Right after the draft lottery, we sent out a congratulatory message to Matt Adams who was the Washington Nationals representative at the MLB Draft Lottery when the Nats won the first pick in the 2025 MLB Draft. The Nats had just 10.2 percent odds of winning the first pick in the lottery.
We also messaged some of our sources in the Washington Nationals organization about the draft. One bit of advice we got back was basically a “pump the brakes” message to all of the quotes and social media posts that might have implied that Ethan Holliday was a lock for the first pick. Our source’s message went on to say, “it could be him,” but nothing will be decided for a while. That seems prudent. The MLB Draft will be held on July 13, 2025.
“It’s a strong class, a deep class, so any time you get that much flexibility you have a ton of options to get creative. We will get a lot of really good players, the difference between 1 and 4 is a top-100 prospect.”
— said a source who requested anonymity
That gives you some real insight into the thinking about a 2025 draft class that might be short at the top for that “sure thing” superstar, but deep in talent. The key as always is drafting the right players that you can develop in your specific organization. Unless you are a Stephen Strasburg or a Paul Skenes, both 1-of-1 picks, few players are drafted without needing some minor league development before they are sent to make their MLB debut. While both Strasburg and Skenes spent some time in the minors, both could have gone directly to the MLB without any minor league seasoning.
“I think if you’re the Nationals, having walked away with the No. 1 and No. 2 picks in three years, and having positioned themselves with more money with the deal with the Royals in 2024, the organization couldn’t have maneuvered the last three years much better. That 2023 Draft was historic and anybody picking in the top 4 or 5 picks was going to come away with the best prospect from any of these three drafts combined.”
— Joe Doyle from FFS Plus told me
What Doyle is referring to is that the Nats had the No. 2 pick in the 2023 draft and selected Dylan Crews then last year the team traded Hunter Harvey to the Royals for Cayden Wallace but also received the Royals’ tradeable competitive balance pick at the end of the first round, and the Nats drafted catcher Caleb Lomavita with that pick. Now of course, the Nats hold the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft based on winning the draft lottery.
“I’m not terribly inclined to say who I’d draft No. 1 in 2025 just yet because, frankly, there isn’t a standout franchise-altering player at the top — yet. And the top prospect will genuinely differ for every organization depending on their strengths.”
— Doyle said to us
“I think there’s a case to be made for five or six different guys as worthy No. 1 pick candidates. I’ll say this, however, Jamie Arnold fills a void the Nationals organization currently lacks. High-end, advanced starting pitchers who could contribute as early as 2026. They need that. This isn’t a case of drafting for need either. There’s a very fair argument Arnold is the top player available in the 2025 Draft.”
If you do not know who Jamie Arnold is, all you have to do is watch this video (below) with Arnold and Joe Doyle that will tell you a lot about him as a person and a student of the game, and this is what you can’t see on film or watching him in-person at Florida State.
In this draft class, Arnold is without a doubt the top left-handed pitcher in this draft at this point in time. You can certainly debate whether Arnold is the best pitcher going up against Tyler Bremner and Seth Hernandez. In the next tier you have Kruz Schoolcraft, a high school two-way player. Most sites have a combination of Holliday, Jace LaViolette, or Cam Cannarella at the top for position players. So clearly the evaluators can’t agree. Baseball America (graphic below) has Holliday and MLB Pipeline has Holliday, LaViolette, and Arnold as their 1-2-3.
What you will see happen over the next 206 days until the first pick of the draft is announced is how many different names appear in the Top-10 and possibly even the No. 1 pick.
“There’s talent in every Draft, but to this point no one in the 2025 class has asserted himself like Travis Bazzana, Charlie Condon and Jac Caglianone did last year. Or like Paul Skenes, Dylan Crews, Wyatt Langford, Walker Jenkins or Max Clark did in 2023.”
— Jim Callis wrote last month on MLB Pipeline
“MLB Pipeline will release a 2025 Draft Top 100 in December, with Texas A&M outfielder LaViolette likely ranking atop the college crop and Stillwater (Okla.) HS shortstop Holliday headlining the high schoolers. LaViolette fits the classic right-field profile with his prodigious power and strong arm. Holliday has much more physicality and a higher ceiling than his older brother Jackson had at the same stage — and Jackson went No. 1 overall in 2022.”
“Yet both come with concerns. LaViolette struck out at a 24 percent clip last spring, while Holliday struggled more than expected on the summer showcase circuit (as did Jackson Holliday).”
This is the issue with some of the names in the 2025 draft class as Callis pointed out that some have issues. This is why Arnold might be the best player to fit quickly into an MLB player. LaViolette is aware of his K rate. He did an interview with Doyle and spoke to the issue and that he is already working with his new hitting coach to change his mechanics in order to increase his contact rates. That can be done, and LaViolette will have his “Junior” season at Texas A&M to get that K rate down. If he cannot, it would be a hard pass for me. You can’t take a “maybe” at pick No. 1.
The issue with scouting high school kids like Holliday is that you have to do it in-person when they are facing top competition. Watching highlight reels is like judging beauty from a touched-up “Glamour Shot” photo. You need to see the blemishes too as you have to know if the player can be easily developed. If not, this is where you get your busts.
Not every player can get fixed. Look no further than Elijah Green, a physical specimen, who was drafted at No. 5 overall by the Nationals in 2022. His high school swing & miss was a noted issue with a reported 20.4 percent K rate in his senior year at the IMG Academy. The Nats paid an overslot bonus of $6.5 million to sign Green in July 2022. Green struck out 41.6 percent of the time in 2023 in his first full pro season with 150 strikeouts in 361 plate appearances. If Green was the No. 500 pick, not the No. 5 pick, you could be more accepting of that K rate.
Throw caution to the wind because if you are not completely convinced like the Nationals were with Crews, find a player, who is not a “high risk” player. In that 2022 draft, we will see if Green ever meets his potential. With a new draft group in place last year, they might surprise you with their pick. General Manager Mike Rizzo, and his draft group led by Danny Haas, have to roll the dice and hit their number on the come-out roll. It is that simple.
