Ah, yes the experts. They have their algorithms programmed by humans, and their human opinions. The Washington Nationals won their 62nd game last night with 24 remaining.
With last night’s win, Washington matched their 2023 record through 138 games. With at least 10 more wins, this 2024 team would surpass their accomplishments of 2023. But that team from last year had a pythagorean of only 67 games which is based on run differential by Baseball Reference’s site — and that pythagorean suggests the 2023 team was very lucky. This 2024 team is spot on to the pythagorean.
We sampled three sites from FanGraphs, Vegas lines, and Baseball Prospectus on the same day in late March for consistency. Baseball Prospectus had the Nats at 57.9 wins. FanGraphs were at 66 wins. Vegas lines at 66.5. Obviously, Baseball Prospectus blew it. We will see how FanGraphs did. From a mid-March sampling of Nats fans, they were taking the “Over” at 67 wins or more. That is looking like a good bet right now.
Thank the Nats’ El Presidente of Beísbol Operations, Mike Rizzo, for some impactful changes and acquisitions in the offseason. There was addition by subtraction and some addition by acquisition. And there was some old-school internal improvement with many of the position players like Luis Garcia Jr. as well as starting pitchers who all worked out in pitching labs with a to-do list prepared by the front office and coaching staff.
The internal improvement mostly worked, and paid early season dividends. At one point in May, the Nats were above .500 and in reach of a Wild Card spot in late June. On June 24 in San Diego, those dreams were kind of shattered by a crushing blown save. It became evident the team would be sellers at the trade deadline when they were swept in San Diego.
After the 2023 season, the Nationals parted ways with De Jon Watson and promoted Eddie Longosz to the VP of Player Development role. Both the team and Longosz had a lot riding on getting the farm system back on track as it stepped backwards under Watson. Early results look like a smashing success.
Longosz and his staff did exit interviews with every minor league player they were keeping from 2023 to 2024. That was nearly 100 minor leaguers who were given detailed plans. The team kept in-touch with many during the offseason until the “dead period” or as some call it the “quiet period” from November 17 to January 1 when teams cannot contact the players from roughly Thanksgiving to New Years. The MLB coaches, like Darnell Coles, were in touch with their MLB players and also some top prospects. The same for pitching coach, Jim Hickey.
When the season ends, we can fully assess the players, coaches and front office. With a little over three weeks remaining in the season, there is good reason for some optimism.
