There is a penalty for signing a free agent who had a qualifying offer (Q.O.) attached. The Washington Nationals would have to forfeit their second-highest draft pick of the 2025 draft if they signed a QO’d free agent.
Actually, the full penalty to the Nats if they signed a QO’d free agent would translate to forfeiting their second round draft pick at approximately pick No. 49, and also $500,000 would be reduced from the Nats’ bonus pool during the Jan. 2026 international signing period.
That potential No. 49 draft pick would be near the top of the second round. While that hurts, there are only a dozen players ever picked at No. 49 that put up a career of 2.5 WAR or more. The most notable pick in that slot was Carlos Beltran in 1995, and in the past 15-years, only one pick, Jesse Winker, has put up those minimal numbers of 2.5 WAR or more in their career. In the past 60-years of drafts, your odds of signing a star at No. 49 is not too good.
If general manager Mike Rizzo’s hesitation of signing a QO’d player is due to losing that draft pick, it should be measured against the free agent you intend to sign. That’s the cost of making your roster better in the near-term.
In total, 13-players got qualifying offers this year — and one player accepted the $21.05 million Q.O. one-year deal to stay with his current team, leaving a dozen players to go to free agency. Of those players, six remain unsigned, and that includes two names attached to the Nats with Alex Bregman and Anthony Santander.
It was officially reported that Gleyber Torres signed for $15 million for 1 year with the Tigers. He was not a QO’d player. It was encouraging that Rizzo was trying to sign him per Jon Heyman, who went on to say that Rizzo wanted him to play third base and Torres refused. While you could say Torres has a good bat, his glove is below average.
Analytically, the Nats might be fortunate that Torres went elsewhere given how poor the Nats left-side defense was the worst in the Majors. That is the triangle of shortstop, third base, and left field. CJ Abrams, at shortstop, ranked as the worst defender in baseball per OAA.
Spitballing here, for a few million more than Torres got paid, why not go for Santander and then sign Josh Rojas for 3rd base where you get excellent defense and a player that has offensive stats like Jacob Young. You have potential Gold Glovers all over the field. This also gives you a spot for when Brady House is ready for his promotion to MLB to play third base. Your lineup and positional roster could look like this:
1. CJ Abrams SS LH
2. Dylan Crews RF RH
3. James Wood LF LH
4. Anthony Santander DH SH
5. Nathaniel Lowe 1B LH
6. Luis Garcia Jr. 2B LH
7. Keibert Ruiz C SH
8. Josh Rojas 3B LH –> Brady House 3B RH
9. Jacob Young CF RH
Bench: Riley Adams C RH, Alex Call OF RH, Jose Tena IF LH -or- Nasim Nunez IF SH, Juan Yepez 1B RH -or- Andres Chaparro 1B RH
Or what if you signed Bregman as your QO’d free agent? He would cost at least $5 million more per season than Santander. But this lineup looks a lot better than the one above. Now if you believe House is the “real deal” and you want to wait for him — that is another way to look at -or- you get creative as Don H. came up with a solution of eventually you move Bregman to second base and you trade Garcia at that point when House is ready. Remember, Bregman was a shortstop in college and his agent, Scott Boras, already spoke about Bregman moving eventually to second base. That gives you even more long-term stability since Garcia is a free agent after the 2027 season.
1. CJ Abrams SS LH
2. Dylan Crews RF RH
3. James Wood LF LH
4. Alex Bregman 3B RH
5. Nathaniel Lowe 1B LH
6. Luis Garcia 2B LH
7. Keibert Ruiz C SH
8. Jose Tena LH DH
9. Jacob Young CF RH
Bench: Riley Adams C RH, Alex Call OF RH, Nasim Nunez IF SH, Juan Yepez 1B RH -or- Andres Chaparro 1B RH
Those are two options if you sign a QO’d player. Of course there are still trade possibilities like Rizzo pulled off to get Lowe. If Nolan Arenado would change his mind and add to the Nationals to his trade list, that would be a good possibility. Other ideas would be a package deal trade with the Diamondbacks for Eugenio Suarez and Jordan Montgomery. Maybe there is a package to get pitcher Luis Castillo from the Mariners or Pablo Lopez from the Twins. There are many options out there and time to do it. As you remember, Corbin Burnes was traded on Feb. 1 before last season.
Getting that extra bat is important to this lineup. We gave you two viable lineups and there are probably many other scenarios. In the meantime, we wait.
