First of all, a happy 64th birthday to Mike Rizzo, President of Baseball Operations and General Manager of the Washington Nationals. Yes, we are about 15 hours early in Washington, D.C. for Riz’s birthday wishes, and right on time for the people in Brisbane, Queensland, Australia. You have to wonder what Mike’s wish is on this birthday? He already has the №1 pick in the 2025 MLB Draft, so if that wish were to be used for a new player acquisition, who would he wish for?
From the Winter Meetings, we heard from the Nats’ executive on the player(s) he covets. Publicly, he has not put a name to the player he detailed when asked about the players he needs for his 2025 lineup.
“[Our goal] is to [acquire] a veteran bat in the middle of the lineup, takes a little bit of pressure off of the young guys, and is important to us.”
— Rizzo said at the Winter Meetings
“It makes a lot of sense to [acquire] a first base/DH type of guy — a run producer. … So if we go out there and get a left-handed bat to DH or to play first base, and also defense is going to be important to us at that first base position.”
In previous conversations, Rizzo has said that he could acquire players via free agency or trade. The clues are that “defense is going to be important” for the “first base position” should be a key clue with “a run producer” and you look at the OAA Statcast list and get your shopping list right at the top:
- Carlos Santana +14 OAA Gold Glove AL 2024, First Base, wRC+ 114
- Christian Walker +13 OAA Gold Glove NL 2024, First Base, wRC+ 119
- Nathaniel Lowe +7 OAA Gold Glove AL 2023, First Base, wRC+ 121
Let’s talk about those three players. Each are excellent defensive first basemen who put up impressive numbers on runs created. While Santana and Walker are free agents, Lowe is not. But it was rumored that he might be available for trade. Walker is attached to a qualifying offer (QO) if signed by the Nationals and would result in forfeiting a draft pick around No. 49 in the early second round. Santana is not QO’d however he is going to be 39 years old in April. Lowe is only 29 years old, but he will probably cost a package of players similar to what the Rangers just gave up to acquire Jake Burger. Those prospects ranked in the mid-teens to upper-twenties in Miami’s system per MLB Pipeline. Think Angel Feliz, Cristhian Vaquero, and Brad Lord as comps.
Now consider that Lowe is a lefty batter, Santana a switch-hitter, and Walker is right-handed. Rizzo did mention something about a left-handed bat — but that could be a DH. The choices are narrow. You have Anthony Santander who would be an OF/DH, and he is a switch-hitter with a 129 wRC+ that ranked him the 29th best player in the majors. He is also a QO’d player which is a negative. Another name out there is a familiar one in Jesse Winker. He is left-handed and put up a wRC+ of 118.
Depending on the budget and player availability, those are some names for you. There are plenty more players available that don’t check every box. We didn’t mention Pete Alonso or Paul Goldschmidt as free agent first basemen due to their below average defense.
Nats’ manager Dave Martinez was not shy about putting his wish list out there. His birthday is in September, and while he doesn’t get a birthday wish now, his words expand that he would take a third baseman. The most impactful position player available in free agency is Alex Bregman at a projected +4.1 WAR, and he just won the Gold Glove. Bregman is also QO’d and would take a high 9-digit offer to sign him. He has deep ties to Washington, D.C. as well as the fact that he has already been a mentor to Dylan Crews and Mitchell Parker. And Bregman is the type of veteran leader that Martinez has wanted.
“We’re definitely looking for corner [infield] guys, we really are. We need to fill that first base void. … maybe DH as well. Like I said, we’ve got our feelers out. We’re talking to a lot of different guys. We’ll see what transpires.”
— Martinez said at the Winter Meetings
“We’re definitely looking for some
power bats at both corner spots, maybe a DH spot. We’ll see what transpires.”
Those are a lot of names that fit. If we put dollar numbers to each, you start to feel squeezed immediately in the wallet — plus the competition is fierce for Bregman and Walker. Supply and demand are certainly in play here as prices can get pushed up.
Because Lowe is arb-eligible with an estimate around $10.4 million, his number is a little easier to get to. Winker might be in the $6 to $8 million range and the same for Santana. Then you have Santander and Walker in that $20 to $25 million range, and Bregman pushing $27 to $30 million. You certainly don’t want to sign two QO’d players, but what if you did Bregman, Lowe, and Winker and spent $44 million? That would give you WAR values of 4.1 + 2.4 + 1.6 = +8.1.
That right there puts the Nationals into a winning team if that WAR is additive. But it is more than that with those players as they will make their pitchers better as their ERAs would trend closer to their FIP numbers due to the improved defense. With Jacob Young in center field, Crews in right field, an improving James Wood in left field, and a Gold Glove defense at the corner infield — this defense could soar from the bottom-5 to the top-5. By the way, the Washington Nationals finished with the 9th best pitcher’s FIP in all of baseball at 3.94. To take the FIP discussion a step further, all of the pitchers over a 4.00 FIP are not projected to be on this 2025 roster except for Jake Irvin. The improvement, with defense as a focal point, could be transformative to the ’25 Nationals.
Yes, that is what you wish for.
