The Nats’ Starting Pitcher Conundrum

Posted on October 9, 2024 by Drew Scott
Photo by Andrew Lang for TalkNats

The Washington Nationals finished 2024 with some surprise reinforcements at Starting Pitcher. Going into 2024, the Nats were reasonably sure MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin and Josiah Gray were going to be a part of the rotation going forward. They had veterans Patrick Corbin and Trevor Williams to lean on to share advice to the young core of pitchers but knew they would need to find at least 2 others to fill out a 5-man rotation.

Then one of their young core, Gray, struggled out of the gate and then was placed in the IL due to a flexor strain (a precursor to Tommy John). Looking back, it makes perfect sense he struggled early on if there were structural issues with the arm that later necessitated surgery.

Enter Mitchell Parker for Gray as the Nats’ first new pitcher to the 2024 rotation. A strong performance against a very good Dodgers team in place of Gray was all Parker needed to not look back. A season-long 4.29 ERA might not seem great, but the issues Parker had shown in the minors (high walk rates) were better as he jumped up a level to MLB. Parker pitched 30+ more innings this season than any other year since joining the Nats in 2021. Despite the increased innings and a jump in level, Parker had less walks (44) than in 2023 (61 in 124 IP) or 2022 (67 in 100 IP). As you can see, each year Parker has been able to move up to new levels and get an increased workload all while issuing less walks. A sure sign he has and will continue to improve going forward.

Parker is not without fault, for certain. He issued more HR and gave up more H/IP than other years, so he has areas where he will need to improve to become a mainstay in the rotation for a contending Nationals team.

Next up came DJ Herz after Williams went down with an injury in early June. He also had a solid first month and proved he has the stuff to miss bats at the major league level. Like Parker, the lefty Herz pitched more innings this season than any of his previous seasons in the minors. His K/9 were lower than any other year, but the BB/9 were also lower than all but one stint in the minors with the Cubs at the High-A level. With Herz, his improvement was less about the numbers and more about showing he could face MLB batters and get outs at a young age. He has the velocity, movement and competitiveness to be a factor on a pitching staff, even if there is refinement needed in the future.

Jackson Rutledge and Joan Adon made spot starts for the Nats to varying effectiveness, but not quite the level of Herz and Parker. Adon has been moved to the bullpen in AAA and I think there is an argument Rutledge might benefit from the same at some point.

At the end of 2024, the Nats were left with 4 solid options (Gore, Irvin, Parker and Herz), all with room for growth, and a young core piece who will likely miss all of 2025 (Gray). With Trevor Williams and Patrick Corbin (finally) becoming free agents, the Nats seem to be in the market for one Starting Pitcher to round out the rotation. Well…maybe.

To answer the question of how many SP’s the Nats might be after, we need to take a holistic look at the Nats pitchers, both MLB and the farm system. First up, the departing pitchers:

*-I am not 100% sure on Ramirez. He was signed in 2018 (but in April) which should make him eligible for FA, but he has missed time and I am not fully aware of the ruling on his timing.

With that said, here are all the SP returning for the Nats system (without Josiah Gray):

That’s 34 Starting Pitchers. Jose Feliz and Darrel Lunar are eligible to return to the Dominican Summer League next season, but they’ve also shown they’re at least ready for FCL ball, and holding them in the Dominican Republic could stunt some of their growth.

From MLB to FCL, a 5-man rotation would have a need for 30 starters. If you push AAA to FCL to a 6-man rotation, you are still looking at needing 35 starters. There is a logjam at the A and FCL level, however. Sullivan, Cornelio, Huff and Sthele would all be in FCL for the third season if they are relegated there. But players like Portorreal, Agostini, Hall and Davis have shown they are ready/competitive for full-season baseball. So someone’s growth will be stunted playing at a level below their actual skill level.

So what does this have to do with free agents?

Well, the more free agent Starting Pitchers you add, the more of a crunch you will feel at each level.

Let’s say for the sake of an argument, the Nats sign two MLB-ready starters for next season. Here is a breakdown of the rotations (even using a 6-man rotation in the minors):

MLBAAAAAA+AFCL
SP Free Agent 1HerzStuartShumanDavisPortorreal
SP Free Agent 2CavalliBennettSaenzSykoraColon
GoreRutledgeLaraSusanaClemmeyKent
IrvinWardHenryAtencioAgostiniFeliz
ParkerAlvarezLuckhamHuffHallLunar
 LordSoleskyCornelioSullivanSthele/Polanco

At first glance, it seems like a fit. But when looking closer you see:

  • Jarlin Susana stays at High-A, even after earning a promotion
  • Tyler Stuart is demoted to AA after ending the season in AAA (this would be the case for whoever you chose on that AAA rotation)
  • Andry Lara does not get promoted after a strong year
  • Travis Sykora doesn’t get promoted after National Honors at Low-A (or someone in High-A moves backwards a level)
  • Sthele and Polanco either are both on the FCL roster (they’re both currently at Low-A) or Feliz/Lunar have to go back to the Dominican Republic for another year
  • Cade Cavalli is already an MLB-level pitcher. He will be moved up as soon as he proves he has the stamina and health for starting in DC again. Do you move Parker back down to AAA when he is ready?

None of those are positive for their development.

One free agent SP fits better, but there are still issues. Susana and Sykora likely get promoted. Stuart probably stays in AAA. But Lara stays in AA, and Luckham gets blocked after a solid year by Lara and Bennett. Sthele and Polanco are still odd men out down in FCL where they’ve already had multiple stints.

There are more options. However, it will take some realizations and self-scouting to make some moves earlier than you would like. The solution might be to move some of the starters over to the bullpen. Some of the candidates for the move might be:

Not all of those will move (it’s possible none of them do), but the Nats have already started this elsewhere moving Joan Adon to the bullpen as well as Luke Young. So it is clear they know there is a crunch, and some are better candidates for relief than others (it’s easier to make a former starter a long reliever as opposed to set-up or closers).

To my (admittedly inexperienced) eye, the most obvious candidates to make the move at some point in their career and find their way to an MLB roster are:

  • DJ Herz – would allow him to throw harder and lift his strikeout rate, which would open his breaking ball to be more efficient
  • Jackson Rutledge – same as Herz with regards to throwing harder for shorter periods of time. He could also be a long reliever
  • Thaddeus Ward – has already worked out of the bullpen at the MLB level
  • Cole Henry – I think shorter work will help lengthen his injury-riddled career
  • Jarlin Susana – I personally think he could become one of baseball’s best closers. He currently throws harder than anyone in MiLB and for longer than anyone. I fully understand why the Nats want to see if SP will work out, but he could be in the majors at the end of the year next year as a closer.

So, how many SP do you add this offseason? Do you roll with what you have and use 2025 as a development/sink-or-swim year before chasing deep playoff contention in 2026? Do you go all-out for a playoff spot in 2025, even if it means stunting some development somewhere?

Injuries will undoubtedly happen. Everyone will be needed. People who are tweeners or playing down a level will for sure play at the level they deserve at some point. But what is the psyche of a player who is told they have to go from AAA to AA after doing well at AAA, or telling Jarlin Susana he won’t be promoted after a very strong year in High-A? Do they start from behind mentally in 2025? Do they even recover? You hope so, but that is the side of sports not many get to see up close. You don’t make it to the professional level without some level of an ego, and when you see positive results and don’t make a move forward it can be crushing to not be rewarded for it.

Hopefully the Nats are great communicators in dealing with young egos. But moreso than anything, I hope they are much smarter than me at figuring out how to put these puzzle pieces together.

TalkNats.com

Written by Coach Drew Scott

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