Last year at this time, the Washington Nationals were getting projections of 64 wins by FanGraphs. As the Nats added new acquisitions in the offseason leading up to the 2024 season, the number got to 66-wins projected by FanGraphs and 58 by Baseball Prospectus. The Nats beat all of the algorithms and won 71-games.
We arrived in this offseason with some optimism based on the improvement in the pitching staff as the team went from a 5.02 ERA in 2023 to 4.30 in 2024. More encouraging statistics showed that the Nationals finished the 2024 season with the 9th best Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) in baseball at 3.94. FIP is directly affected by defense, and the Nats had a poor defensive season, finishing 5th to last in MLB. They had the worst left-side defense in baseball in 2024. Also consider that the Nats carried Patrick Corbin all season, and his 4.41 FIP raised the team’s average in the wrong direction. In theory, replacing Corbin with a better pitcher could improve the 3.94 FIP dramatically better — and better defense will make this team better in reality.
By FanGraphs standards, they calculate pitcher WAR (Wins Above Replacement player value) based on the FIP modeling during the season. That shows how good/bad a pitcher would be based on his defense.
The Nats entirety of all pitching for 2024 ranked 6th in the final WAR at a combined +17.4. You might think that FanGraphs would be at or near that +17.4 for their offseason WAR calculations for the 2025 Nats’ pitching staff — but they are not close. They are currently projecting most pitchers to be below their 2024 WAR, and they have the staff at +10.3 today. They have Cade Cavalli essentially taking the place of Corbin, and they gave Cavalli a +1.3 WAR with Jackson Rutledge and Brad Lord getting several starts in their modeling.
Now if you are trying to project wins and the standings, you need to go with reality, and the reality in 2024 was that the Nationals actually pitched to that 4.30 ERA which was the 8th worst in baseball. That is what happens when you have the 5th worst defense. The Nats were tied for the 7th worst in allowing runs to score, and a big part of that were the defensive errors that allowed 79 unearned runs to score which was the 3rd worst in baseball only ahead of the Marlins and Red Sox. The Nats .488 unearned runs allowed per game is basically a HALF RUN PER GAME just handed to the opposing teams. In a week, that is over 3.0 free runs just given to the opponents, not to mention the extra stress on the pitchers. Sure, errors are part of the game — but that is a ridiculous number. So yes, the pitching staff could be much better if the defense was better. Run prevention should have been closer to the FIP number.
When projecting wins for 2025, FanGraphs has the Nats at 75-wins and a .463 winning percentage. Those numbers will change throughout the offseason. That 75-win number is right in the range that we projected of 74-78 wins. Fix the defense, and this is easily a 78-win team. This is why you want to sign players to the weakest positions on the diamond. Okay, the Nats had the worst shortstop defense in baseball with CJ Abrams — and we already know that general manager Mike Rizzo is not making a change there as he stated several times. Abrams just has to improve through hard work, and evolve as a player defensively. His offense was very good in 2024. He also clearly has to evolve as a person after he was demoted for team personal conduct violations per reports.
Since the Nationals will not be replacing Abrams, how can they improve their defense? You have to look at third base which was weak, and Alex Bregman is available in free agency. He was the AL Gold Glove winner this year. Also, first baseman Joey Gallo is a free agent after his mutual option was declined by the Nationals. Both the AL and NL Gold Glove winners, Carlos Santana and Christian Walker are available in free agency.
As you can see, Rizzo could sign Gold Glovers for his corner infield and with a strong outfield defense led by Jacob Young and Dylan Crews, along with Luis Garcia Jr. and his improved defense at 2nd base — the only weakness would be shortstop if Rizzo acquires a Gold Glove infield corner defense. By doing that, the Nationals would get in theory, drastically improved ERAs as well as better pitching efficiency in pitch counts. Fewer baserunners due to better defense leads to fewer runs and fewer pitchers thrown.
For all of the chirping about the bad defense, the Nats had the best defender by OAA during the regular season in 2024 with Young in center field. He was snubbed and did not win the Gold Glove, but he showed what was possible. Crews made his debut in late August, and he showed why he won a Minor League Gold Glove this year as one of the three outfielders in the entirety of the minors to win the award. If James Wood can improve in left field, this could be the best defensive outfield in baseball in 2025.
We have been here before in an offseason with harsh discussions on the Nationals poor defense. After the 2022 season, Rizzo promised season ticket holders that the defense would be better for the 2023 season — and it was — but then it suffered in the 2024 season.
“We’re going to be a young, energetic group of guys. Defensively we’re going to be better — I promise you which makes our pitching staff better — I promise you. We’re going to be scrappy to try to score enough runs to win games. Our goal is to win. I’m not going to set a win number. … We want to have a swagger about us. … That’s my promise to you guys.”
— Rizzo’s promise after the 2022 season
That was a lot of promising, and the mistake was not sticking with the same plan for the 2024 season. Here is the video if you want to see/hear it from Rizzo’s speech two years ago:
As teams add free agents and make trades, the WAR and win projections will change. The best team in baseball per FanGraphs is Atlanta at 93-wins. We will see where all of this goes. The Nats have a chance to make acquisitions with a focus on offense and defense. We hope on paper that Rizzo can build a winning team that in actuality is a playoff contender.
In fairness, we are only three weeks into the offseason, and the Winter Meetings don’t start for another three weeks. Yes, we have to show patience, and put our faith in Rizzo and the Lerner ownership group to deliver real results.
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