After the 2023 MLB draft, nearly a year ago, a discussion was started as to the future callups of the top prospects on the Washington Nationals. The team had just drafted Dylan Crews, and the Nats had James Wood and Brady House as the other two prospects in the system. The Wood part of that discussion was solved on July 1 when the Nats called him up for his MLB debut. Crews and House are currently at the Nats’ Triple-A affiliate in Rochester.
The next part of the discussion comes to the timing of callups for House and Crews. There are certainly “team control” ramifications. An MLB player, per the CBA, gets a maximum of 6+ seasons of team control prior to reaching free agency, but it can certainly be less given the new Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI) rules that immediately impacted the Orioles with the Adley Rutschman callup. If you callup a player 16 days into the season whereby they have 171 days or less in service time you can get to the maximum of team control in the 6+ seasons — but the risk to the team is under the new service time PPI manipulation rules.
By calling up Top-100 prospects, while maintaining their prospect status, that happens prior to reaching 130 at-bats and/or 45 days of MLB service time threshold. At that point, the player’s status turns from a prospect to a rookie. That would affect both House and Crews if they are called up in the next two weeks, and that is why neither were called up at the trade deadline.
Team Control Implications:
If Wood is never sent back to the Minor Leagues and doesn’t place in the top two spots of the Rookie of the Year voting, he will be set to be a free agent after the 2030 season. Clearly, House and Crews will have their service time and callups strategically placed. If both come up on August 20 (for example) and have less than 130 at-bats in MLB this season, then both will retain their prospect status and be PPI eligible for the 2025 season. But do the Nationals want Wood, House, and Crews to all become free agents after the 2030 season? That is the question versus waiting on promoting one or both like general manager Mike Rizzo did with Wood this year.
House, who had a walk-off gap hit yesterday for Triple-A Rochester, is currently ahead of Crews right now statistically. House is batting .321 with an .830 OPS. Crews is batting .252 with a .753 OPS. As we know, minor league stats are not the be-all-end-all as Trey Lipscomb is the perfect example that his .290 batting average and .763 OPS at Triple-A, rarely translates.
Building a Better Roster:
Roster construction starts with having good players and great team chemistry. No team will have a 26-man roster of All-Stars even though some have tried to get close to that. Winning is maximizing the output of players. Coaching them up and great player development can take a good player and make them better.
Now that we got that out of the way, a team is built on draft picks, international free agency, trade acquisitions, waiver claims, and free agent acquisitions. If you think waiver claims don’t work out, that is how Hunter Harvey was acquired in 2022, and he was just flipped in a trade for Cayden Wallace and Caleb Lomavita. Reliever Robert Garcia was also acquired through a waiver claim.
In less than a month, the Washington Nationals have added 26 new players to the roster via trades — and players signed through the draft. Lomavita is the player who shows up on both lists since he was a PTBNL as an acquired competitive balance draft pick that was acquired in the Harvey trade. By the odds, most of those 26 newly acquired players will never make an MLB roster. What’s more important is creating stars from those 26 minor league players.
We all have a good idea of the players who will be part of the 2025 Opening Day roster like CJ Abrams, Luis Garcia Jr., James Wood, Jacob Young, and Keibert Ruiz for the position players. That is just five locks with four open spots (DH, first base, third base and one corner outfield spot). The starting rotation only has two locks with Jake Irvin and MacKenzie Gore. Sure, there are other players who could end up on the roster like Juan Yepez, Mitchell Parker, and DJ Herz — but there will need to be some key additions that will add positive WAR to this team.
The only reason that Ruiz is listed as a lock is because he is under a long-term contract, and as of right now, there is nobody to supplant him. The team has tried both Riley Adams and Drew Millas, and neither have seemed to prove to be any better. As of now, Ruiz is a negative WAR liability at -0.7.
“Who else do I have? That’s my answer. I mean, you can give me somebody better, then I can play somebody instead of him. …”
— ex-Nats manager Dusty Baker said during the 2016 NLDS when he asked why he was playing Danny Espinosa
Case and point that even on a stacked postseason roster you won’t have it filled entirely with All-Star players. The key is making Ruiz better. Really, the key is making all of the players better. We had an earlier discussion on Wood and how bad his defense has been so far. He becomes a player who obviously should be on the roster, but his defense is a concern, and he might require a position change.
Outfield Jumps are defined by Statcast as “Feet Saved or Lost on Outfield Plays Due to Reaction and Route” and of all outfielders who have made at least 10 plays this year — we knew that Jesse Winker was the worst early in the season. But now Winker is 2nd to worst in MLB. James Wood is now the worst at -4.4. That is obviously a huge impact into why Wood’s OAA is a -4.0 in only 26 games. You hope most of this is acclimation to the left field position. You hope Wood can improve his defense. If not, this is a huge problem, because, you know, DEFENSE MATTERS.
Building the Roster from Outside the Organization:
Teams that build from youth in their farm system have a better chance to sustain a winning record for much longer than a team that tries to build from spending “and maybe even be a little bit stupid about it.” Once teams commit to trying to spend to build a winning team, they have to keep spending at a time when their farm system is suffering and their team is aging. Big market revenue teams like the Yankees have done it that way, and the Phillies have been testing that model into their sixth year. Fortunately for the Phillies, their revenues are soaring to offset the cost of their high payrolls — but at what point will the old parts fail? That is the flaw in the spend Spend SPEND model. The Phillies might win a championship this year, but if they don’t — that’s a problem as you keep testing fate.
,So yes, build through the youth and top prospects, and supplement the weak spots with some expensive star players. The Washington Nationals are a mid-market revenue team at most, and small-market revenue team at worst. Some, as we wrote, is self-inflicted, some inflicted by outside forces (MASN), and some by a conflicted fan base that won’t spend their money on a losing team. Stephen Strasburg‘s original contract for CBT purposes will be off the books after the 2026 season, and with his large number in the CBT payroll for next year, the Nats are still only at $80 million going into the offseason and $101 million with CBT benefits.
Dare to Dream:
There is plenty of room for the Nats to spend money, and they will open the offseason at $25 million below the team’s 2024 Opening Day payroll. Give Rizzo enough money to get two impact players, and the Nats should instantly be a legitimate contender next season once you add in House and/or Crews. The two biggest names to add to instantly convert this team to a contender is adding Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes. That would add extreme offense, and an ace at the top of the starting rotation. Adding both might cost $75 million per year combined at a time that the Nats have some other holes. Is there any way that a $185 million CBT payroll could happen? Based on this year’s payrolls in MLB, that would place the Nats at the 11th highest payroll in comparison.
The building blocks are clearly in place as you can see on MLB Pipeline — and that list needs to be updated with the new draft picks. The Nationals have the fifth best farm system as ranked by FanGraphs.
“I think you see the light at the end of the tunnel. I think anybody who has watched the team closely and critiqued us — they see that we’re getting close. When you have emerging young starters and an emerging core group of young players — and more on the way, I think you supplement that with some astute free agent signings — and you’re right in it.”
— Rizzo said that to the Sports Junkies just yesterday, after saying earlier this month that he had payroll flexibility
Indeed, the future is bright. Build revenue and spend it in free agency, and transition from rebuild mode to contender mode. If you build it, the fans will come, and revenues will rise quickly. The time is now. Dare to dream?
