The first base free agent crop had four key names to start the offseason with Christian Walker and Paul Goldschmidt now off the board. That leaves Pete Alonso (Qualifying Offer), Carlos Santana, and nearly a dozen others in a thinning list of top players.
With Walker and Santana as the reigning NL and AL Gold Glove winners, the Nats had an opportunity to push for Walker as what was rumored as their top target. But there were also rumors that Walker was looking for a deal of four years as a 34-year-old. He finally settled for a 3-year, $60 million deal with Houston. Actually, all but one player on that free agent list will be at least 30 years old by the mid-season in 2025.
From the Winter Meetings, we heard from the Nats’ general manager Mike Rizzo speak in descriptions of the types of player(s) he covets. Obviously, Rizzo did not give any names, but maybe he hinted enough that Walker was not the main player he wanted given that he is not left-handed.
“[Our goal] is to [acquire] a veteran bat in the middle of the lineup, takes a little bit of pressure off of the young guys, and is important to us.”
— Rizzo said at the Winter Meetings
“It makes a lot of sense to [acquire] a first base/DH type of guy — a run producer. … So if we go out there and get a left-handed bat to DH or to play first base, and also defense is going to be important to us at that first base position.”
In previous conversations, Rizzo has said that he could acquire players via free agency or trade. The clues are that “defense is going to be important” for the “first base position” should be a key clue with “a run producer” and you look at the OAA Statcast list and get your shopping list right at the top with Walker off the list, and Nathaniel Lowe, the 2023 AL Gold Glove winner as a possible trade target.
- Carlos Santana +14 OAA Gold Glove AL 2024, First Base, wRC+ 114, +3.0 WAR
- Nathaniel Lowe +7 OAA Gold Glove AL 2023, First Base, wRC+ 121, + 2.8 WAR
Let’s talk about those two players. Each are excellent defensive first basemen who put up impressive numbers on runs created. While Santana is a free agent, Lowe is not. But it was rumored that he might be available for trade. Santana is not QO’d however he is going to be 39 years old in April. Lowe is only 29 years old, but he will probably cost a package of players similar to what the Rangers just gave up to acquire Jake Burger. Those prospects ranked in the mid-teens to upper-twenties in Miami’s system per MLB Pipeline. Think Angel Feliz, Cristhian Vaquero, and Brad Lord as comps to that trade.
Now consider that Lowe is a lefty batter, and Santana a switch-hitter. Rizzo did mention something about a left-handed bat — but that could be a DH. The choices are narrow. You have Anthony Santander who would be an OF/DH, and he is a switch-hitter with a 129 wRC+ that ranked him the 29th best player in the majors. He is also a QO’d player which is a negative. Another name out there is a familiar one in Jesse Winker. He is left-handed and put up a wRC+ of 118.
Depending on the budget and player availability, those are some names for you. There are plenty more players available that don’t check every box. While Pete Alonso is potentially a big bat as a free agent, we didn’t include him in that chart due to his below average defense. Plus he is QO’d and will be expensive.
Nats’ manager Dave Martinez was not shy about putting his wish list out there. His words expand that he would take a third baseman. The most impactful position player available in free agency is Alex Bregman at a projected +4.1 WAR, and he just won the Gold Glove. Bregman is also QO’d and would take a high 9-digit offer to sign him. He has deep ties to Washington, D.C. as well as the fact that he has already been a mentor to Dylan Crews and Mitchell Parker. And Bregman is the type of veteran leader that Martinez has wanted. Another name is Josh Rojas who was non-tendered by Seattle. He will be 31 in June, and put up defense nearly as good as Bregman in the 2024 season. Rojas had a down year in 2024 as a left-handed bat, but put up a .721 OPS in 2023.
“We’re definitely looking for corner [infield] guys, we really are. We need to fill that first base void. … maybe DH as well. Like I said, we’ve got our feelers out. We’re talking to a lot of different guys. We’ll see what transpires.”
— Martinez said at the Winter Meetings
“We’re definitely looking for some
power bats at both corner spots, maybe a DH spot. We’ll see what transpires.”
Those are a lot of names that fit. If we put dollar numbers to each, you start to feel squeezed immediately in the wallet — plus the competition is fierce for Bregman and other top players. Supply and demand are certainly in play here as prices can get pushed up.
Because Lowe is arb-eligible with an estimate around $10.4 million, his number is a little easier to get to. Winker might be in the $6 to $8 million range and the same for Santana. Then you have Santander in that $20 to $25 million range, and Bregman pushing $27 to $30 million. You certainly don’t want to sign two QO’d players, but what if you did Bregman, Lowe, and Winker and spent $44 million? Based on FanGraphs 2025 WAR projections, that would give you WAR values of 4.1 + 2.4 + 1.6 = +8.1. That would most likely get the Nationals to a winning record in 2025 if that WAR is additive.
All of this is really about building a complementary roster with inproved defense and offense. With those top defenders mentioned above, they will make their pitchers better as their ERAs would trend closer to their FIP numbers due to the improved defense. With Jacob Young in center field, Crews in right field, an improving James Wood in left field, and a Gold Glove defense at the corner infield — this defense could soar from the bottom-5 to the top-5. By the way, the Washington Nationals finished with the 9th best pitcher’s FIP in all of baseball at 3.94. To take the FIP discussion a step further, all of the pitchers over a 4.00 FIP are not projected to be on this 2025 roster except for Jake Irvin. The improvement, with defense as a focal point, could be transformative to the ’25 Nationals.
So far, the Nationals have acquired two players on MLB deals with reliever Evan Reifert and reliever/starter Michael Soroka. You hope there are two bats to impact the middle of the order. When Rizzo spoke to the media at the Winter Meetings, his message was a little different from his September comments to Bill Ladson of MLB.com.
“We need some offense. We need a couple of bats that can hit in the middle of the lineup — and take the onus off some of these good young core players and assist them in the run creation of our offense.”
— Rizzo said to Bill Ladson of MLB.com in mid-September
“We have the core players to be middle-of-the-lineup hitters. If we add a bat or two into that group, it takes a little bit of pressure off everybody — and everybody can relax a little bit more and develop into the players we think they are going to be.”
In September, Rizzo was thinking a bat or two, and at the Winter Meetings he spoke about a bat — singularly. There are still some great names out there. Keep an open mind about that — even if Rizzo pivots to his Plan B or C.
Statistically, Santana and Lowe would check those boxes that Rizzo set at the Winter Meetings. If these players could match or beat their 2024 WAR of 3.0 and 2.8 respectively, that would be a real plus for the 2025 team. Critics of the Nats would surely complain about Santana’s age, but he put up the best defense of his career, and his WAR that was better than all but 62 position players in baseball — and better than Matt Olson, Cody Bellinger, and Alonso as other players who manned first base.
Pivoting to other players could make sense — especially if it frees up money for other acquisitions like the DH and starting rotation and bullpen.
