The Washington Nationals had a need for a Gold Glove first baseman — and they got him. The Nats traded for 29-year-old Nathaniel Lowe. He is controlled for two seasons right now and will be due a projected $10.4 million as an arb-eligible player. This first baseman was at the top of our wish-list.
We had first heard Lowe’s name as a trade target by the Nats (see tweet below) right after the Winter Meetings. We tweeted on this 11 days ago about the rumor. Per a source, the asking price was too high early in the offseason. Good on Rizzo for getting that trade value down to a point that the Nationals did not have to give up a top prospect for Lowe..
A name mentioned to us, Nathaniel Lowe, of the Texas Rangers, as a possible trade target. A good lefty bat with well above average defense. ✔️✔️https://t.co/aL19FlloSr.
Just this week, general manager Mike Rizzo has committed nearly $20 million to his 2025 payroll with the signing of Michael Soroka earlier in the week and Lowe today. Based on the objectives Rizzo set, this goes a long way to meeting the offseason goals — but the Nats had to trade lefty reliever Robert Garcia for Lowe. You have to think that Rizzo’s next move could be for a relief pitcher.
This week was busy for first basemen coming off the board with Christian Walker, Carlos Santana, and Paul Goldschmidt all finding new homes. Walker had a QO (qualifying offer) attached to him, and each of these players would be at least 34 years old before the 2025 season started. Given the type of first baseman that Rizzo coveted, the supply got low with only Pete Alonso remaining as a top target — but he really did not fit the criteria that Rizzo had set.
Expect to see future comparisons from Lowe to this year’s free agent class to grade how Rizzo really did in hindsight. FanGraphs is projecting a +2.1 WAR for Lowe for the 2025 season. That seems like a low bar to beat. Also, FanGraphs has moved the Nats to 75-wins in their newest projections that have his numbers imputed. Getting Lowe with two years of team control, at a value well below his true market value, because he is arb-eligible, will save money for the Nationals to fill other spots — even if they decide that have to do an overpay.
In 2024, Lowe once again showed his excellent first base defense with a +7 OAA, and that came a year after he won the AL Gold Glove. His 2024 wRC+ was 121, and that shows his value as a run producer. He also put up an impressive + 2.8 WAR for the 2024 season. Next to that Gold Glove in Lowe’s trophy case is a Silver Slugger Award from the 2022 season. As a member of the 2023 World Champion Texas Rangers, Lowe brings that pedigree to D.C. as a winner.
In 2024, Lowe ranked 6th in walks (71) and 9th in on-base percentage (.361). His .361 on-base percentage ranked second among American League first basemen, while his .762 OPS ranked third. Lowe’s 12.6% walk rate ranked fourth in all of MLB. Lowe also had better hitting splits on the road than at his home park in Texas in 2024. His road OPS was .775.
From the Winter Meetings, we heard from Rizzo as he spoke about the types of player(s) he covets. Obviously, Rizzo did not give any names, but he was specific enough on what type of player he wanted.
“[Our goal] is to [acquire] a veteran bat in the middle of the lineup, takes a little bit of pressure off of the young guys, and is important to us.”
“It makes a lot of sense to [acquire] a first base/DH type of guy — a run producer. … So if we go out there and get a left-handed bat to DH or to play first base, and also defense is going to be important to us at that first base position.”
— Rizzo said at the Winter Meetings
In previous conversations, Rizzo has said that he could acquire players via free agency or trade — so the Lowe acquisition comes as no surprise. The clues were that “defense is going to be important” for the “first base position” should be a key clue with “a run producer.” On the OAA Statcast list ranking defense, there’s Lowe near the top of the list.
The 6’4″ first baseman will be a big target for his infielders, and his Gold Glove defense is a welcomed addition to this team that ranked 5th to last in defense in 2024. Credit to Rizzo. He didn’t need to give up any top prospects for Lowe.
The Nats payroll just went to $111 million on the CBT payroll for 2024 with the addition of Soroka and Lowe. After the Lowe acquisition, the 40-man roster remained at 38 because Garcia is off the roster.
