The Washington Senators had a rich history of baseball in the nation’s capital for over 70 years.
The Bregman family lived in Washington D.C. before the Washington Senators were founded in 1901. His great-grandfather, Bo Bregman, was a boxing promoter and later became part of the ownership group with George Preston Marshall that moved the Boston Redskins to Washington, D.C. to become the Washington Redskins. Bo’s son, Stan Bregman, was chief legal counsel for the Washington Senators. He was also part of the recruitment to get Ted Williams to manage the Washington Senators in the late-1960s and successfully did that. Also in the 1960s, Stan’s son, Sam, was born. He would attend Walter Johnson High School in Bethesda, Maryland, and later play baseball at University of New Mexico. His son, Alex, would take the family’s love of baseball to the next level.
While Alex Bregman grew up in New Mexico, he still has family and many ties to Washington, D.C. Returning for the All-Star game in 2018 in Washington, D.C., it was a bit of a homecoming for Bregman’s family. The Nationals started with RFK Stadium as their home ballpark in 2005 — the stadium where his father sat on Ted Williams lap as a youngster, and the same stadium that they attended Redskins’ games. Today, Bregman is linked to Washington baseball as a free agent. He was shown as a fit in Bleacher Report in an article written back in September. TalkNats tweeted thoughts on a Bregman fit on the Nats.
Yesterday, ESPN linked Bregman to the Nats in free agent rumors. After winning the Gold Glove at third base, Bregman was a player we have been discussing as a fit for a while at TalkNats. The strategy to look at acquisitions who raise the level of defense is a definite plus. Pitching improves with defensive upgrades. A simple formula to grasp.
Bregman would also add to the offense, and it was revealed today that he had been playing with a bone chip. There was no other information if this was a factor in his 2024 season when he recorded the lowest OPS of his career at .768. Prior to the 2024 season, Bregman had a career mark of .861 for his OPS.
“The solution might be to give serious consideration to going the free agent route and pursuing Alex Bregman who is a Top-4 defender at third base as well as being an above average offensive player. The issue with Bregman will be the cost — and the fact that he turns 31 in Spring Training. Bregman would come in as a veteran team leader who already has a known relationship as a mentor to top prospect Dylan Crews as well as coincidentally with Mitchell Parker.”
— Steve Mears wrote on October 4
With Bregman, you get a team leader as an added bonus. As a tireless worker, Bregman also gives a lot of his time to teammates, other aspiring baseball players, and the community.
It is a small world. Bregman was mentoring Nats’ pitcher Mitchell Parker who was in youth baseball in New Mexico over 10 years ago.
When Dylan Crews chose to attend LSU, Bregman’s alma mater, he mentored Crews and was a phone call away if Crews ever wanted to talk. Both were No. 2 overall picks in their draft classes and have a lot in common.
“[Bregman] is a guy that I go to if I ever need any help or if I ever need to talk about something. Just, anything really, because he’s been through it. He’s a guy that I go to — and he’s been in my shoes in every situation, so I’ll call him up — and we’ll just have a good conversation of what to expect. He’s just a great dude, and I’m really happy he’s in my corner.”
— Crews said to MLB.com
While ESPN projects Bregman signing for 6 years, $187 million ($31.2M AAV), MLB Trade Rumors (MLBTR) has Bregs at 7 years, $182 million ($26M AAV). The average AAV is $28.6 million. The issue is we still do not know the budget that general manager Mike Rizzo has to work with. If we use $55 million as the number, you use up half of that with Bregman, and that would be a pivot away from signing Juan Soto and some other top free agents. MLBTR has Christian Walker at 3 years, $60 million ($20.0 M AAV). Walker, like Bregman, is also a Gold Glover. If the Nats acquired both Bregman and Walker, the Nats defense would almost certainly go from the bottom-5 in baseball to the top-5. But Rizzo would spend nearly his entire budget on those two players and would forfeit his second and third picks in the draft since both players were QO’d.
One alternative mentioned is a pivot from Walker to Carlos Santana. Somehow, Santana turned into a defensive whiz and won the AL Gold Glove, and bested Walker in OAA. That was Santana’s first Gold Glove in his long career, and he did it at age 38 along with smashing 23 home runs. The switch-hitter earned $5.25 million this year. His estimate for next year is 1 year, $6 million ($6.0M AAV).
What if you signed Bregman and Santana for $34.6 million combined and had $21 million more to spend? MLBTR has the top bullpen arm as Tanner Scott at $14 million per year. If you could shave off $2 million and sign him for $12 million per year, that would leave about $9 million for a veteran starting pitcher. Why not go back to Trevor Williams?
With the young Nats’ core, the team as it stands now should be a 76-win team with no additions, and full seasons of Crews (+1.4 WAR) and James Wood (+2.6 WAR). By the way, FanGraphs is bullish on CJ Abrams at +4.0 WAR for next season. Add Bregman at +4.1 WAR for 2025, Santana at +1.1 WAR for 2025, Scott at +1.0 WAR for 2025, and Williams at +0.9 WAR for 2025, and that is +7.1 WAR added.
All of that math would take the team to about 83-wins and a fringe Wild Card contender. By the way, Soto is projected at +6.8 WAR. The issues with Soto is adding negative defense, and his WAR would not be cumulative as he is still thought of as an outfielder. FanGraphs is already projecting Crews, Wood, and Jacob Young as the starting outfield. If you get Bregman, Jose Tena would shift to the primary DH, and right now the Nats have no first baseman.
If you use FanGraphs as your guide, Bregman plus Walker (+2.6 WAR for 2025) would give you +6.7 combined for $48.6 million in AAV. Spend the remaining $6.4 million on a bullpen arm and go with a reclamation pitcher like Joe Ross and a reliever like Ryne Stanek, and you get close to that +7.1 WAR for about the same money.
There will be a Plan A, Plan B, Plan C, etc. These are examples that are there to keep an open mind as you can see multiple combinations to spend $55 million and maximize your WAR value. My pick would be to go with Bregman, Walker, and ask for a larger budget so you are not counting on reclamation projects and add Williams to that and a lesser move for a reliever. My roster would have a CBT payroll of $165 million.
My 2025 lineup and roster would look like this:
Lineup:
- CJ Abrams SS
- Dylan Crews RF
- James Wood LF
- Christian Walker 1B*
- Alex Bregman 3B*
- Jose Tena DH
- Luis Garcia Jr. 2B
- Keibert Ruiz C
- Jacob Young CF
Starting Rotation:
- Trevor Williams RHP*
- MacKenzie Gore LHP
- Jake Irvin RHP
- DJ Herz LHP
- Cade Cavalli RHP / Mitchell Parker LHP
Bullpen:
- Kyle Finnegan Closer
- Jose A. Ferrer Setup
- Derek Law Setup
- FA*
- Tanner Rainey RHP
- Robert Garcia LHP
- Eduardo Salazar RHP
- Jackson Rutledge RHP
Bench:
- Drew Millas C
- Alex Call OF
- Nasim Nunez IF UTIL
- Juan Yepez / Andres Chaparro 1B/DH
* — denotes potential free agent
