Part 2 of our Point-CounterPoint. We are addressing pitching. Part 1 was What Position Players to Sign, That is the Question – Point CounterPoint 1 of 2. One of the biggest holes defensively and in terms of the lineup was addressed with the trade for Nathaniel Lowe.
Spring Training camp officially opens in 60-days. This is a good time to talk about that one impactful signing that Washington Nationals fans are hoping for at this time of year. This makes the perfect time for another Point-CounterPoint debate and discussion. For convenience we’ve repeated our personal opinions about what we want to see in 2025.
Don: I want to see improvement in 2025. Getting to .500 and being in the mix for the postseason in late August and September would be great. But I will be content with well-played and smart baseball.
Steve: I am going to be greedy here as I want more than a .500 record. I want a winning record with real talk about contending for a Wild Card spot. I know that is lofty, but you have to shoot high. For me 82-80 is my minimal hope. Fangraphs has the Nats at 75-87 after the Nathaniel Lowe acquisition. That means +7 wins to get to a winning record. That is a tall order on paper.
Andrew: That is +11 wins from the 2024 season. A huge step forward. I will feel better if the Nats sign some impact players to the roster. Yes, players. Plural.
Starting Pitchers
This list is unsigned starters from MLBTR’s 2024-25 Top 50 MLB Free Agents With Predictions along with their rank and projection. Note the HM denotes Honorable Mention.
-2. Corbin Burnes: Seven years, $200MM
-8. Jack Flaherty: Five years, $115MM
-25. Andrew Heaney: Two years, $24MM
-28. Nick Pivetta: One year, $21.05MM.
-31. Jose Quintana: Two years, $20MM
-33. Max Scherzer: One year, $16MM
-41. Kyle Gibson: One year, $13MM
-45. Justin Verlander: One year, $12MM
-50. Spencer Turnbull: One year, $7MM
-HM. Charlie Morton
-HM. Clayton Kershaw
-HM. Lance Lynn
-HM. Trevor Williams
Don: I’ve love to go after one of the top pitchers. But I am afraid of long-term deals for pitchers. Too much risk for too much money. Flaherty for 4/$100M is something I would have to think about. I would be fine with Trevor Williams or Kyle Gibson on a 2/3 year deal and Max Scherzer on a 1 year deal. I include incentives to Max’s deal. Both games started and games appeared in. Max probably thinks he is a starter. I am not so sure. By offering incentives from the perspective of a starter and a reliever allows Max to rationalize moving to the bullpen. I suspect he would be a lights-out closer.
Steve: Flaherty was my guy in September. Watching him fail in the postseason got me nervous. He put a lot of mileage on his arm. Walker Buehler was my target and he signed a 1-year deal. I probably would pivot back to Trevor Williams. I say this because I don’t believe the money will be enough to get Nick Pivetta and certainly not Corbin Burnes.
If the Nats went for Max Scherzer, I think it would have to be an incentives deal.
Andrew: With signing Michael Soroka, I am not even sure the Washington Nationals make any other signings of starters except on minor league deals. Maybe Rizzo has a trade for Jordan Montgomery or Mitch Keller as trade targets. Trevor Williams just makes so much sense. With out that, I expect MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, DJ Herz, Soroka, and Mitchell Parker to be the Opening Day starting rotation with Cade Cavalli and some minor leaguers as depth.
I believe Joan Adon is out of options. Does he go into the bullpen? And what do they do with Jackson Rutledge?
Don: The one starter I’d love for Rizzo to go after is Roki Sasaki. Time to break ground and sign a guy from Japan or Korea. As I have said in comments, the Nats should contact the Japenese Embassy and promise them a free suite if they help convince Sasaki to sign with the Nats. They can tell him what DC is like and promise him that they will be following him closely and attending his games. There is always a first time. Lets make Sasaki that first time.
Steve: Now that would be a good time for that given he’d be part of international signing money.
Andrew: Sign me up.
Relief Pitchers
Likewise here is the list of relievers. Note that if a pitcher was both a reliever and starter he is listed here if the number of games in relief was more than the number of starts.
-14. Tanner Scott: Four years, $56MM
-18. Jeff Hoffman: Four years, $44MM
-22. Carlos Estévez: Three years, $27MM
-34. A.J. Minter: Two years, $16MM
-38. Kirby Yates: One year, $14MM
-40. Andrew Kittredge: Two years, $14MM
-42. Tommy Kahnle: Two years, $13MM
-47. David Robertson: One year, $11MM
-48. Shinnosuke Ogasawara: Two years, $12MM
-HM. Kenley Jansen
-HM. Paul Sewald
-HM. José Leclerc
-HM. Chris Martin
-HM. Jakob Junis
Don: With the trade of Robert Garcia to get Lowe, the BP needs to be addressed. But I am of the opinion that relievers are fungible and they can have dramatic turn-arounds from one year to the next. The list of relievers above is pretty long so I would be tempted to wait until Spring Training before I sign more than 1 or 2 relievers.
Steve: Jansen would be interesting to consider given that the Nats were all over tryimg to get him once upon a time. The Nats could use two bullpen arms. While Kyle Finnegan isn’t on that list, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him back. Plenty of good names on there.
Andrew: This is where Rizzo has to get his closer, and I agree, Fimnegan could return. Trusting saves only to Jose A. Ferrer seems a lot like 2012 with Drew Storen — it’s great until it isn’t. I would get another starter with a proven track record to ease Ferrer into that role.
Conclusion: The list of starters and relievers in the MLBTR top 50 is pretty long. Who knows when signing will speed up? And it is worth noting that the list of available for starters and relievers is even longer. 2025-26 MLB Free Agents from MLBTR lists them all. So plenty of time to debate who Rizzo should sign. So please weigh in with your opinions.