Principal owner Mark Lerner talks with Juan Soto
Obviously, Juan Soto‘s +8.1 WAR would be a big plus if the Washington Nationals acquired him. He would almost transform the team from 71-wins to 80-wins by himself. The Nationals purged a lot of “addition by subtraction” off of the roster also. Certainly, -4.0 WAR will not be on next year’s roster, and that alone could take this team from 71-wins to 75-wins. That is where we should begin before we roll the dice on Soto signing with the Nationals in the next 3-months.
Because we want to see the pitcher’s WAR based on true results instead of FIP based, it tells you that the Nats will lose +2.7 WAR with the departure of Trevor Williams — but then you have the subtraction of exactly -2.8 of pitchers off of the roster. Let’s call that a wash. The Nationals could do nothing else and should transform to a 75-win team in 2025. That won’t get you to the playoffs. We discussed a concerted effort to improve at defense which could be addition by developing the current players into better players. But the other part of a young team like this is that they should progress to their potential, and especially with players like James Wood, Dylan Crews, MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, DJ Herz, and Jacob Young.
We expect FanGraphs projections for 2025 to give some of those players WAR boosts over their 2024 numbers. If those six players just marginally improved from their current values by an average of +0.5 each, that would be an additional +3.0 WAR and take this team to 78-wins.
“We need some offense [in new acquisitions]. We need a couple of bats that can hit in the middle of the lineup and take the onus off some of these good young core players and assist them in the run creation of our offense.”
— General Manager Mike Rizzo said two weeks ago to William Ladson
“We have the core players to be middle-of-the-lineup hitters. If we add a bat or two into that group, it takes a little bit of pressure off everybody — and everybody can relax a little bit more and develop into the players we think they’re going to be.”
With Rizzo’s comment, we give you two veteran pending free agents with big bats and great defense.
ACQUISITIONS
Any added improvement would need to come from outside the organization. For now, let’s assume Soto does not come to the Nationals. Alex Bregman was 28th in all of baseball in WAR this year at +4.1 and would slot at 3rd base. He ranked 4th in 3rd base defense. If he replaces Jose Tena, then the net gain is +3.9 WAR. Dollar cost for Bregman would be around $30 million per year.
After a Bregman acquisition, the Nats should attempt to acquire Christian Walker for 1st base. Walker was 64th in baseball at +3.0 WAR and just below Luis Garcia Jr. in the rankings. Walker ranked 2nd in 1st base defense and should win his third consecutive Gold Glove. Dollar cost for Walker would be around $15 million per year.
The next acquisition would be for a pitcher. The Nationals could look to shoot high for a Corbin Burnes or go more reasonable in the middle tier. They could also look to go back to Trevor Williams and trust in their own depth. But let’s say they go for Jack Flaherty and his +3.2 WAR and 28th in the Majors, just behind MacKenzie Gore. Dollar cost for Flaherty would be around $22 million per year.
THE MATH
That is $67 million for three players and that is an added +10.1 WAR to those 78-wins. We just turned the Washington Nationals to an 88-win team and a playoff contender.
In 2024, there was more parity in the NL, and MLB had no teams that won 100-games. This year it would have taken 89-wins to make the NL Wild Card. Most years, 88-wins would be enough to cash a ticket to a Wild Card berth.
THE 2025 ROSTER
Here’s the lineup and roster:
- CJ Abrams SS LH
- Alex Bregman 3B RH
- James Wood LF LH
- Christian Walker 1B RH
- Luis Garcia Jr. 2B LH
- Dylan Crews RF RH
- Juan Yepez DH RH/ Jose Tena DH LH
- Keibert Ruiz C SH
- Jacob Young CF RH
- Jack Flaherty SP RH
- MacKenzie Gore SP LH
- Jake Irvin SP RH
- DJ Herz SP LH
- Mitchell Parker SP LH
- Kyle Finnegan Closer RH
- Jose A. Ferrer Setup LH
- Derek Law Setup RH
- Robert Garcia LH
- Tanner Rainey RH
- Eduardo Salazar RH
- Jacob Barnes RH
- Jackson Rutledge Long Man RH
- Ildemaro Vargas Utility SH
- Alex Call OF RH
- Jose Tena Utility LH
- Drew Millas C SH
The one tough decision would be to send Nasim Nunez to Triple-A while you retain Ildemaro Vargas. The DH is the one spot that seems to be the weakest. This is where you hope that Brady House or Yohandy Morales shove and rotate in the infield and DH to get another top bat. This is also make-or-break time for Juan Yepez and Jose Tena.
As TalkNats has written before, you don’t move all of your chips in the middle for 2025. You have to build a few pieces at a time. As the adage goes, “Rome wasn’t built in a day.” Remember, Garcia and Gore are under team control for three more seasons, and Abrams for four more seasons. So yes, there needs to be some urgency. It is time to get busy.
