Principal owner Mark Lerner and GM Mike Rizzo in a suite (Photo by Sol Tucker)
The Washington Nationals will finish with a losing record for the fifth consecutive season since winning the 2019 World Series. Repeating a World Series win hasn’t been done since the year 2000 and that is almost a quarter-century of showing how hard it is to repeat or even make the postseason after winning a World Series. Just ask the Texas Rangers.
The Nats embarked on their rebuild in July 2021 when they began their fire sale at the trade deadline — now they go into another offseason a week from today with the fanbase not knowing the full direction for 2025. And nobody knows if the plan has changed. But suffice it to say that there is more trepidation since CJ Abrams‘ demotion to Triple-A on Sunday.
By the way, sources told TalkNats (h/t to Stephen Mears) that the Lerner ownership group has not finalized the budget for the 2025 season. What a source told us is that the payroll will increase a lot from where it will open this offseason. That source wouldn’t give details because the budget has not been finalized. So we don’t know if that is $10 million or $50 million or $80 million. General Manager Mike Rizzo chatted with MLB.com’s Bill Ladson this week. Here is what we know on spending and the plan as you will read in several quotes.
“I think we need to improve ourselves in any avenue we can. Free agency will certainly be one of the avenues that we’ll attack to improve. Also, we have to look at the trade market and the development market. We have to be hitting on all of those cylinders to get us to where we want to go.”
— Rizzo told Ladson
Of course the hot button topic right now is about Abrams. Rumors were swirling if the Nats would trade Abrams or move him to second base. That all seems premature at this point, and of note is that Luis Garcia Jr. is the second baseman and top WAR player on this team per FanGraphs. Could a trade be made, sure, but it rarely makes sense to trade and create a new hole.
Manager Dave Martinez almost went as far as to say Abrams would be his starting shortstop next season. Sure, Abrams’ defense was very bad and disappointing at a -17.0 OAA which ranked him worse — but we know from last year that Abrams is better than that.
Abrams was an All-Star this season — and fell into a long slump from July to the end of the season while batting only .191 with a .575 OPS in his final 56-games of this season. But even with his late-season struggles, Abrams was still a 20HR/30SB player joining Alfonso Soriano as the only other player to achieve that level in Nats history. The goal should be to solve Abrams’ off-the-field issues first and foremost, and most likely, his on-the-field performance should improve per a source.
Keep the focus on the weakest links which is first base, third base, DH, and fifth starter. Maybe you can’t fix them all externally and count on some of the improvement to come internally. With a player payroll projected to start the offseason at $81 million before player benefits, the Nationals will also have money to spend as general manager Mike Rizzo has talked about when he mentioned the team’s “payroll flexibility.” Rizzo also added in another interview that he plans to make a “a couple of shrewd offseason acquisitions.”
“… You can’t tell me that you can’t see the ascension for all these young players. I think when you factor that in — and our young pitching — the way they’re [performing], and the young players coming up, and the payroll flexibility — you have to be enthusiastic about where this franchise is going in the future.”
“As we take the next progression as a young team, and this young starting rotation comes into their own … you make a couple of shrewd offseason acquisitions — and I think you are right there in the mix.”
“That’s kind of the plan that we have scripted. All of these plans are not linear, as we all know, and they can change on the fly. But I think that’s how I see it, as far as where we’re at, and where we’re going, and how soon we’re going to get there.”
— Mike Rizzo said in the past two months
How can you not be excited when you see the Washington Nationals pushing for 70+ wins from their current 69-wins with 6-games remaining to be played. While the Nats might not beat their 71-win total of 2023, the improvement in the expanding core of position players and especially in the starting pitchers has been impressive.
The future is bright indeed. The Nationals starters’ ERA is 4.45 as an entire squad — and that includes Patrick Corbin‘s numbers. Keep in mind that the Dodgers starting pitchers have a combined ERA of 4.22. The Nats rank 10th best in starter’s FIP in MLB at 3.98 — which tells you what this team could be with better defense. Yes, defense matters.
With the core of starting pitchers that will be part of the 2024 rotation with MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, DJ Herz, and Mitchell Parker, those four Nats’ starters are averaging 4.21 in ERA. That’s better than where the Dodgers are right now. Think about what the Nats could do next year with just some minimal improvement from that quartet of pitchers and adding one veteran starter to seed at the front — and couple that with an emphasis on better defense.
“The biggest thing I want them to learn is the mindset of playing in September and getting into October. It’s the mental game right now. … Winning is important. If we’re going to do what we want to do is to get to another championship, we have to learn how to win.”
“It’s gratifying to see them getting better every day.”
“Every day I see those guys — I dream on the future.”
— Martinez said last week in separate comments
Legitimate star power and veteran leadership is what the team needs more of. The types of players who can add WAR that you can count on to accumulate the types of numbers that lead to postseason locks. With true payroll flexibility, the Nats could fill their holes in this offseason and turn a 70+ win season this year into an 80+ win season next year to compete for a Wild Card berth.
What the Nationals need to do is take full advantage of their window opening, and adding some veteran superstar talent with them. Can the Nats follow the same plan after the 2010 season when Stephen Strasburg made his MLB debut, and in the following offseason the Nats broke the bank to sign Jayson Werth to a mega 9-digit deal. Take a homegrown core and add to it — then find that impact free agent signing like Rizzo and the Lerner ownership group did when they paid Werth. Yes, it will take money and making those smart moves — or as Rizzo called it “shrewd acquisitions.” Remember, after the Nats acquired Werth, Gio Gonzalez, and extended Ryan Zimmerman, they made the biggest signing in baseball history for a pitcher when the team signed Max Scherzer which showed that you don’t have to make all the moves at once.
“We need some offense. We need a couple of bats that can hit in the middle of the lineup and take the onus off some of these good young core players and assist them in the run creation of our offense. We have the core players to be middle-of-the-lineup hitters.”
“If we add a bat or two into that group, it takes a little bit of pressure off everybody and everybody can relax a little bit more and develop into the players we think they are going to be.”
— Rizzo told Ladson
All of that looks like Rizzo telling us that he will make one or two impact signings. He also reiterated what he said last year that he will not block any prospects. Rizzo said, “We have to be strategic in what we have this offseason and allow this young core group of guys to get better each year.”
That strategy paid off for the Nationals last year by finding one-year stopgaps and actually having the opportunity to trade players like Lane Thomas to make room for Dylan Crews and shifting Jesse Winker to DH before subsequently trading him as James Wood was added to the outfield on July 1. The current outfield is all rookies with Crews, Wood and Jacob Young. That sets the outfield for at least five more years.
The infield is what needs some work, and the Nats do have top prospect Brady House readying himself for third base. If you believe that Abrams and Garcia Jr. are the middle infield, and maybe Jose Tena can figure out the defense of playing third base — then yes, it is first base that is the main need. So why not go after Juan Soto, Christian Walker, Pete Alonso, or Paul Goldschmidt as possible options there. Soto has already shown that he is doing side-work at first base.
If Tena stays at third base, the Nats could look at bringing Winker back at DH to platoon with either Juan Yepez or Andres Chaparro. Or maybe the team sticks with Joey Gallo for first base defense and his left-handed bat, and goes for overkill at DH with Anthony Santander who has already notched himself into the 40+ home run club this year, and he turns 30 next month.
The Nats certainly have enough internal options that they will also have pitchers in the minor leagues pushing for spots. Rizzo names who we could see in the Major Leagues in 2025, “There is Brady House, Yohandy Morales and Jackson Rutledge. We’ll have Cade Cavalli. He will be pitching again after coming off Tommy John surgery. Jake Bennett will be pitching again after having Tommy John surgery. So we have a good stable of guys at the high Minor Leagues that are going to make an impact sometime in ‘25. But we have great depth in the mid to lower Minor Leagues, too, that is going to be the next wave of guys, special guys, that are coming up.“
There certainly does not seem like there is much room for more than a few free agents even if the money is there. We expect the biggest challenge is in the competition for free agents with the other teams. Hopefully Rizzo’s words give you some foresight into the moves. Along with that is some optimism on the direction with the team. The future looks good.
Rizzo said, “A game like (Monday’s 2-1 loss against the Mets), we look at it as a learning experience, but there is going to be a time where we have to win those [types of] games. I think you are seeing the experience level of these guys. I can see it in their eyes and then their reaction in their tone after the game. I can see these guys learning how to win in those close games.” Rizzo doesn’t want to make any proclamations on a Wild Card team for 2025, but he said he wants to win and win more championships in the future and sees the light at the end of the tunnel.
