First off, the MLB Draft is just over 2-days away, and that is taking center stage as the Washington Nationals enter the All-Star break. That is the main focus for general manager Mike Rizzo and his front office. But for trade news, there is some: Sources tell us that the Nats will listen on any and all offers. It doesn’t mean there will be a huge sell-off — but they will listen on any players with less than 2-years of team control.
To think, we are just 19-days removed from that goosebump optimism on June 23 when the Nats were just 1.0 game under .500 — and in 3rd place while looking like a legitimate Wild Card contender at just a ½ game from the third slot. On June 24, the team started a series in San Diego and blew a 3-run lead in the 10th inning — and lost a heart-breaker. It was the type of loss that this young team did not handle well and could not pull themselves back up. They’ve lost nine additional games since that point in the standings to fall to a season’s worst 10-games under .500 after being manhandled in New York. If the Nats swept the Mets, the Nats would have been just 4.0 games under .500. If, only if.
Remember, the Nats roster is now the third youngest in MLB. Yesterday’s starting lineup had an average age of 25.7 years. Overall the Nats roster is one of the youngest and only trailing Cleveland and Oakland as the youngest teams. The Fountain of Youth needs leaders. Where is that coming from?
The team has gone 4-13 since that point in San Diego. If they went 13-4 or even 10-7, like they could have gone, the Nats would be buyers. It would have taken a miracle run to avoid being partial sellers at the trade deadline on July 30 at 6 p.m. EDT, and that is just 2½ short weeks from today.
The players who are most likely to be traded are the ones on expiring deals like Jesse Winker and Dylan Floro. The other two players on expiring deals, Trevor Williams and Joey Gallo, are both on the injured list.
The names getting the most mention have team control through next year like Lane Thomas, Kyle Finnegan, and Hunter Harvey. But you would have to be blown away with trade offers to move on from Finnegan and Harvey because they are most likely the key pieces of the 2025 bullpen.
“You’re seeing these [young players on the roster] learn each and every day, and get better each and every day — with some backsteps and some sidesteps along the way and some hiccups — but you can’t tell me that you can’t see the ascension for all these young players. I think when you factor that in — and our young pitching — the way they’re [performing], and the young players coming up, and the payroll flexibility — you have to be enthusiastic about where this franchise is going in the future.”
— Rizzo said to the Sports Junkies on Wednesday
To hear Rizzo speak the words, “payroll flexibility,” in a mid-season discussion is telling. Yes, we mentioned it earlier in the week, but to have Rizzo say it has more impact. You can certainly also read into what Rizzo said that he believes he will be spending in the off-season. In mid-June, we reported that a source told us that money would be available from ownership if the Nats decided to be buyers and in particular for salary dump players. But now, that won’t happen. The Nats were never expected to trade top prospects at this trade deadline even if the team was in the Wild Card hunt.
The rebuild is basically completed with the next step to add a key player or two in free agency. The current rebuild started just three years ago when Rizzo traded Max Scherzer and Trea Turner in a package-deal at the 2021 trade deadline.
“If you can’t get excited about where we’re at here, right now, then you’re not paying attention to this rebuild. It’s well underway. Starting pitching is king and we’ve got that. … It’s exciting to be here.”
— Mike Rizzo on @JunksRadio just two weeks ago
What the Nats have done in the past three weeks is part ways with Eddie Rosario and Nick Senzel while also moving Joey Meneses to Triple-A. That is a trio of players who averaged over 31 years of age combined. They were replaced by youth and headlined by top prospect James Wood making his MLB debut on July 1. The team also brought up Trey Lipscomb, Juan Yepez and Harold Ramirez.
That was then:
This is now.
What the San Diego series showed was the team could not overcome multiple mistakes from their sloppy play. This is now becoming a mark on this team as to what mistake will they make today to turn a win into a loss. Their baserunning mistakes, defensive blunders, and bullpen meltdowns have been hard to watch in these past 2+ weeks. Some of the most disappointing losses as we have watched a 5-run lead turn into tight losses, and games where the offense just mails it in to accept shutouts.
The value of just 1.0 run makes manager Dave Martinez‘s mantra of go 1-0 today — a mantra that needs to be retired. Martinez has to come up with a new schtick because that should have been left in 2019 when it meant something. That was the 2019 team’s thing. This 2024 needs an identity. They need new voices. The managerial and coaching mistakes have piled up also. The only bright spots have come from the starting pitching — and they would be a lot better if the defense was actually good — and when we say “defense,” that includes the catcher also if they want to remember that they are defenders too.
Sure, the Nats have a legit Gold Glove center fielder in Jacob Young, and Luis Garcia Jr. has been solid at second base — but every other position has been well below average. Even with Young, the Nats have SUNK TO 29th in baseball in defense behind the pitcher — add in the worst catching defense in MLB — and the Nats are the worst defensive team in baseball by a wide margin.
In 2022, the Nats were also last in defense, and Rizzo promised over and over to a group of season ticket holders that he would fix the defense. He said, “I promise” over and over. He did deliver a better defense for 2023, but then went back on his promise in assembling this 2024 team, and somehow the team’s 2024 All-Star, CJ Abrams, is statistically the worst fielder on the team by OAA and the worst defensive shortstop in baseball. Why has he regressed as a fielder? That is a mystery. Then you have the 2023 Minor League Gold Glove third baseman, Lipscomb, and he is a -2.0 fielder for the Nats.
The non-plays where a fielder does not get to a ball is a large component of what OAA measures in the negative. Abrams and Wood had those plays this past week. Then you have catcher, Riley Adams, who didn’t bother to frame (present) a clear strike-3 on a pitch yesterday that would have been the third out in the fifth inning. The at-bat turned into a walk — and then a 0-0 game with 2 outs turned into a disastrous 4-run inning on MacKenzie Gore‘s record en route to a 6-0 loss yesterday. These are the LITTLE THINGS. It is unacceptable unless you want to blame the ump for blowing a call that the catcher, himself, didn’t think was a strike.
“[Wood] was looking at the infielders [on that fly ball]. He needs to come run. Outfielders take precedence over infielders. He needs to come and just catch the ball.”
— Nats’ manager Davey Martinez said after Sunday’s game
With Wood being a newbie, you chalk that up to inexperience, and it won’t happen again. In Abrams case, his range has almost become a 3-foot circle that if it isn’t hit directly to him or softer contact, he isn’t getting to it. The excuse, well it was 102 mph off the bat, hasn’t stopped other shortstops from making those plays. All we hear are excuses. What we need to see is improvement.
The Nats’ manager has spoken a lot recently about winning games in regulation as his team is just 2-7 in extra inning games. So the team is actually 40-45 in games in regulation. Imagine if the team was the reverse and 7-2 in extra innings and voila, they are a .500 team. Score 1.0 more run in those games in regulation, and you never reach extra innings. Martinez’s team is a disappointing 8-13 in 1-run games this year. While these 2024 Nats have been blown-out lately, that hasn’t always been the case. The team had been playing a lot of tight games.
So what will this team look like if they traded Winker? He is the second best offensive player after Abrams’ .832 OPS. Winker has an .801 mark, and then the next closest is Garcia Jr. at .742, and Thomas at .723. Yes, the newbies in Wood at .695 and Yepez at .862 could help — but you see the holes in this team.
With the starting pitching looking so good with Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker, and MacKenzie Gore, and Cade Cavalli working back from his TJ surgery along with DJ Herz learning how to pitch in the majors, the focus could really be on an offseason of improving the position players on both sides of the ball: offense and defense. You would want Winker back potentially next year as the DH. Do you forget about trading him and work on an extension deal now?
While Dylan Crews could be the other top prospect to call-up as Rizzo talked about calling up top prospects in the plural of the word. The outfield to start 2025 should be Wood RF, Young CF, Crews LF. Get them acclimated by the end of this season.
The infield will most likely continue to be Abrams and Garcia as the middle infielders with the hope that Abrams can raise the bar on his own defense. Lipscomb does not look like the answer at third base, and would Rizzo call-up top prospect Brady House without staggering his top prospects? If he did, then Wood, Crews, and House would all have their team service clocks end after the 2030 season.
The 2024 MLB Draft is just a little more than two days away. The Nats will add to their farm system with a No. 10 pick. Now that the team looks like they will finish with a poor record in 2024, they will be eligible for a No. 1 pick in the lottery, and the odds say that the Nats will end up with a Top-6 draft position. That will add another blue-chipper next year potentially, and with any luck another future superstar.
Also keep in mind, Rizzo might fleece a team at the trade deadline for some more prospect capital. While the dreams of a Wild Card berth have disappeared, all eyes will shift to the draft then the All-Star break, and finally to the trade deadline. Last year if you recall, Rizzo did not do much at the trade deadline. He listened to offers and really just moved on Jeimer Candelario who brought back Herz and Kevin Made. Rizzo once again went with a quick-to-the-Majors approach like he did with most of his trades since the 2021 deadline.
Look at the 40-man roster and you will see trade deadline deals that stacked this lineup with Gore, Josiah Gray, Herz, Mason Thompson, Drew Millas, Riley Adams, Keibert Ruiz, Abrams, Thomas, and Wood. That is 10-players plus three more Top-20 prospects in the minor leagues who have been acquired through deadline trades.
When the MLB team is playing poorly, the focus should go to what is going right. Finally the player development system is moving in the right direction, and that seems to be going better with the pitching than the hitting. You have Brad Lord and Andrew Alvarez in Triple-A plus Andry Lara, Jarlin Susana, Travis Sykora and José Feliz (DSL). Also don’t forget about the injured Jake Bennett who might be the best of them all. Expect Susana and Sykora to push towards the Top-100 prospects.
The team could have gone with Lord in a spot start tonight, and per a source were seriously considering it — but in the end, they will give Jackson Rutledge, the team’s first round pick in 2019, another shot at an MLB start. Two days ago, Don H. wrote that Rutledge in the bullpen would be a smart transition. Well, Rizzo is giving Rutledge 9-lives at being an MLB starter. His devilish 6.66 ERA for Triple-A Rochester this year does not instill much confidence — but yet, here we are. Rutledge has a 6.86 MLB career ERA in a small sample size of five appearances.
While Rutledge might be a frustration on the drafting decisions by Rizzo as well as the previous pitcher development, Don H. makes a point that evaluators, even at Rutledge’s draft, were saying that Rutledge had serious risk of falling to a bullpen role. The thing was that within the next 25 picks after Rutledge was George Kirby, Anthony Volpe, and Gunnar Henderson. There was star value there.
There is a reminder in every draft that Rizzo and his crew had other choices. Stars, futures, and rosters are built in the draft. You know who else is a high school shortstop like Volpe and Henderson were in their 2019 draft class: Bryce Rainer and per a source as we reported yesterday the Nats might snag him if available. Today, we saw from ESPN, they are also reporting that. The question is whether he will be taken before the Nats pick at No. 10. Rainer is a product of Harvard-Westlake, the same prep school that Lucas Giolito graduated from.
Whether Rainer is added to the Nats or it is Braden Montgomery, Trey Yesavage, or Nick Kurtz, each player will be pegged to have the top player available after the Pirates make their choice at No. 9 to be picked by the Nats. We’ve even heard that JJ Wetherholt might drop. While it is doubtful the Nats would go underslot, the names of Cam Smith was revealed by Smith himself that he had spoken to the Nats. Some have James Tibbs III, some have prep star Konnor Griffin, and some have Caleb Lomavita to the Nats. The guesses are all over the place. The first 9-picks will determine who is available — and you go with best player available.
So yes, these next 18-days will be transformative to the future of the Washington Nationals. The final question might be whether Rizzo makes any coaching changes? You really have to wonder about that too.
