Tick tock goes the clock as we head into the final evening of this year’s Winter Meetings. There have been some notable players on the move, from Juan Soto to Max Fried to the Garrett Crochet trade — but in all, there are still over 30 free agents unsigned in the Top-50 rankings.
Our Washington Nationals only MLB acquisition, so far, was a Rule-5 signing of reliever Evan Reifert from Tampa’s system. Don’t fret, this was a wildly successful Winter Meetings for the Nationals after they walked-off as the big winner in the MLB Draft Lottery last night with the grand prize. The Nationals secured the first pick in the 2025 MLB Draft, and that is a sizeable development. Because of that, General Manager Mike Rizzo and his staff will leave Dallas, Texas feeling good about themselves.
By the way, Rizzo has not been in Dallas twiddling his thumbs. He said that he has reached out to agents on many players, and in particular, he talked to agent Scott Boras “on a litany of [his] players.” But skeptical fans are looking for more than one-year signings of bounceback players like Joey Gallo, Eddie Rosario, Nick Senzel, and Jesse Winker. Add up what Rizzo spent on those players, and you would be half the way to a proven player — and the Nats are overdue for that type of signing. It is time that quality is a priority over quantity.
We are just over 60-days from the calendar turning from the offseason to the preseason (Spring Training). So while there is plenty of time to sign players, the fans are restless. The good news is that every player the Nats have been rumored to have interest in — those players are still available. The list includes Christian Walker, Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, and Anthony Santander. In the NY Post today, Joel Sherman reported that the Nats were interested in Gleyber Torres if he was willing to play third base. That feels like a large risk since Torres’s defense at second base was well below average.
In an interview yesterday, Rizzo made special mention that they were looking for a good defensive first baseman who could also be a run producer.
“[Our goal] is to [acquire] a veteran bat in the middle of the lineup takes a little bit of pressure off of the young guys, and is important to us.”
— Rizzo said yesterday
“It makes a lot of sense to [acquire] a first base/DH type of guy — a run producer. … So if we go out there and get a left-handed bat to DH or to play first base, and also defense is going to be important to us at that first base position.”
As we look at the attributes that Rizzo wants to check off on his list, he could be looking at a switch-hitter like Santander or even Carlos Santana. He could certainly go with Walker at first base, and Winker at DH. There are many ways to go depending on the budget. Sure, you would like Walker and Santander and spend over $40 million. Both Walker and Santana won Gold Glove awards this year at first base. If the Nats were interested in a trade, there are rumors that Nathaniel Lowe of Texas is available — and he is a Gold Glove first baseman and younger than all of the players named above.
What we have done is to put together a spreadsheet updated to the information we have now on different combinations of $/WAR.
If the theory that improved defense translates to better ERAs using the FIP as the guide from the 2024 season, then the Nationals should improve much more than the current 74-wins on FanGraphs plus the WAR shown here. Because FanGraphs can project wins based on FIP or actual runs, the Nats pitchers are not reaching their full potential because of the overall poor team defense. This is why if the team added Bregman plus Santana for a top corner defense, the pitchers will improve simultaneously. That’s a theory that has always worked. Better defense makes your pitching better. Going with Alonso at first base and Torres at third base would do the opposite. Maybe the team offense improves, but it could be at the expense of the defense and pitching.
Everything is about balance. All signs point to Bregman will give you the best $/WAR and he will also make the pitching better so it is exponential to the team’s win total. The next best choice seems to be Walker at first base with Santander at DH and hope that the Nationals can solve the third base part of the equation internally and possibly with top prospect Brady House.
Will the Nats complete a signing while in Dallas? The clock is ticking.
