Today marks exactly five years from the day the Washington Nationals hoisted the World Series championship trophy. Since then, the Nats have started their offseasons on the same day as their regular season ended. Hopefully, the future has meaningful Octobers for the Nats.
Not much is going on in Natstown right now. They had already extended all of their coaches and left little to do publicly on their MLB calendar. All the baseball talk right now is about the World Series, managerial changes with other teams, and free agent speculation. In Washington, D.C., the talk is mostly about the first place Washington Commanders football team, and the beginning of the NBA and NHL seasons.
With 28-teams in their offseason, and the World Series wrapping up, baseball will see the start to free agency very soon. As we have seen the trend in recent years, the bottom of the free agent pool is the end for some in professional baseball. For the players like Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes, the teams will be lining up to sign them.
Nats’ general manager Mike Rizzo is working on his 2025 plan; however, there really is no clarity on the Nats’ plans other than what Rizzo said a month ago. Normally principal owner Mark Lerner would give a year-end speech about the team’s plan — but we got nothing on that, this time around in Lerner’s blog post at Curly W Live.
“While we are not satisfied with how we finished the season in terms of wins and losses, we are pleased by the progress that this young club continues to make, and we’ve seen a lot of things that have us feeling incredibly hopeful about the future of our ball club.”
— Lerner wrote in his blog post
“Although we are not yet where we want to be, record-wise, the level of talent we have throughout our Major and Minor Leagues gives us a lot to feel excited about.”
Last October, Lerner said, “It’s [Mike Rizzo’s] call as to how he wants to fill the holes … a free agent or whatever, he knows the game plan he wants to follow … whatever he desires. He knows he has the resources … to build a winner.” This year was more of a recap, and he gave us nothing on a plan.
Of course most people here want to see major upgrades on the big league roster. Better players hopefully translate into more wins. While we watch the two most valuable teams in terms of market value, we are reminded that the bigger the payroll the greater the probability to make the postseason. Of course some would point to the Orioles and Guardians making the postseason as some proof that it is not all about the payroll. That is true although you would have to go back to 2015 as the last time a smaller market team won a World Series.
Winning consistently takes a financial commitment from ownership, and the Nationals were spenders in the previous decade. They will hopefully follow that model of spending again. This offseason will tell us about the first steps to improving the roster.
After over a decade of the Nats being at the top of the free agent discussions from 2010-2019, the team is once again at a transitional point of their rebuild — and if they spend enough — it would signal that the rebuild is over. It seems to be the right time to increase payroll for a significant free agent like Mark’s father, Ted Lerner, did 14-years ago when the Nats were able to ink Jayson Werth at the start of the 2010 Winter Meetings for a spot on the 2011 team. This team is in desperate need of a veteran team leader who will be on the roster for more than just until the next trade deadline.
“I think we need to improve ourselves in any avenue we can. Free agency will certainly be one of the avenues that we’ll attack to improve. Also, we have to look at the trade market and the development market. We have to be hitting on all of those cylinders to get us to where we want to go.”
— Rizzo told Bill Ladson of MLB.com in September
The key dates for free agency follows the World Series wrapping up, and that becomes official the day after. However, they cannot sign with a new team until 5 p.m. ET on the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series. Usually free agents don’t start to sign until the end of November. The top free agents usually don’t start signing until the Winter Meetings at the beginning of December, and that process seems to drag on well into January.
Top free agents like Juan Soto will get a qualifying offer (QO) of $21.05 million which is a one-year offer worth the mean salary of MLB’s 125 highest-paid players. Obviously Soto will turn down that money. Some might take it. That amount is nearly $800,000 over last year’s QO. This year, offers must be made to eligible players within five days of the conclusion of the World Series, and players then have until 4 p.m. ET on Nov. 19 to accept or they can reject it before that time.
Keep in mind that not all free agents are eligible for a QO. Players who have previously received a QO or weren’t continuously with their current team, either in the Minors or Majors, from Opening Day until the end of the regular season are also ineligible. Most commonly, those are players acquired near the trade deadline in July like Jack Flaherty, Tanner Scott, and Jesse Winker.
But the locks for a QO (if they aren’t extended by their current teams or accept an eligible option) are: Soto, Willy Adames, SS (Brewers), Pete Alonso, 1B (Mets), Alex Bregman, 3B (Astros), Burnes, SP (Orioles), Max Fried, SP (Braves), Teoscar Hernandez, OF (Dodgers), Sean Manaea, SP (Mets), and Anthony Santander, OF (Orioles).
Any new team that signs a player who has rejected a QO is subject to the loss of one or more Draft picks unless the player is unsigned after the start of the MLB Draft in the year that follows the rejection of their qualifying offer are no longer tied to Draft pick compensation and can be signed without their new club needing to forfeit a Draft pick. Also, a team’s highest first-round pick is exempt from forfeiture.
There are three tiers of Draft pick forfeiture based on the financial status of the acquiring team per MLB.com:
• Competitive Balance Tax payors: A team that exceeded the CBT threshold in the preceding season will lose its second- and fifth-highest selections in the following year’s Draft, as well as $1 million from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. If such a team signs multiple qualifying-offer free agents, it will forfeit its third- and sixth-highest picks as well.
• Revenue-sharing recipients: A team that receives revenue-sharing money will lose its third-highest selection in the following year’s Draft. If it signs two such players, it will also forfeit its fourth-highest pick.
• All other teams: If a team does not receive revenue sharing and did not exceed the CBT salary threshold in the previous season, it will lose its second-highest selection in the following year’s Draft, as well as $500,000 from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. If one of these teams signs two such players, it will also forfeit its third-highest pick.
Under the new rules, the Nationals could sign a QO’d free agent and have no fear of forfeiting their first round draft pick. One name at the top of Nats’ acquisition boards is Christian Walker, a first baseman with the Arizona Diamondbacks. He is still considered a fringe decision on whether the D’Backs will QO him.
Most Nats’ fans are probably hoping the Nats have no second round pick as that would indicate that the team signed a top QO’d free agent. Here is the list of potential free agents.
