In most years, Mike Rizzo, the President of Baseball Operations and General Manager of the Washington Nationals, likes to have all of his offseason business finalized before he meets with season plan holders to give his Hot Stove speech at the State of the Nationals event. This year, that date is January 25th .
In fact, last year, Joey Gallo, was signed days before the 2024 event pending his physical which he did on January 27. There are still three Top-10 ranked free agents unsigned as of this writing with Alex Bregman, Anthony Santander, and Pete Alonso. They are all waiting for the right offer. Sometimes, the right offer was the deal you turned down a month ago and is no longer available. This is an opportunity for a team like the Nationals to be the mystery team to shock the baseball world like Ted Lerner did on January 15, 2015 with the Max Scherzer signing.
Also consider, the Washington Nationals’ 40-man roster is at full capacity. But don’t fret, there are several names of players who could be axed off the roster — if needed. In addition, once Spring Training starts, expect at the very least, that Josiah Gray and Mason Thompson will be placed on the 60-day IL to open up another two spots.
Those IL spots will allow Rizzo to sign some players to minor league deals, especially relief pitchers, in the hope that one or more will impress enough to make the Opening Day roster.
Last year, we heard about the youth movement, and that Rizzo was making it a priority in not blocking prospects. He was true to his point as he DFA’d players and promoted both James Wood and Dylan Crews to his starting outfield.
Also, we heard Rizzo at the 2024 Hot Stove State of the Nationals event with this quote: “I don’t care how fast you throw ball-4.” As funny as it sounded, the pitching staff improved in 3-ball counts, and the staff lowered their walks from 592 to 473. That was a substantial improvement for a pitching staff that moved to the 9th best in all of baseball in FIP.
Not only did that point about ball-4 become a sign, it was posted on several signs in the bullpen at the Nationals Spring Training facility at Cacti Park of the Palm Beaches. Rizzo’s second best line was that pitchers were told that going deep into counts is a ticket to Rochester.
But getting back to the roster, we are in a holding pattern circling around with little sourced information on how this 2025 roster will look for Spring Training next month with several spots open with competitions that will have to be turned into tough decisions prior to Opening Day.
As of now, we will give you our best projections for the 2025 Opening Day roster as we are just 79-days away.
Starting Lineup:
- First Base: Nathaniel Lowe was acquired via trade from the Texas Rangers. This is a lock.
- Second Base: Luis García Jr. is expected to continue as the every day second baseman, showing promise from his breakout season in 2024.
- Shortstop: CJ Abrams is set to be the starting shortstop, with expectations of him maturing from the off-the-field issue he had last year that resulted in a demotion in the final week of the season.
- Third Base: This is a position of need. Beginning in 2020, the third base position cumulatively posted a -0.9 WAR at third base since 2020 after Jeimier Candelario’s four month production in the 2023 season was removed. Even if you left Candelario in those numbers, the Nats cumulatively were a +2.1 with all third baseman which is the worst in all of baseball in that time span. Yes, the Nationals have to solve third base, and as of now, José Tena is the only player with MLB experience at that position. Top prospect, Brady House, is looking like the heir apparent. Now all bets are off if Rizzo somehow is able to sign Bregman.
- Left Field: Wood is projected to be the left fielder.
- Center Field: Jacob Young is expected to win the center field job.
- Right Field: Crews is set to take over permanently in right field, having been highlighted as the top prospect in all of baseball.
- Designated Hitter: Josh Bell will most likely serve as the designated hitter.
- Catcher: Keibert Ruiz is locked in as the starting catcher, with either Riley Adams or Drew Millas as the backup.
Starting Rotation:
- The starting pitchers for 2025 are expected to include Jake Irvin, MacKenzie Gore, and Mitchell Parker or DJ Herz, with Trevor Williams and Michael Soroka taking the final two spots. That is six names for five spots.
Bullpen:
- The bullpen situation is less clear, with the need for at least one more proven arm to stabilize the back-end of the bullpen after the departure of Kyle Finnegan. Right now, you would say Jose A. Ferrer and Derek Law will be two back-of-the-bullpen arms. You really want at least one more reliever with closing experience to solidify the bullpen.
Key Notes:
- While you could pencil in 19-names today for the Opening Day roster, a lot can change if additional acquisitions are made. There will be a competition for the final spot in the starting rotation, three spots in the bullpen, the back-up catcher role, and the final two bench spots. The hope is that Martinez will get the third base upgrade he was asking for.
- The team has considerable payroll flexibility with the fan’s hope of aiming to add that third baseman upgrade, at least one high-leverage reliever, and more minor league depth.
Overall, the 2025 Nationals roster seems to be balancing the development of young talent with targeted acquisitions to push for contention. If you use FanGraphs as a reference point, they have the 2025 Nationals at 76-wins (.467 winning percentage) based on today’s personnel. While that number will not get you to contention on paper, this team seems to be following the blue print of the 2015 Houston Astros and the 2022 Baltimore Orioles. Some might say that those teams copied the blueprint of the 2011 Washington Nationals, and those blueprints start years before the success.
We remain in wait-and-see mode in case Rizzo makes additional free agent signings and/or another trade. As of now, we can debate if the Nationals are emerging from their rebuild that began in July 2021. Hopefully in hindsight, there will be a retrospective agreement that the Nats were smart in the rebuild when the results of the future were actually pre-determined by decisions made in the past. That only happens if it works! Rebuilds that include “tanking” are certainly painful. A long span of winning going forward will solve everything.
