As we discussed a few days ago, if the Washington Nationals pitched to their Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) as their ERA, they would be in the postseason. That did not happen, so let’s talk reality. What we know is that WAR and other statistics tell us that you also need the right amount of balance between your offense and defense. This isn’t pro football where you either play offense or you play defense. Okay, yes, baseball added the designated hitters so you have your one offense-only player, and pitchers are solely for defense. The point is you need position players that can drive in runs too. The name of the game is you win by scoring more runs than you give up.
The Nats finished the season with the 9th best FIP in baseball at 3.94 which is very impressive considering they carried Patrick Corbin all season and his 4.41 FIP, and that certainly sent that average up in the wrong direction. Just by replacing Corbin with a better pitcher should make that 3.94 better in theory. But the Nats MUST focus on improving their defense to have a legitimate shot at making their FIP nearly equal to their ERA.
FIP is directly tied to defense, and the Nats were the 4th worst defensive team in baseball per FanGraphs. Many of those “negative” defenders are gone. The advanced statistics using this OAA chart confirms what we saw in the “eye test.” And maybe this is where general manager Mike Rizzo can concentrate on the four weakest remaining positions which is shortstop, third base, left field and first base. Yes, left field was a weak spot, and credit to James Wood who is improving in that spot. Let’s talk about the other three positions.
SHORTSTOP
CJ Abrams was the lowest ranked defender in all of baseball for the full season. But Abrams overall is a good offensive player. Nationals’ general manager Mike Rizzo said that they are committed to Abrams as their shortstop. Rizzo and his staff have to do get Abrams back to where he was in 2023 when he was over twice as good as he was this year. Hold on, twice as good isn’t great because Abrams was still a -8 OAA in 2023 — but didn’t you expect his defense to improve in 2024 like we saw with Luis Garcia Jr.?
When Nasim Nunez played shortstop this season it amounted to about 15 complete games in the field. He turned in a+2 OAA with 1 run saved. Extrapolate his numbers and he is a Gold Glove contender with numbers near Young. And truth be told, that if Nunez had a better first baseman, he’d have fewer errors and a higher OAA. If Nunez could hit for a decent OPS, you would have to seriously consider him — but he looks like a bench replacement and maybe you use him more in the latter innings when the Nats have a need as a defensive replacement.
The Nats have to coach up Abrams to improve his defense. Clearly something(s) went awry in 2024 because he was much better in 2023. With Garcia playing so well, would Rizzo ever consider moving Abrams to third base and stick with Nunez at shortstop?
THIRD BASE
There was a revolving door at third base in 2024 with Nick Senzel, Trey Lipscomb, and Jose Tena with Ildemaro Vargas as a fill-in. Sensel was DFA’d and Lipscomb never showed that great defense that he was billed to have from his 2023 minor league Gold Glove Award. Tena was brought up on August 10th, and his defense was costly. To put up a -5 OAA in just 37 games is about as bad as Abrams if you extrapolated those numbers for a full season.
The solution might be to give serious consideration to going the free agent route and pursuing Alex Bregman who is a Top-4 defender at third base as well as being an above average offensive player. The issue with Bregman will be the cost and the fact that he turns 31 in Spring Training. Bregman would come in as a veteran team leader who already has a known relationship as a mentor to top prospect Dylan Crews as well as coincidentally with Mitchell Parker. Bregman’s family is from Washington, D.C. going back three generations. His grandfather worked with the Washington Senators, and his dad played baseball for Walter Johnson High School in Bethesda, Maryland.
If not Bregman, the team needs to get Tena into Winter Ball with extensive work at third base. The other negative with Tena is that his offense really fell off. He finished his Nats’ season with a .668 OPS which is troublesome. The other option is letting Tena and Vargas compete for the spot in Spring Training and wait on the team’s No. 2 prospect, Brady House, to be ready to take over.
But here’s the thing, you cannot put Tena at third base if he is going to play poor defense — and especially with Abrams struggling with his defense at shortstop gives the Nats a very weak left-side defense.
When you deep dive into the FIP numbers for starters, what we found was that the lefty starting pitchers for the Nationals were affected more by the defense than the right-handed starting pitchers. When you consider that opposing managers often stack their lineups with more right-handed batters against southpaws, the stats back-up the eye test — you see that the weakest fielders were all on the pull-side for those righty batters at shortstop, third base and left field.
FIRST BASE
We would all like Juan Soto to be the Nats’ first baseball for the next dozen years. But Soto has not played an inning in a game at first base at any pro level. He has only practiced at first base on the side. We know this because he was filmed practicing.
Now if you believe that Soto can convert from the outfield as well as Bryce Harper and become a Top-3 defender at first base — this might work — or you could get Christian Walker who is the best first base defender in the National League and nearly twice as good as Harper. Walker has won back-to-back Gold Gloves and should make it 3-in-a-row. Also, Walker turns 34 in Spring Training but still had a potent bat last year with an .803 OPS. You have to be concerned with age regression with Walker and would want to limit him at most to a 3-year deal. The good news is that he doesn’t have any discernible home/road offensive splits.
FINAL THOUGHTS
If money was flowing in endless supply, you would sign Soto, Bregman, and Walker plus a great starting pitcher and bullpen arm. Here are some dollar figures for Soto as they have 15/$520 ($34.6 AAV) which seems light, and Bregman at 7/$210 ($30.0 AAV) feels right. Figure Walker at maybe 3/$45 ($15.0 AAV). A sizeable increase from his $10.9 million from 2023.
An analyst might tell you that the Nats don’t need new pitchers — they need better defense to make their pitchers better. Actually they need both because the team has to replace Corbin and Trevor Williams. Adding a pitcher that has an ERA and FIP better than 3.50 would be a nice addition for the departing Corbin. Maybe the answer is Williams. Time will tell but keep in mind he was injured most of the season and only pitched 13-games and averaged less than 5 1/3 innings per start.
MORE THOUGHTS IN CONCLUSION
The team knows their weak spots. You can’t throw money at every position. The greatest need might be to get that veteran leader onto this roster. Signing players to one-year deals doesn’t give that continuity to the clubhouse. This is the year to find that clubhouse leader, and it could be as easy as bringing back Jesse Winker on a multi-year deal to be the left-handed designated hitter. The team could stick with Tena at third base — but it is risky, and then get either Soto or Walker for 1st base. Spend the rest on a starting pitcher and bullpen arm.
Getting back to the pitchers, MacKenzie Gore had a FIP of 3.53, DJ Herz at 3.71, and Mitchell Parker at 3.85. Coincidentally, George Kirby of Seattle had a 3.53 ERA and was ranked 25th in MLB for qualified ERA. Gore should be a No. 1 pitcher with better defense. He would be an ace if he pitched like he did in his final 7-starts of the season. If the Nats trio of lefties all had their FIPs as their ERA, they would all be Top-38 pitchers.
There is good news for the 2025 roster in that Crews’s stats, when extrapolated for a full season of defense, has him as a Gold Glove type of player. He would be about 10-11 defensive runs saved for a full season, and probably more when you consider as his first 31-games went through the acclimation period — Crews defense got better and better. Jacob Young is already getting fitted for a Gold Glove and led all of baseball in defensive runs saved and in OAA of all players and at every position. He made the difficult look easy.
So again, improve the defense, and the pitching will improve organically. Add an ace to the top of the rotation — if you can, and this could be a very good starting rotation in 2025. Add some thump to the offense, and this could be a legitimate playoff contender.
One run given up by bad defense has a greater impact than one run not scored by your offense because bad defense also has tangible effects on pitch counts.
