The phrase, “Takes Two to Tango“, actually came from a song that was written and composed in 1952 by Al Hoffman and Dick Manning, and sung by Pearl Bailey in 1952. Since, it has been used in a lot of sports idioms. LeBron James recently said, “In free agency it takes 2 to tango.” Washington Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo has said the same before James, and what it means is that the team and player must both agree to “dance” to get a deal done. So here we are at the first weekend of Juan Soto‘s free agency, and contemplating who will be on Soto’s dance card.
While most think it is all about the money for Soto, there are always other factors such as team history, current status as a winner, taxes, friends, and family. The Nats have several advantages if the money is equal as the team has a history with Soto, building towards being a winner, reasonable taxes, and Soto’s brother, Elian Soto, is a minor leaguer with the Nationals. Maybe that won’t matter like it did with James and his ability to play with his son, Bronny, but it is a fact that the Soto brothers can only be together with one team — the Nationals. If you have that sense of déjà vu here, yes, the Nats had a minor leaguer named Bryan Harper, and he did not cause Bryce Harper to stay.
The Nats are tied for 8th in the Vegas odds to get Soto on DraftKings and other sportsbooks. On DraftKings, they don’t have the Phillies at the top of their chart. Some believe the Nats are top-3 behind the two New York teams. The odds differ at each sportsbook, and with different media members. Money is a key here. This is where the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold has to be a factor, and we will explain that below. You will be surprised to see which team has the highest payroll today. It is not the Mets, Dodgers or Yankees.
Remember, if a team is pushed into a 50 percent penalty on the CBT, a $45 million salary actually costs the team $67.5 million. That is an advantage the Nationals have as they are nowhere near the CBT cap of $241 million.
At this point, Soto won’t say much more other than all 30 teams are in the running. But we all know the Marlins, White Sox, Rockies, Rays, Pirates, and a few other teams have no shot. So let’s look at the Top-4 teams, the field, and the Nationals:
Yankees
Today, the Yankees are well under the CBT cap of $241 million, and they have option decisions with Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rizzo. Soto’s $31 is now off the books too. With Cole in the numbers and Rizzo out, the Yankees are projected at $53 million under the cap with needing to replace Soto, Rizzo, Gleyber Torres, Alex Verdugo, Clay Holmes, and Tommy Kahnle. Then the Yankees have a whole lot of arbitration money due, and that could add back $20 million easily.
They are really just $33 million under the CBT which would mean they still need a leadoff man/2nd baseman if they don’t sign Torres back and a first baseman without Rizzo, and they have no rightfielder or leftfielder without Soto and Verdugo. Okay, they probably will let Verdugo walk and count on their top prospect Jasson Dominguez.
Yankees have gaping holes at right field, second base, first base and their bullpen. That will all take lots of money. Soto alone would put the Yankees back over the CBT cap and start the penalties again. But of course the Yankees can make it work.
Dodgers
Today, the Dodgers are technically $5 million under the CBT cap of $241 million, and they have a few key arbitration players due for raises with Michael Kopech, Gavin Lux, Brusdar Graterol, and half of their bullpen. They really don’t have anyone to take off the roster to save money so with about $25 million in arbitration they are $20 million over before they address Teoscar Hernandez, Walker Buehler Jack Flaherty, Enrique Kiké Hernandez, Blake Treinen, Daniel Hudson, and others heading to free agency or in Hudson’s case, going to retirement.
You have to wonder if they will count on Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Tony Gonsolin for their starting rotation. Three of those four could not pitch in the postseason due to injuries. Who would be their fifth starter? They have holes, but they are the Dodgers and could probably afford to sign Soto plus a few and go right back above $300 million and pay the tax. Their CBT tax fee for 2024 is thought to be $102 million which is more than several teams spent on payroll in 2024.
Mets
The Mets get a huge payroll reset this offseason with Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and James McCann off their CBT payroll. That is $71 million off the books. They have Pete Alonso, Jose Quintana, Luis Severino, J.D. Martinez , Jesse Winker, Harrison Bader, and others heading to free agency. Most expect Sean Manaea to opt-out and that would bring the Mets payroll today to only $138 million. But they have no starting rotation except Kodai Senga in this situation, and no first baseman.
They have some real tough decisions. Three months ago they looked like a team needing a rebuild, but now you have to think they will want to reload. They have Steve Cohen, and he could tell his GM, David Stearns, to get Soto at all costs. Also keep in mind, that the Mets have minimal money for arb players of maybe $8 million.
A smart GM like Stearns will probably want to build a top starting rotation first and foremost before thinking about Soto. While they start with about $146 million in CBT payroll without Manaea going into the offseason, that money will go quick as they start shopping in free agency.
Phillies
The Phillies have money — but they don’t have Dodgers, Yankees, and Mets type of money. Of the four teams mentioned here, the Phillies go into the postseason with the highest payroll. They have some tough decisions on arb eligible players, and their hope to get Soto would probably need a deal like the Braves just did to unload Jorge Soler.
The Phillies lose Carlos Estevez and Jeff Hoffman to free agency which leaves two gaping holes in their bullpen. On top of that, they have $32 million for arb salaries that would put them up to $272 million before they acquire one free agent. Now they could non-tender Austin Hays and save $6 million, and maybe they non-tender Alec Bohm ($8 million) — but that would leave them with more spots to fill beyond the bullpen. The other idea was rumored last year that they had looked to trade Nick Castellanos who is getting paid $20 million a year through the 2026 season — and the Phillies denied that they were trying to do that a year ago.
The team’s core is averaging 32 years old, and JT Realmuto really hit the wall in 2024. Bohm had his struggles, and their defense at times looked like they lost a step or two. Of course the Phillies could be players on Soto, but they would probably have to trade Castellanos in order to pull it off and non-tender Hays. No matter how you slice it, the Phillies are at a crossroads with their window. They got knocked out in the NLDS, and their team just looked old.
Their farm system has Andrew Painter as a potentially big arm for their pitching staff, but what happens if Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler regress? While Wheeler is coming off his best season in his career, he turns 35 next year — and you have to wonder if he can produce a 2.57 ERA again when his FIP was 3.13.
The Rest of the Field
The rest of the teams look like bridesmaids in recent years that were used to make the bride look good. The Padres were top bidder on Trea Turner when he signed with the Phillies, the Giants were the top bidder on Aaron Judge when he signed with the Yankees, and Shohei Ohtani was incorrectly rumored to be signing with the Toronto Blue Jays.
Expect those big payroll teams to check in on Soto. He’s already been with San Diego, and they supposedly were in a cashflow crisis at the end of the 2023 season causing them to borrow money to make payroll per reports. They vowed to cut payroll and they did. They really didn’t win with Soto, so why try to bring him back? They won this past season without him. The Giants could really use Soto to re-energize their fanbase, and Blake Snell opted out of his contract so they have many other teams in an NL West division where the Dodgers and Padres seem to be way ahead of them. The Blue Jays have fallen well behind in the AL East and could use Soto and have the money, and the Red Sox already are in the mix for Soto per Jon Heyman.
The Texas Rangers and Chicago Cubs are two more large market teams that could afford Soto. Neither made the playoffs last year, and the Cubs fell apart when their pressure was ratcheted up. Both teams have numerous needs in pitching and the needs for bats.
Washington Nationals
The Nats need to be legit bidders — but not get stupid about it. Everyone can define their own level of “stupid.” Do you put a hard stop above $45 million AAV or more than $600 million in total? The Nats are in great shape on payroll, and even better after the 2026 season when Stephen Strasburg‘s $35 million is off the AAV/CBT books. But the Nats have a few other acquisition needs for the 2025 roster.
If the Nats offer 14 years to Soto at $600 million, the deal ends at age 39. Looking at the other teams with big payroll, you can see that the team could get to pushing $240M in a few years as it adds up quickly when top players are getting to arbitration salaries of $20+ million.
Today, the Nats are at $106 million after tendering deals to their arbitration eligible players. Soto, at $45 million, would push the payroll up to $151 million in the blink of the eye. How do you fill their other needs, and most notably a No. 1 starting pitcher? That becomes the million dollar question.
The Nationals have an outfield put together with Dylan Crews, Jacob Young, and James Wood. Worst case, Soto and Wood could share the left field duties and switch off at DH. Best case, Soto’s side work at first base makes him a legitimate first baseman like Harper’s transition to the position, and the team is basically set with their deep farm system producing players like Brady House, Seaver King, and Yohandy Morales for the near future as well as pitchers to add to the rotation and bullpen.
While Soto is a great player, the Nats still have other needs. The team would still want that Jayson Werth type of clubhouse leader on a multi-year deal unless Soto is that guy too. Some feel that is the true top priority. They could look to bring back Winker as a DH if Soto could play first base, and a veteran starting pitcher like Trevor Williams on reasonable deals — but that still costs money — and that would be a $170 million payroll. Would the Nats do that? Or the Nats could acquire Soto and do nothing else this year and see how that goes by filling in all other holes internally.
The flip side for the Nationals is being the team whose fanbase would be most energized by signing Soto, but also arguably the team whose fanbase may get the most angry with ownership if their team does not sign Soto — and their odds are low even if they make a full court press to get Juan. If you thought the “SELL THE TEAM” chants were loud before, they will get louder if Soto signs somewhere else. They better be prepared with a great Plan B and Plan C just in case.
Final Thoughts
The other strategy many teams could be looking at is backloading Soto’s contract in the first few years to help with cashflow without deferring dollars beyond the length of the contract. That could help the Nats get beyond their cashflow issues with paying off Strasburg, while hoping they can raise revenues with increased attendance. The same with the Phillies if they went for Soto.
Speaking of attendance, the Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, and Padres are selling out almost every game so Soto will not help them much in raising revenue — although you would expect ticket prices to increase further in the future years with those teams to raise revenues.
Would Mets fans buy more tickets with Soto as a free agent acquisition? The Mets were 17th in attendance which is absolutely shocking that they average about 29,000 per game in attendance in 2024 after all of the free agents they have made over the years.
Expect 6-to-8 teams to be mentioned as being “in” on Soto, and a few mystery teams. There really should be 3-to-4 teams that could prioritize Soto as their No. 1 player to acquire. With more demand, the price could easily get to the $600 million mark or more. Many teams will be in the mix to appease their fanbase and push up the value on Soto to squeeze their competition more. For any team over going over the CBT tax cap, the math will blow your mind as paying Soto $45 million would most likely be a 50 percent penalty for each of those high-spending teams and get them to $67.5 million for the true effect of adding him. Penalties can go even higher.
That tweet above takes information from the NY Post’s Jon Heyman, and he reports that there are already 11 teams inquiring on Soto. Heyman reports that Soto is seeking $700 million with no deferrals. That would be 14 years at $50 million. Would there be a team willing to pay Soto a total of $50 million annually through his age-39 season?
While Soto could produce 8.0+ WAR for the next seven seasons and be worth $60 million in those years, there are many examples of superstars like Mike Trout having injuries, or hitting age regression hard like Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera. With these mega contracts, Harper might be the best example of a deal working out well (so far) for the acquiring team — but remember, the Phillies only paid $25.3 million a year which brings you to $/Win value. Every team can only field 26-players and have to maximize that $/Win value within that roster. Can you spend that same amount of money better?
In the end, Soto is only signing with one team, and several fanbases will be crushed.
Many thanks to BLVTornado for the suggestion to write about this topic, and much of this article was written by him.
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