The Rockettes perform at Nationals Park.
Photo credit: depositphotos.com
Remember the great summer of 2017 when The Rockettes were dancing behind Dusty Baker‘s first place Washington Nationals on top of their dugout on July 4th? The Nats beat the Mets the night before on a walk-off winner to take an 8.0 game lead in the NL East. Those were the days when you only needed a few offseason tweaks to win another NL East pennant.
Are fans ever -not- nervous? It comes with the territory. Rebuilds will give you more reasons for that nervous energy and a sour stomach. When principal owner, Mark Lerner, basically gave the same annual pep talk yesterday — just using different words. You get the eyeroll that we’ve heard it before. We have reasons to be a little skeptical. He has the control — and we don’t.
Last month, I sat in the audience at Nationals Park for the annual Hot Stove event when general manager Mike Rizzo gives his talk on the State of the Nationals. We heard his reasoning for not pushing more chips in the middle. Was he covering for his boss or telling the full truth?
“You have to do what you have to do to sustain greatness. … by having a core group of guys who will be with you through those years. … When your [prospect] stars become [MLB] stars — that’s when you take off and get your Gio Gonzalez and Howie Kendrick moves.”
— Rizzo said in January to season ticket holders
When I heard Rizzo discuss why he didn’t go after the biggest free agents, coupled with his earlier comments that they weren’t signing QO’d players based on weighing the forfeiture of their second round draft pick this year plus losing $500,000 from their international free agency bonus pool, I said okay that makes sense. Don’t get me wrong, like many, I wanted a Soto reunion with Bregman as my second choice. Reality is that we don’t usually get what we want.
The youth movement, and the fact we have baseball in D.C. will satisfy me to start the season. As a season ticket holder, loyalty only goes so far. Winning, will cause me to go to more games instead of posting tickets on SeatGeek. My money is spent on this team in the thousands of dollars. All of this makes me different than most others who write about this team. The beat writers get paid a salary and stipends to go to the games, and don’t have to pay for tickets. They write with a different perspective.
“When Mike calls me in and says, ‘We really need to think about it,’ for next winter, we’ll talk about it. Right now, he doesn’t think — and I agree with him: There’s no point in getting a superstar and paying him hundreds of millions of dollars to win two or three more games. You’ve got to wait until — like [acquiring] Jayson Werth, [when the team] was right on the cusp of being really good, and it took us to the next level. That’s the ideal situation. It’s always on our mind.”
— principal owner Mark Lerner said
On the honor system, did a general manager really think it wasn’t the right time to add more accomplished free agents to the roster? That is where I have pause. On the other hand, if you aren’t signing QO players, who else would I have signed? This wasn’t a great free agent market past the first dozen names on the rankings list. We all know Rizzo tried for Gleyber Torres, and there were probably others who didn’t want to take their money. That squarely goes to Rizzo’s line, “It takes two to tango.”
Some would say that there was plenty of budget for this year’s roster to have signed a bigger name player. That is one way to look at it or give Rizzo credit for getting Nathaniel Lowe for first base and building around that move with more depth. It is plausible that Rizzo avoided QO’d players by his choice as he clearly said, and stuck with what he wanted to as a strategy to not block any prospects. What’s done is done with the roster. Maybe a bullpen move or two remaining. Another year to figure out a roster to see who stands-out in Rizzo’s theory of: “prospect stars must become MLB stars.“
This season will determine so much for next year, and the Nats draft first overall on July 13 to get a superstar who could likely be on the 2026 Opening Day lineup. That could be some exciting times if top infield prospect, Brady House, can grab the third base job. House is a key prospect internally in the system.
The MLB Draft will give Rizzo the No. 1 pick in the draft that he has not held since he took Bryce Harper in 2010. Rizzo usually drafts the best player available (BPA). Maybe he adds the best outfield position player in Jace LaViolette or the top pitcher in lefty Jamie Arnold. One other player to keep an eye on as a top infielder in the draft is Aiva Arquette. There are of course other draft-eligible players who might not be as quick to the Majors and could still factor in at the No. 1 pick like the high schooler Ethan Holliday. These ranked names will change as their seasons move into the warmer months. Arnold and LaViolette stepped up and above the first weekend of college baseball — but it is a long grind.
For this coming offseason going into 2026, figure that eight players are scheduled for free agency and $28 million comes off of the payroll with $18 million going back on the payroll with arbitration-eligible raises. Also the biggie, after this year there is just one more year of Stephen Strasburg on the CBT payroll books. That is $35 million off the ledger after the 2026 season.
Maybe it will be the time to upgrade at the primary catcher position if Keibert Ruiz cannot prove to be the star behind the plate. Will House show he is the third baseman into the future for this team?
The starting rotation of MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, DJ Herz, Mitchell Parker, and Trevor Williams are five names after Michael Soroka departs for free agency. If you signed Arnold, there is your potential No. 1 starter for the future. If you don’t draft Arnold or another pitcher, you could dive into the deep end of the pool for a top free agent starter. The free agent class is deep for next year’s pitchers and especially for closers and hi lev relievers.
For next season, the Nats also have starters like Shinnosuke Ogasawara, Cade Cavalli in that mix and Josiah Gray will be back from injury making it 8-deep. Top pitching prospects Jarlin Susana and Travis Sykora are inching closer, and both have top of the rotation stuff. It is crowded, and as Rizzo says, “That’s a good problem to have.” What you hope is a No. 1 and a No. 2 emerge from inside the organization — otherwise free agency is a possibility — and top starting pitchers are expensive in free agency.
Let’s say the CBT payroll tops at $130 million this year just to round up. A net of $10 million comes off, and we can round that to $120 million. If Rizzo gets another $50 million to spend for the next offseason and bring the payroll to $170 million, you have to spend that on one big name, and two bullpen studs. And this is where you have to hope that enough players are shining as stars so that there are fewer spots to fill.
How much would J.T. Realmuto, Ryan Helsley, Raisel Iglesias and Zac Gallen cost in free agency? Probably $65 million. Or do you not add a starting pitcher, and just build a super bullpen, and wait for the following offseason for a starting pitcher if you need it?
What do you think of this lineup for 2026:
- CJ Abrams SS LH
- Dylan Crews RF RH
- James Wood LF/DH LH
- Brady House (rookie) 3B RH
- Jace LaViolette (draft pick) DH/LF LH
- J.T. Realmuto (free agent) C RH
- Nathaniel Lowe 1B LH
- Luis Garcia Jr. 2B LH
- Jacob Young CF RH
The bullpen free agents next year are a younger class of names, and a bunch of All-Stars. This could be the time to stock up on a great bullpen to be set for years to come. Derek Law is a pending free agent after this season, and Jorge Lopez, Lucas Sims, and Colin Poche are all on one-year deals, and likely gone. While we still expect that Kyle Finnegan will be signed by the Nats, he might only be a one-year deal. With Jose A. Ferrer anchoring the bullpen, this could be an area impact next year. A key will be how the young relievers who made debuts last year like Orlando Ribalta, Eduardo Salazar, and Zach Brzykcy can make an impact this year and for the future plus new names like Marquis Grissom Jr. and Jack Sinclair. Then you have Rule-5 pick-up Evan Reifert.
Based on this year’s signings of top relievers, expect to spend $10 million to $15 million for top bullpen arms next offseason. Budget that for 2026, because this could be an opportunity to build a great bullpen for the future, to close games for the Nats’ young core of starters.
Hopefully this allays some of your fears on the future of the team. Again, this year will determine a lot about next year. Normally, it is too early to do this exercise, but everyone deserves a sneak-peek into the future.
