenfield. And he writes after the moves made, “probably just add some bullpen depth.” Bullpen depth? Where is the closer? The money was there, and while Lopez could be an answer, Schoenfield noted that he was already acquired. Who did Rizzo add after that point: Lucas Sims on a $3 million deal this week, and Poche on a minor league deal. Does that blow you away? Schoenfield and I agree that the Bell move as a DH missed the mark. Rizzo better have hit the mark on most of his new acquisitions.
If you graded Lerner, sure, it has to be a “D” with the only positive being that he gave Rizzo a $50 million budget when he could have given him far less. A $20 million budget would have set the team up for a colossal fail. Five teams have spent at that level or below. Yes, things could have been much worse. The overall payroll will probably end up lower overall unless the team does a player extension. Some simple business reasoning, most likely Lerner based his budget to where he felt the team wouldn’t lose money after their $14 million hit from MASN. Maybe if MASN didn’t reduce, the budget would have been $65 million. We will never know the answer to that.
The bigger fail by ownership is this: They didn’t raise revenues through a jersey patch sponsorship or sale of the stadium naming rights as they have owned the team for nearly 19 years. While MASN is a clear drain on revenue enhancements, ownership has to be creative to find other revenue streams, and they failed to do that. We have mentioned this over the last year a dozen times, and were the first to point out that the Nats were the only team in baseball without a jersey patch sponsorship or a stadium naming rights deal. That is a fail.
Don’t get me wrong, through all of the B.S., Loverro brings up some points, and he also mentioned that the Lerners haven’t taken advantage of revenue streams. It is his delivery like he wrote, “Supposedly, the owners claim they are losing $100 million a year.” Context please. That was the rumor circulating by most owners in the COVID-shortened season. So you can write or say what you want to with no push-back? That is how you get clicks on salacious writing.
The truth is — there should be a healthy dose of skepticism because nobody but Lerner really knows the whole truth. We will spend the next year wondering, “Is now the time that the Nationals are really good?”
