Unless you missed the memo, Spring Training camp opens tomorrow for the Washington Nationals. That officially ends the offseason which finished with massive turnover from the 2024 roster of players. If we look at players who provided no positive WAR on the FanGraphs RA/9 modeling, there were a total of 24-players throughout last season who fit that criteria, and 18 of those players are gone from the 40-man roster, with only a high likelihood that Keibert Ruiz and Riley Adams will make the 2025 Opening Day roster from that list of 24-players. Gone from the 2024 roster is a cumulative total of -5.6 of negative WAR using addition by subtraction based on that roster purge.
If you used last year’s pythagorean of 70-wins, the team was lucky by one win. FanGraphs is projecting four players at -0.1 WAR (-0.4 cumulative) for the 2025 roster, and they are all in the bullpen. Add back that -5.6 addition by subtraction, and the team should win 75-games this year using that logic. That does not include the WAR of any of the new acquisitions (+4.6) or the departure of the four departing players with positive WAR (+4.0 WAR), nor full seasons from James Wood and Dylan Crews. That is addition by addition. But it is not that simple, as strength of schedule has to be factored into the W/L calculation. Baseball Prospectus, in their PECOTA projections, have the Nats at 74 wins, and FanGraphs has the Nationals at 73-wins. The differences are due to how they graded the Nats against their schedule, and specifically runs scored and runs allowed. On PECOTA, they have a -65 run differential, and on FanGraphs, their differential is at -73.
We want to look at the draft of last year as well as the upcoming draft, player development, the deadline trades, stand-out players from the 2024 roster, and the new roster additions. We will also look at whether or not the Nationals met their offseason goals with the understanding that the Nationals could still make some roster additions during Spring Training.
Some will judge the 2024 season by the Nats’ record of 71-wins, and only use that as their benchmark on the team. Some will judge by the stats. Some by the progress. Some by the promise. Some by what was not done. Some will find a way to see more of the failures than the successes. President of Baseball Operations and General Manager Mike Rizzo has rebuilt the Nationals before — and took the 2019 team to a World Series win. He can do it again by building a better mousetrap and not recreating the wheel -if- he gets the full support of ownership in allowing him to get what he wants.
Did Rizzo Get What He Wanted?
This is where everyone is a know-it-all, and only principal owner Mark Lerner and Rizzo know if the G.M. got the financial support from ownership that he requested. Rizzo specifically said that they weren’t signing QO’d players based on weighing the forfeiture of their second round draft pick this year plus losing $500,000 from their international free agency bonus pool. But Rizzo would not specifically discuss his budget.
Based on the current 40-man roster, the Nats CBT payroll is $125.5 million and about $12.8 million below last year’s CBT payroll per Cot’s. The Nats spent almost $40 million in new payroll this offseason, but removed $52 million from last year’s purge which included Patrick Corbin‘s nearly $23 million off the CBT books. The team could still add to roster with free agent signings, trades, and add minor leaguers to the MLB roster, like Colin Poche, and that will trigger additional payroll.
One major issue if ownership based their payroll budget on revenues was the bombshell decision to retroactively lower the Nats’ TV rights from MASN by 20 percent which resulted in a $14 million hit.
The Draft
When you look at the draft held in July of 2024, you have to look at the hirings of Danny Haas, Brad Ciolek, and Reed Dunn as the Top-3 in the restructured draft department. When Rizzo overhauled the department and went top-heavy, you could tell that he was ready for a different approach to the draft. The Nats received rankings of a B+ from evaluators with the third best draft in their rankings.
Of course the best way to evaluate a draft is years down the road when we see what the players actually accomplished. The team stocked up on middle infielders, catchers and relief pitchers — Rizzo said it was always about drafting the best players available. Three first round talents were acquired within the first three picks with Seaver King, Caleb Lomavita, and Luke Dickerson. More on Lomavita when we discuss the deadline trades.
For the upcoming 2025 MLB amateur draft in July, the Washington Nationals will be picking at No. 1 overall in the first round. Baseball America did a tremendous analysis of their projected first round picks and how each player can improve their draft stock. Let’s face it, every prospect has room to improve. Baseball America still has Jace LaViolette ranked as their top draft-eligible player. We learned yesterday that LaViolette has chosen the Boras Agency as his draft advisor. Whoever the Nationals select at No. 1 should instantly take the top spot in their farm system rankings as we expect Dylan Crews to graduate to rookie status in early April which will remove him from his prospect rankings.
Player Development
Fans and evaluators alike had been pessimistic about the Nationals ability to draft and develop players for most of the past decade. Before the trade deadline of 2021, the Nats farm system was barren and full of tumbleweeds. The farm system was ranked last in MLB at that time, and just two years removed from a World Series win.
Then the draft of Brady House in mid-2021, and a few acquisitions from a sell-off at the trade deadline breathed some air back into the near-lifeless system. But it was an infusion of talent — not player development that changed things initially. Of course last year, the Nats drafted Dylan Crews who is now the Nats’ No. 1 prospect as well as he is Top-5 in all of baseball.
Before this season, DeJon Watson was replaced by the youthful Eddie Longosz as the VP of Player Development, and the remaining prospects from the Juan Soto trade made large strides including James Wood to the No. 1 prospect in baseball, and pitcher Jarlin Susana to top of the farm rankings for pitching prospects in the Nats’ system. While Robert Hassell III fell back due to wrist injuries, the Soto trade has looked great for the Nats so far with MacKenzie Gore and CJ Abrams as the fourth and fifth pieces from that trade, and performing at the big league level.
Before Wood graduated from prospect status in August, Baseball America ranked the Nats’ farm system 4th in all of baseball, and today they have the Nationals as the 14th ranked farm system. What caused that huge drop? That is quite the fall after Wood graduated from his prospect status, and MLB Pipeline moved the Nats to 10th overall but that seemed low given the emergence of 2023 draft pick, Travis Sykora and Susana, plus the current draft class, and the prospects who were acquired from trades like Alex Clemmey, Cayden Wallace, and Tyler Stuart — just to name a few.
On MLB Pipeline’s Top-30 Nationals prospects, they re-did all of their rankings and Sykora jumped to No. 2 in the Nats’ system and Top-100 of all players. But they are certainly low on several players and undervaluing the Nats’ system overall. You can see some down-and-out players like 2022 No. 5 overall draft pick Elijah Green.
There is so much talent that the Top-30 cannot contain them all. We just added LHP Jake Bennett, DH T.J. White, Angel Feliz, and Jose Feliz to our Watch List for players who played at High-A to the DSL last year. Once Spring Training gets going, we will add at least one upper level prospect to our Watch List. Three that we are tracking now are RHPs Tyler Stuart, Chase Solesky, and Robert Cranz. To make our Watch List, players have to be outside the Top-10 in farm system picks by MLB Pipeline, and have no MLB experience. One player on the edge for us was Kevin Bazzell. You just have to keep the list at five or six players to keep it legit. These are players we expect to make jumps in the next rankings.
Here are the Nationals Top-30 prospects as ranked by Baseball America: 1. Dylan Crews 2. Travis Sykora RHP 3. Jarlin Susana RHP 4. Brady House 3B 5. Seaver King SS 6. Alex Clemmey LHP 7. Cade Cavalli RHP 8. Caleb Lomavita C 9. Cayden Wallace 3B 10. Daylen Lile OF 11. Luke Dickerson SS 12. Robert Hassell III OF 13. Jake Bennett LHP 14. Kevin Bazzell C 15. Angel Feliz SS/3B 16. Andrew Pinckney OF 17. Brayan Cortesia SS 18. Drew Millas C 19. Andry Lara RHP 20. Jackson Rutledge RHP 21. Zach Brzykcy RHP 22. Yohandy Morales 1B /3B 23. Elijah Green OF 24. Robert Cranz RHP 25. Tyler Stuart RHP 26. Daniel Hernandez C 27. Nasim Nunez SS 28. Cristhian Vaquero OF 29. Brad Lord RHP 30. Brayan Romero RHP
The 2024 Trade Deadline
When the Nats fell out of any reasonable chance of a playoff berth at the end of June, the team was back to sell-off mode. And this time they would dangle players with more than one-year of team control remaining like Hunter Harvey, Kyle Finnegan, and Lane Thomas as well as rentals like Jesse Winker and Dylan Floro. All but Finnegan was traded, and we all know he was non-tendered in the offseason. Rizzo and his front office staff got very creative in structuring deals, and that paid dividends in the Harvey trade.
Before the draft in early July, Harvey was traded to the Kansas City Royals for Wallace and a competitive balance draft pick — the only draft picks that can be traded. The Nats used that 39th overall pick to get Lomavita, the highest ranked catcher in the draft. For Thomas, the Nats got Clemmey, Jose Tena, and Rafael Ramirez Jr. from the Cleveland Guardians. For Winker, he went to the Mets for Stuart who just got promoted to Triple-A this week and was throwing a perfect game into the 7th inning yesterday. For Floro, Rizzo had a deal that fell apart per our sources, and pivoted to a deal with Arizona in which their GM, Mike Hazen, confirmed that the deal was so last minute that neither team was able to do physicals. The Nats got power hitting DH, Andres Chaparro, who made his MLB debut and tied an MLB record with three extra-base-hits in a debut. Tena was also up with the big league club and impressed with the bat — but not the glove. On the surface, it looks like Rizzo and their staff might have fleeced a bunch of teams. The Harvey trade, as we previously wrote, was 4-D Chess for the complicated foresight, and creativity to add to the success of that trade.
Stand-out Players on the MLB Roster
The top of the FanGraphs WAR told you the stand-out players with MacKenzie Gore, Luis Garcia Jr., Jacob Young, and Mitchell Parker leading the way. But also consider what Wood and Alex Call did in a partial season with their +1.2 WAR is impressive. While C.J. Abrams was expected to be the star of the team, his first half progress got him an All-Star team pick — but he was the polar opposite in the second half by batting well under Mendoza (sub-200 batting average) with too many chases outside the strike zone, and some bad defense at times.
Certainly Garcia, Young, Parker, Wood, D.J. Herz and Call were positive surprises. In fact Garcia was teetering on the edge of being a DFA during Spring Training, and he came into camp in great shape with improved defense and his brain engaged in almost every play. He has turned into a player who could have actually won a Silver Slugger and was ranked as the second best defensive player on the Nats.
“I know I was a little bit hard on [Garcia] in the beginning — but this is all him. He has done the work, and he’s reaping the benefits right now. I am going to keep him going. I want him to finish strong the rest of the season — but he’s been great.”
— Manager Dave Martinez said this week
For Young, he did not make the team out of Spring Training, and found himself getting an April callup due to an injury. He has turned in the best of baseball defensive stats, and should have won the Gold Glove if voting was done by the true stats. He also excels at baserunning and that has made him an elite dual-threat player. If he can hit for higher than .250 and take more walks to get his OBP above .325, he would be All-Star calibre. But keep in mind, Young was just a rookie. We hope Young can be an All-Star by taking more walks, and being less predictive on where his balls are hit to.
Then you have Call who told Dave Jageler in a pregame show on a Nats’ radio broadcast that he made adjustments in mechanics and mental approach that turned his game around. He got called up for the second time this season at the trade deadline to replace Winker, and Call had been en fuego ever since with a .413 OBP and .967 OPS last season until he ruptured his plantar fasciitis in his foot. He sees a lot of pitches and works walks like Soto, seriously. He just has the ability to foul off pitches and knows the strike zone.
With Wood, we knew he would be good but he started off slow from his July 1 callup until the All-Star break — but since then, he had been en fuego. Wood batted .288 with an .862 OPS in his final two months of the season. On top of that, Wood’s -4.0 OAA was a defensive liability in the month of July, and then was league neutral for the month of August and September. If Wood can improve coming in on balls more aggressively on defense, this Nats defense with Young and Crews could be the best outfield defensively in baseball.
How’s about the young pitching on this team with Jake Irvin as the team’s No. 2 in a mold of Jordan Zimmermann and looking every bit of the bulldog that JZim was during his MLB career. The two pitchers did not grow up far apart in Wisconsin and neighboring Minnesota. These extreme northerners share a lot in common.
Then you have the two rookie callups last season with Mitchell Parker and DJ Herz who were also products of the Nats’ player development system. Neither were on the radar as far as contributing to the big league team in 2024 — and both made their MLB debuts due to injuries on the roster. Both exceeded any reasonable expectations.
“You’re seeing really the development of four major league starters kind of coming together in the same season, which is unlikely to happen often.”
— Rizzo said on the Sports Junkies radio show
“I think that’s the biggest pro for me, the state of our pitching at the big league level, at the upper minor league level, and at the lower minor league level has never been better for us, and never flourished as much. We’ve never had as much depth as we have right now.”
With all of the stand-outs on the 2024 team, we hope to see them progressing more in 2025. If they can do that, this team might be a surprise team this season.
New Roster Additions
The Nationals spent over $40 million on these players: 1B Nathaniel Lowe ($10.3MM to $11.1MM salary), RHP Michael Soroka ($9MM), RHP Williams ($7.0MM), DH Josh Bell ($6MM), reliever Jorge Lopez ($3.0MM), LHP Shinnosuke Ogasawara ($2.1MM with posting fee), UT Amed Rosario ($2MM), and Rule-5 reliever Evan Reifert ($860K with the Rule-5 fee).
On top of that, Rizzo acquired several players on minor league deals with non-roster invites (NRI) to Spring Training. If any of them make the Opening Day roster, their salaries will be added to that $40 million mark. Here are those NRI pitchers: LHP Colin Poche, LHP Konnor Pilkington, and RHP Clay Helvey.
Overall Thoughts
In a losing season, it is usually difficult to pick-out the positives. But the 2024 season was a season of hope and watching “Hope Row” come to the roster led by the Nats’ youth movement with the promotions of Wood and Crews as well as Young and Garcia joining the core for the future (per Rizzo) was a glimpse into the future.
With what Rizzo called his chance to make some “shrewd offseason acquisitions,” this team made some strides — however, as we showed, the departure of Lane Thomas, Dylan Floro, Hunter Harvey, and Kyle Finnegan was also a loss of their combined +4.0 WAR, and the new acquisitions only have a +4.6 WAR projection without Shinnosuke Ogasawara who was not included in FanGraphs 2025 WAR projections.
Overall, we thought that manager Dave Martinez made some reasonable comments on his offseason goals, and the team did not add (so far) the third baseman he coveted. The offseason did not go far enough and ESPN ranked it a C-.
“We’re definitely looking for corner [infield] guys, we really are. We need to fill that first base void. … Like I said, we’ve got our feelers out. We’re talking to a lot of different guys. We’ll see what transpires.”
— Martinez said during the Winter Meetings
“We’re definitely looking for some
power bats at both corner spots. … We’ll see what transpires.”
Of course by having a losing record in 2024 and missing the playoffs, the Nationals were eligible for the draft lottery, and came up big with the No. 1 draft pick and that will give the team another great opportunity to add some more blue chip draft picks to their system at the 2025 MLB Draft.
As Rizzo also said, the future is bright, and you can see the light at the end of the tunnel. While we stress over the paper projections — the game is played on a field, and the real numbers will be seen when the actual games are played. We will see how well the Nats did in the upcoming 7.5 months. So for now, hope springs eternal.
