Yes, you can win games by a score of 1-0. The Nationals went into the bottom of the 8th inning last night with a 1-0 lead. Six outs from a victory if they could have prevented a run from scoring. Instead of having Sunday’s closer, Jose A. Ferrer, ready for the 8th inning, manager Dave Martinez brought his starter out for 8th inning with Derek Law warming up. Of course the first batter hit a line drive double down the line to change the direction of the game. After the game was tied, Ferrer pitched the 9th inning with the team’s main closer, Kyle Finnegan, watching from the bullpen in case his team could take the lead.
Ferrer was electric and set down the Mets 1-2-3 to push the game to extra innings and the Nats quickly lost 2-1. It was so predictable. We have seen this story in different ways end up in the loss column.
The value of just one run is what changes seasons. The teams that win 1-run games well above .500 go to the playoffs. The teams that don’t are the ones that consistently do not execute, and generally finish with losing records.
The Nats could have scored more than 1-run earlier -or- they could have also clung to that 1-0 lead and try to win by best strategies and gone to Ferrer in the 8th inning. The Nationals were 1-for-10 in RISP situations in the game. They had plenty of opportunities, and squandered all but the one that scored their one run. But run prevention is equally important.
“Couldn’t get those couple runs we needed. … we just couldn’t drive in any runs. … It came down to some key at-bats, and we couldn’t get the job done.”
— manager Dave Martinez on the loss
“We’ve got to get the ball in the strike zone. We can’t chase. … Today, we swung at some pitches out of the zone with two strikes, and we hit the ball on the ground when we should’ve hit the ball in the air.”
Currently, the Nats are 14-21 in 1-run games (.400 winning %). They are 5-11 in extra inning games. Now consider this: four of the extra inning losses were by more than 1-run. That means the Nats finished those games at 14-25 when tied or trailing by 1-run in the 9th inning (a pathetic .359 winning %). You flip that around to 25-14 and the Nats are 79-71. Close to a playoff team. Certainly a winning team.
Contrast all of that with the Padres — a team that was 9-23 last year in 1-run games. They changed managers to Mike Shildt. This year the Padres are 21-17 in 1-run games and an amazing 9-1 in extra inning games. They have almost sealed the first Wild Card spot.
“When you get later in games, there’s more opportunities that are important, more magnified, about execution. Really, it’s about normalizing how you play the game.”
— Shildt said yesterday on MLB Network Radio
One-run games often are a measure of luck — but some are really about poor execution. Come on, 1-for-10 in RISP last night is awful, and especially when a productive out could have scored the winning run in this game. The value of just one-run has been missing from the Nationals for a long time now. Waiting for the 3-run homer rarely comes. The Padres have the least strikeouts in baseball — and are the only team under 1,000 strikeouts. They are also 12th in most home runs. They are doing something right. Shildt said it is about “execution and approach.”
The Padres best contact hitter, Luis Arraez, had gone 141 plate appearances without a strikeout until last night. His streak started on August 10. According to Elias, it was the longest streak since the 2004 season. Arraez tied Tony Gwynn for the second-longest streak in Padres history. Only Gwynn’s run of 170 straight plate appearances in 1995 was longer. In today’s game, Arraez has set the tone for his Padres team in 2-strike counts. The key is not chasing pitches, and taking your walks. Take what the game gives you and move the line. It is a non-selfish approach to baseball that used to be a standard. Today, it’s more about who wants to be the hero. Knocking in runs — gets you paid. Hitting homers really gets you paid. How many people knew about Arraez’s streak?
Maybe it just comes down to the players and execution — and managers and coaches do not matter. Do you believe that? Shildt is making a difference. His team traded away Juan Soto, and some of the best players from their 2023 roster left via free agency like Blake Snell, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, and Josh Hader. That is a lot of departing All-Stars. Yet, Shildt took the players they gave him, and has put together a great season so far. They added Arraez, Dylan Cease, and Michael King from the Soto trade. They also called up rookie Jackson Merrill and he has turned into their top-WAR player. Credit to Shildt and their coaches.
In Martinez’s defense, he does not have a Cease, and nobody has stepped up to the level of Merrill. And maybe this is just a glimpse into the Nats future that you can turn around the value of that one-run from one season to the next. The Padres are proof of that. In Shildt’s interview on MLB Network Radio, radio host Ryan Spilborghs asked Shildt about the “little things” he has done to win the close games. Yes, the little things matter. The attention to details. If winning is the goal, you have to decide whether you stick with your starter at 90-pitches after he gave up three hard hit outs (averaging over 106 mph) in the prior inning.
“We talked to Irvin; he felt great. He was commanding everything. I told him: ‘It’s your game. If you get in trouble, we’ll do something else.'”
— Martinez said after last night’s loss
It’s a team game — not “your” game. Win as a team or lose as a team. Sometimes you have to change your own normalizing to improve for the future. Just because it is your “normal” does not necessarily make it the path to success. Just because you have always done X or Y for your entire managerial career doesn’t mean it is the best path. Self-analyzing is a good place to start. What can you do to change for the better?
