James Wood graduates from being the Top Prospect! Top-30 Rankings!

Posted on August 10, 2024 by Forensicane
Photo by Sol Tucker for TalkNats

On Saturday, baseball’s top prospect, James Wood, reached the 130 at-bat milestone which moved his status from “prospect” to “rookie” within MLB’s definition. With Wood graduating as a prospect, a few of us in NatsTown gave TalkNats our Top-30s, and what we knew going into this is that few people agree on even a Top-10.

You can use different methodologies on ranking prospects from the 80/20 tools rankings to future value to the most potential. Who will be the best MLB players?

Sao Magnifico:

Loosely, I’d group these players into tiers: 1-3 (t100 prospects), 4-8 (borderline or potential future t100 prospects), 9-16 (solid prospects with upside but also some warning signs), 17-30 (pretty much lottery tickets at this point).

I do think we have a good farm system, as things stand, even though Wood’s graduation makes it look a little thinner at the top. Our pitcher development has improved substantially from previous years, we have a number of position players who are hitting for power as well as getting on base, and my primary concern at this point is balancing offensive with defensive value. I’m not worried about the likes of Crews or House in that context, but I think it’s an open question whether, say, Morales or Wallace hit for enough power to be everyday corner infielders; whether King or Lomavita will get on base enough for them to be stars, or their value will be entirely wrapped up in their gloves; and whether Dickerson or Feliz end up with a natural position as they mature. Every single farm system has those questions, though.

The emergence of a legitimate-looking pipeline of pitching prospects is welcome given Gore’s regression, Cavalli’s health, and Rutledge’s inconsistency. I’m usually beating the drum of wanting to convert some of these young arms to relief roles sooner rather than later, but it’s conceivable we’re in a situation as early as 2026 where we may be best served by doing the opposite. If you have a 4.5 ERA starter in the majors getting rocked every other game he pitches, and you have a 2.5 ERA top prospect at Triple-A who hasn’t given up more than two runs in a game in his last eight starts, you make the change, right? Well, what if that starter in the majors is named MacKenzie Gore, and the top prospect is named Jarlin Susana, or Alex Clemmey, or Travis Sykora? And speaking of Sykora, I absolutely think he’s earned a place in the t100 conversation, and I debated whether to rate him higher than House.

The obvious point to make here too is our surfeit of third basemen and outfielders. We could definitely consider drawing from that depth to make some trades as we move back into win-now mode in 2025 or 2026. Assuming House stays at third base, Wallace is kind of a luxury item there. Morales could be blocked if Yepez cements himself as our first baseman of the future; he’s in big trouble if we move Wood to first base or sign Soto with the intent of moving him to first at some point. Lile looks unlikely to get many opportunities with Wood, Crews, and Young in front of him. Etc.

  1. OF Dylan Crews
  2. 3B Brady House
  3. RHP Travis Sykora
  4. RHP Jarlin Susana
  5. INF Seaver King
  6. LHP Alex Clemmey
  7. 3B Cayden Wallace
  8. 3B/1B Yohandy Morales
  9. RHP Cade Cavalli
  10. C Caleb Lomavita
  11. OF Daylen Lile
  12. RHP Andry Lara
  13. SS Luke Dickerson
  14. SS/3B Angel Feliz
  15. RHP Tyler Stuart
  16. OF Robert Hassell III
  17. OF Victor Hurtado
  18. RHP Jackson Rutledge
  19. C Kevin Bazzell
  20. OF Andrew Pinckney
  21. OF Elijah Green
  22. LHP Jake Bennett
  23. RHP Zach Brzykcy
  24. OF Cristhian Vaquero
  25. RHP Marquis Grissom Jr.
  26. SS Kevin Made
  27. RHP Orlando Ribalta
  28. SS Rafael Ramírez Jr.
  29. 2B/OF Darren Baker
  30. RHP Brad Lord

Forensicane:

Forensicane’s prospect rankings: Nature of the player’s impact (needed tool, two-way potential), age and speed of ascendance, evidence for growing skills, dominance. As you can see, I downgraded unhealthy players until they show that they can be healthy. I will not rank someone who has not yet played, I just can’t. And I’m done ranking people based on draft pedigree. For that reason, I will not rank any of the draft picks until they actually play for a months and we can see what we are getting. If they will eventually get better, I’ll watch them, and get excited when they do. No more Yasel Antuna and Jackson Rutledge hype for me. It is a performance business.

So from that perspective:

(First 4) Highest rank – ceiling of being an all star player, or even better. I ranked House where I did because he is younger and more unpolished and has huge middle of the order potential. I’m not down on Crews, but he’s a college polished product and House is not, and with far fewer reps and body development, yet here we are. I ranked Susana higher because he’s a dominating unicorn and sustaining it at the same age as Sykora at a higher level. But Sykora may be a longer term higher ceiling. I can’t fathom why he is at A- still.

(5-11) Potential starting player for a winning-playoff team, starting pitcher, or closer. I ranked Cavalli here because we still don’t know how hurt he is. I know folks are off Millas, but I think he is that close,  and he has growing pop and a lot of different things going for him to make it, and if he does, he will outflank Keibert. As for Chapparo, he never had a chance to fail as a prospect, so why give up on him? Rizzo, at 559 PM, did not. But the guy hits balls out of a cannon, and has cut his K’s, and can play 1B. I think we are all surprised by Stuart, so I’m willing to be surprised by Chapparo as well. After a run of spectacular misfires of the international draft team pissing away Lerner money, I’m so impressed with what Angel Feliz has done at age 17. He looks like the kind of player that forces his way into promotions.

(12-20) Reason for true optimism, players with the goods or players on the rise, but I need to see more to be convinced, especially if rebounding from an injury. Wallace is injured but played up to his draft pedigree and can go both 3B and OF. Morales is back and was a fast riser last year. Lile has always looked good, is young, and keeps improving. Hassell I cannot give up on. Brzycky looks like the future but must be pooped in his first year post-surgery. Lara has also flashed but now fading. And T.J. White? Well, that’s the player everyone saw in the spring, the star of stars. Now let’s get him to AA and hope he takes over a position (1B-DH).

(21-30) Some meaningful reasons to dream on, and tangible results, but a long way to go because of 1) Age, low level and limited track record 2) Injury and in particular, uncertain recovery, for which I ranked lower (and keeping Jake Bennett, for example, outside the top 30.) 3) My insecurity about whether they are second division players when they finally do make it.

  1. Brady House
  2. Dylan Crews
  3. Jarlin Susana
  4. Travis Sykora
  5. Drew Millas 
  6. Andres Chaparro
  7. Cade Cavalli
  8. Brad Lord
  9. Jose Tena
  10. Tyler Stuart
  11. Angel Feliz
  12. Cayden Wallace
  13. Yohandy Morales
  14. Zach Brzykcy
  15. Daylen Lile
  16. Robert Hassell III
  17. Marquis Grissom Jr.
  18. Phillip Glasser
  19. Andry Lara
  20. T.J. White
  21. Andrew Pinckney
  22. Andrew Alvarez
  23. Orlando Ribalta     
  24. Alex Clemmey
  25. Carlos Romero
  26. Jose Feliz
  27. Cole Henry
  28. Dashyll Tejeda
  29. Jorgelys Mota
  30. Rodney Theophile

Steve M. :

For me, I have never seen a Nats’ farm system stacked like this. I started with 42 names and had to eliminate a dozen names to get to a Top-30. There will always be snubs. The Nats system has 165 players in the minor leagues (minus a few with too much MLB time to qualify as a prospect) then you have players like Jose Tena with prospect status on the MLB team. Finding a Top-30 is about 17.5% of all eligible players in the Nats system.

  1. OF Dylan Crews
  2. 3B Brady House
  3. 3B/1B Yohandy Morales
  4. RHP Travis Sykora
  5. INF Seaver King
  6. RHP Cade Cavalli
  7. RHP Jarlin Susana
  8. C Caleb Lomavita
  9. RHP Tyler Stuart
  10. LHP Alex Clemmey
  11. 3B Cayden Wallace
  12. SS Luke Dickerson
  13. SS/3B Angel Feliz
  14. LHP Jake Bennett
  15. OF Robert Hassell III
  16. IF Jose Tena
  17. OF Victor Hurtado
  18. RHP Andry Lara
  19. RHP Brad Lord
  20. C Kevin Bazzell
  21. 1B/DH T.J. White
  22. OF Daylen Lile
  23. OF Andrew Pinckney
  24. OF Elijah Green
  25. RHP Zach Brzykcy
  26. OF Cristhian Vaquero
  27. LHP Andrew Alvarez
  28. RHP Marquis Grissom Jr.
  29. RHP Orlando Ribalta
  30. RHP Jose Feliz

Granitrocmonster:

  1. Dylan Crews
  2. Brady House
  3. Travis Sykora
  4. Jarlin Susana
  5. Alex Clemmey
  6. Seaver King
  7. Cayden Wallace
  8. Yohandy Morales
  9. Daylen Lile
  10. Cade Cavalli
  11. Caleb Lomavita
  12. Tyler Stuart
  13. Andry Lara
  14. Robert Hassell III
  15. Luke Dickerson
  16. Angel Feliz
  17. Victor Hurtado
  18. Jake Bennett
  19. Jackson Rutledge
  20. Elijah Green
  21. Cristhian Vaquero
  22. Kevin Bazzell
  23. Andrew Pinckney
  24. Kevin Made
  25. Brad Lord
  26. Zach Brzykcy
  27. Orlando Ribalta
  28. Jackson Kent
  29. Andrew Alvarez
  30. Marquis Grissom Jr.

Drazthegr8:

  1. Dylan Crews
  2. Brady House
  3. Travis Sykora
  4. Jarlin Susana
  5. Cade Cavalli
  6. Seaver King
  7. Alex Clemmey
  8. Tyler Stuart
  9. Yohandy Morales
  10. Daylen Lile
  11. T.J. White
  12. Caleb Lomavita
  13. Luke Dickerson
  14. Andry Lara
  15. Jackson Rutledge
  16. Elijah Green
  17. Cayden Wallace
  18. Robert Hassell III
  19. Victor Hurtado
  20. Cristhian Vaquero
  21. Jose Tena
  22. Jake Bennett
  23. Brad Lord
  24. Kevin Bazzell
  25. Angel Feliz
  26. Cole Henry
  27. Andrew Pinckney
  28. Zach Brzykcy
  29. Matt Cronin
  30. Andres Chaparro

Gaston:

  1. Dylan Crews
  2. Brady House
  3. Cade Cavalli
  4. Travis Sykora,
  5. Jarlin Susana
  6. Seaver King
  7. Alex Clemmey
  8. Yohandy Morales
  9. Caleb Lomavita
  10. Cayden Wallace
  11. Robert Hassell III
  12. Daylen Lile
  13. Jake Bennett
  14. Luke Dickerson
  15. Elijah Green
  16. Tyler Stuart
  17. Kevin Bazzell
  18. Angel Feliz SS
  19. Drew Millas
  20. Zach Brzykcy
  21. Cristhian Vaquero
  22. Victor Hurtado
  23. Brad Lord
  24. Andrew Pinckney
  25. Andry Lara
  26. Jose Tena
  27. Andrew Alvarez
  28. T.J. White
  29. Marquis Grissom
  30. Jose Feliz P

Baseball America:

  1. Dylan Crews
  2. Brady House
  3. Cade Cavalli
  4. Alex Clemmey
  5. Yohandy Morales
  6. Jarlin Susana
  7. Seaver King
  8. Caleb Lomavita
  9. Cayden Wallace
  10. Jackson Rutledge
  11. Cristhian Vaquero
  12. Victor Hurtado
  13. Robert Hassell III
  14. Andry Lara
  15. Luke Dickerson
  16. Travis Sykora
  17. Daylen Lile
  18. Jake Bennett
  19. Elijah Green
  20. Rafael Ramirez
  21. Andrew Pinckney
  22. Kevin Bazzell
  23. Tyler Stuart
  24. Jackson Kent
  25. Jose Tena
  26. Zach Brzykcy
  27. Angel Feliz
  28. Drew Millas

MLB Pipeline:

  1. Dylan Crews
  2. Brady House
  3. Travis Sykora
  4. Jarlin Susana
  5. Seaver King
  6. Alex Clemmey
  7. Luke Dickerson
  8. Cade Cavalli
  9. Yohandy Morales
  10. Caleb Lomavita
  11. Cayden Wallace
  12. Daylen Lile
  13. Robert Hassell III
  14. Kevin Bazzell
  15. Victor Hurtado
  16. Angel Feliz
  17. Andry Lara
  18. Jake Bennett
  19. Tyler Stuart
  20. Rafael Ramirez Jr.
  21. Elijah Green
  22. Zach Brzykcy
  23. Cristhian Vaquero
  24. Jackson Kent
  25. Kevin Made
  26. Marquis Grissom
  27. Jackson Rutledge
  28. Andrew Pinckney
  29. Orlando Ribalta
  30. Brad Lord

Do you have a Top-30 that you want to add to this?

This entry was posted in InGame. Bookmark the permalink.