The Washington Nationals had just a 10.2 percent chance of getting the first pick in the 2025 MLB Draft for amateur players, and their lottery ball got the team that first pick with that lucky bounce! This will land the Nationals a blue chip player for their future in what is shaping up to be a deep 2025 draft on July 13 during All-Star week in Atlanta.
Both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline have updated their rankings of 2025 top amateur draft-eligible players. The Top-4 names are the same on both lists — but in different orders, and the Nats will get to choose from those Top-4 names for the future like Ethan Holliday, Jace LaViolette, Jamie Arnold, and Tyler Bremner -or- others, as the Nats control the board.
On the stage, 2019 World Series champion, Matt Adams, was the Nats representative at the Draft Lottery. Once again, Big City came through for the Washington Nationals. General Manager Mike Rizzo said he found Adams earlier in the afternoon in the hotel lobby and asked him to rep the Nats. This was all by coincidence. Just before this in an MLB Network interview, Riz said that Danny Haas, his VP of amateur scouting, would be his rep. Lucky lucky as Adams delivered another walk-off home run for the Nats, but this time from a hotel conference room in the big city of Dallas, Texas.
You may ask, what was Adams, a retired player, doing at the Winter Meetings? He said he was looking for a job as a coach. Maybe Rizzo should hire him. Behind the scenes, the Winter Meetings hold a job fair, and former players and front office types attend to network — and to see old friends — and you never know who you will bump into.
The MLB Draft Lottery show is produced to be a showcase event for television on the MLB Network, and they reveal all 18 lottery picks starting from that point and working back to a Top-9 with many surprises. Both teams with the best odds, the Rockies and Marlins did not even make the Top-3. And that left the top pick up for grabs between the Nationals, Angels and Mariners. Then the Mariners name was revealed for Pick No. 3 leaving the next name as the automatic reveal of the first pick as the Angels were revealed as the No. 2 pick giving the Nationals the coveted No. 1.
Last year, the Nationals were ineligible for the No. 1 pick and their lotto ball showed they would have been the first pick — had they been eligible under the newest CBA rules. So maybe some vindication there.
“The most impactful guy is usually who I pick. … We will figure out a strategy on which way we’re going to go. We are in capable hands with Danny Haas, Brad [Ciolek], Reed Dunn, and those guys. “
— Rizzo said shortly after the Nats learned they were getting the first pick
“What I’ve learned from our [other one-of-one] picks is don’t get too ultra-focused on one player in one draft season. Have a wide scope and scour the country.”
“It’s great that we have the No. 1 pick in the Draft. We can take whoever we want, and we get the added bonus pool.”
For an organization that needed some excitement at the Winter Meetings, the MLB Draft lottery provided some positivity for the Nationals in an offseason with a lot of gray area. First round picks can change a team if you get a future superstar — and the Nats have done just that before.
The Nationals have chosen first in 2009 and 2010 when they drafted Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper in consecutive years. In 2023, the Nationals picked second in the first round and chose Dylan Crews. These are the picks that impact your team for years — and sometimes for more than a decade.
One thing you can say about Rizzo is that he has never missed at his time with the Nationals with a 1-of-1 draft pick. Some could say that Strasburg and Harper were no-brainers, and while true, some teams over-think it and have blown those top draft picks.
“We’re going to have good college and high school options. We did not expect to pick [number] one with the odds, but we did expect to have a high pick. Already lots of strategizing, this obviously increases our options.”
— Nats’ VP of amateur scouting Danny Haas said
We will have hundreds of debates over Ethan Holliday and Jace LaViolette like we did in 2023 when there was a thought the Nats could have had a choice between Paul Skenes, Crews, and Wyatt Langford. Most draft picks are fully analyzed in hindsight. The strategy for the 2025 draft will become clearer as we get closer to draft day in July.
As mentioned, per the 2022 CBA that is in effect now, the Washington Nationals will be ineligible to pick higher than pick No. 10 in the 2026 draft which is what happened to the Nationals in that 2024 draft. This is all part of the rules that were part of the anti-tanking initiatives in the current CBA.
Also per the current CBA, if you sign a free agent with a qualifying offer (QO) attached such as Alex Bregman, Christian Walker, Pete Alonso, Anthony Santander, etc., you no longer forfeit your first pick in the first round. That is protected. However, your second pick would be forfeited in the case of the Nationals if they signed a QO’d player this offseason. With the No. 1 pick in-hand, the Nats hold the No. 46 overall for their second round pick, and you would think at this point, they would feel a little more comfortable if they had to forfeit that pick and the slot value money with it.
For now, the Nationals and their fans can celebrate the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft.
Update: Odds of the results we saw actually happen:
This is based on the one million simulations performed by Don H. that with the Athletics and the White Sox not eligible, the 6 teams with the worst records included the Blue Jays and Pirates:
- The odds that the 6 teams with the worst records each got a top 6 pick in any order is 8.4%. That occurred in 84,141 times in the one million iterations.
- The odds that they got top 6 picks in order of their likelihood is .0472%. That happened 472 times in the one million iterations.
- The odds that all of the actual top 6 got a top 6 pick is .0049%. That happened 49 times in the one million iterations.
- The actual top 6 picks in order never happened in the one million iterations.
