The offseason has started for the Washington Nationals. At the end of tomorrow’s doubleheader between the Mets and Braves, there will be 18-teams that are setting tee times for golf.
The front offices of those 18-teams are getting to work, and Nats’ general manager Mike Rizzo will be working on his 2025 plan and doing a final assessment on the 2024 season. A source told us that in early October, the front office and coaches and player development people will be setting offseason exit interviews with all players that they plan to bring back for the 2025 season.
Of course most people here want to see big upgrades on the big league roster. Better players translating into more wins. That will take a financial commitment from ownership, and while principal owner Mark Lerner has said per a source that, “Mike Rizzo will have the financial resources he needs this offseason,” we saw what Lerner said a year ago in the quote below — and there was only a moderate uptick in payroll with no long-term signings.
“It’s [Mike Rizzo’s] call as to how he wants to fill the holes … a free agent or whatever, he knows the game plan he wants to follow … whatever he desires. He knows he has the resources … to build a winner.”
— Lerner said in an exclusive team interview at the end last season
After over a decade of the Nats being at the top of the free agent discussions from 2010-2019, they are once again at a transitional point of their rebuild — or if they spend enough it would signal that the rebuild is over. It seems to be the right time to increase payroll for a significant free agent like Mark’s father, Ted Lerner, did 14-years ago when the Nats were able to ink Jayson Werth at the start of the 2010 Winter Meetings for a spot on the 2011 team. That is the $9-figure question that none of us have the answer to.
Priority #1: Get one-to-two MAJOR upgrades for the roster. This is the year to find that game changing bat and preferably at 1st base or DH. Obviously Juan Soto is the one name to change everything. The team also needs a veteran leader. You could certainly look at a player like Jesse Winker as a DH and sign him to a reasonable 3-year deal to give the team that voice.
Obviously there is a lot of thought and questions if the team should look to a free agent like Jack Flaherty to be the team’s veteran pitcher for the staff. Of course there are other names and other names that will evolve as the offseason gets going into November.
“I think we need to improve ourselves in any avenue we can. Free agency will certainly be one of the avenues that we’ll attack to improve. Also, we have to look at the trade market and the development market. We have to be hitting on all of those cylinders to get us to where we want to go.”
— Rizzo told Bill Ladson of MLB.com last week
Priority #2: The entire coaching staff was extended back on August 14, and that includes hitting coach Darnell Coles. As we have discussed, it is time to reverse course and take your lumps for extending him — and find a new voice to lead the offense.
On the hitting side, this team needs more power, and has take more walks. Yes, part of the issue is getting better players too. This is not a one-size fits all approach. Part of it is teaching these young players to have the proper approach against a particular pitcher but also in general as to how they need to approach their at-bats. The days of thinking you are getting a fastball down the middle in a 2-0 count is so 1990’s. Too many lost opportunities. Again, we know part of the issue is the quality of the players, and some of it is the message from those who are supposed to be teaching these students.
The Nationals ended up 6th worse in OPS (.684) and in runs scored at just 4.07 runs per game. That won’t work. The 10th best team in runs scored, the Twins, scored 4.58 runs per game. Just over a 1/2 run per game is about 3-runs per week on average.
Priority #3: Improve the defense. If not for Jacob Young in centerfield, this would be the worst defense in all of baseball. CJ Abrams ended up as the worst fielder in the OAA stats at -18.0 with a -13 runs given up. Abrams got much worse from last year, and not good to see him move in the wrong direction. The Nats were the 5th worst defensive team.
If there was a concerted effort to improve the defense to try to be as good as the 10th best team, that would save the pitchers +56 runs. That is just over 1/3 run per game. Think about how much better the pitching would be with better defense and without Patrick Corbin‘s 5.62 ERA. Just taking the team’s 4.30 ERA for this season and knocking 1/3 of a run off would put the team from the 23rd best in ERA to about the 15th best.
Think about how good this rotation of MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, DJ Herz, Mitchell Parker plus one more starter could be with better defense. You could be looking at a top-10 rotation.
Priority #4: Spend money — but spend it wisely or as Rizzo said be “shrewd.” In the short-term, the only way to fix this sooner than later is to spend as we await the top prospects to mature through the system.
“… You can’t tell me that you can’t see the ascension for all these young players. I think when you factor that in — and our young pitching — the way they’re [performing], and the young players coming up, and the payroll flexibility — you have to be enthusiastic about where this franchise is going in the future.”
— Mike Rizzo said in the past two months
“As we take the next progression as a young team, and this young starting rotation comes into their own … you make a couple of shrewd offseason acquisitions — and I think you are right there in the mix.”
“That’s kind of the plan that we have scripted. All of these plans are not linear, as we all know, and they can change on the fly. But I think that’s how I see it, as far as where we’re at, and where we’re going, and how soon we’re going to get there.”
This could also be a time to look to one one or two of the young rookies and look to extend some player(s) to keep that window open longer. The clock is now ticking as you figure James Wood and Dylan Crews will now be on a similar timeline to be free agents after the 2030 season.
By our count based on the current CBT formula, the Nats 2025 player payroll is right around $81 million in AAV that includes the $35 million retirement pay for Stephen Strasburg. That is a lot of wasted money — but it is what it is. In the AAV, the only long-term guaranteed contract is for Keibert Ruiz who is under team control through 2032 with two team options after the 2030 season.
Speaking of cashflow, what about all of that money sitting out there that you could be inflowing for the team with a jersey patch sponsor, selling stadium naming rights, and pressuring MASN for a better deal. This team is revenue deprived, and it is a major problem. When you spend more, you sell more tickets which equals higher revenue.
Priority #5: Progress with the farm system as 2025 needs to continue to be a season for progress where the Nats can continue pulling star prospects like Brady House and Cade Cavalli from their pool to make this MLB team better.
The big league roster also has to evolve. The demotion of Abrams last week seems like an isolated issue, but it also would help as mentioned to get some veteran leadership that will be signed for more than a 1-year deal to have some continuity going forward.
Priority #6: Current ownership and the front office owe it to these fans to improve over the 2024 season. With 71 wins in the books for 2024, what is next? Some history, the 2010 team finished with 69 wins, and the 2011 Nats went on to win 80 games. But there also has to be a better message from ownership and the front office to turn the constant tide of negativity that surrounds this team too often. That is where public relations and marketing is not doing their job. So Priority #5 is send a better message through improved public relations and marketing.
Some good news is that attendance did increase through better marketing with the 5-year World Series celebration and the a few postgame concerts that were popular. The Yankees series in Nationals Park was well attended too. Last year, attendance was 1,865,832 and it increased to 1,966,302 an increase of just over 100,000. That is 24,275 per game in attendance.
Priority #7: If the Lerner ownership group is not committed to spending to win — it is time to do right by the fans and sell the team.
These priorities will change and evolve. The good news is there are no tough choices with free agents leaving. There has already been a purge. Changes were needed, and many changes were already made.
