The Nationals have the second most singles in baseball, with 86. They strike out the least in the entire league (17.8%) and get on base an average amount while having the 12th-best batting average in the league.
But, they have one of the worst offenses in all of baseball.
The simple clip above showcases the outdated belief that batting average and on-base percentage are useful metrics. Simply put, the Nats are relying on small ball too much right now.
And, to prove this, when you use a stat that takes batting average entirely out of the picture in ISO (isolated power), the Nats are by far the worst team in the league — posting a mark of just .083, with the next closest being the Tigers at .105. For reference, the league average currently sits around .160 and the highest is the Rays at .291.
So, why is it that having the lowest strikeout rate in the league is not necessarily a good thing? Well, the combination of the Nats’ little power and the club’s strikeout rate is directly correlated.
Striking out isn’t a determining factor of success — the Giants are a top-10 offense in baseball so far this season (21 homers, 110 wRC+) but have struck out the most this season (28.0%). Whereas a team like the Rays, the best offense in baseball (164 wRC+, 30 homers) is right behind the Nats (82 wRC+, 5 homers) for the lowest strikeout rate in the league.
Considering the Rays are breaking all sorts of records at the current moment though, they aren’t exactly a fair team to compare to. So, if you put aside the Rays, the three teams that are right behind Washington and Tampa Bay for the lowest strikeout rate in baseball are the Diamondbacks, Guardians, and Mets — all struggling offenses this season. And, the three teams behind the Giants for the highest K rate in the majors are the Tigers, Royals, and Marlins — another trio of struggling offenses this season.
The point being, aside from a few outliers, usually the best offenses are towards the middle in terms of striking out at the plate. And, striking out is OK, just too much or too little isn’t always the best way to produce runs.
Simply put, the Nats aren’t hitting the ball hard enough right now. They rank 29th in the league in barrels per plate appearance (3.1%), ahead of just the Guardians (fourth-lowest K rate), while the Diamondbacks (third-lowest K rate) are in 27th, and the Mets (fifth-lowest strikeout rate) are 26th.
And, it’s a similar-looking ranking using exit velocity instead of Barrels/PA — the Nats rank 29th as well in average exit velocity (86.8). Either metric one uses, for the most part (with the exception of a few outliers), it looks very similar.
This shows a somewhat direct correlation between hitting the ball hard and striking out. Now, there is some randomness to it — the Rays are destroying the league in the Barrels/PA metric at a clip of 10.9%, and really in all metrics, but as mentioned own the second-lowest punchout rate in the league, and the Tigers have the sixth-lowest Barrel/PA in the league but also own the second-highest K rate in the majors.
But, for the most part, it does correlate. The Royals are striking out at the third-highest rate in the league, and it shows that they’re hitting the ball somewhat hard which correlates to their number of strikeouts: they rank 13th in Barrels/PA and eighth in average exit velocity. This isn’t working out so well for Kansas City, as they just a 63 wRC+, the 29th-ranked mark in the league, but it shows that striking out more usually amounts to hitting the ball harder.
And, it’s a similar-looking ranking using exit velocity instead of Barrels/PA — the Nats rank 29th as well in average exit velocity (86.8). Either metric one uses, for the most part (with the exception of a few outliers), the rankings look very similar.
This shows a somewhat direct correlation between hitting the ball hard and striking out. Now, there is some randomness to it — the Rays are destroying the league in the Barrels/PA metric at a clip of 10.9%, and really in all metrics, but as mentioned own the second-lowest punchout rate in the league, and the Tigers have the sixth-lowest Barrel/PA in the league but also own the second-highest K rate in the majors.
But, for the most part, it does correlate. For example, the Royals are striking out at the third-highest rate in the league, and it shows that they’re hitting the ball somewhat hard which correlates to their number of strikeouts: they rank 13th in Barrels/PA and eighth in average exit velocity. This isn’t working out so well for Kansas City, as they just a 63 wRC+, the 29th-ranked mark in the league, but it shows that striking out more usually amounts to hitting the ball harder.
This isn’t saying teams should try to lean one way or another, though, but more explains teams’ issues at the plate. Every team is obviously different and there are plenty of ways to succeed no matter how one team’s lineup is constructed. The Royals could use more small ball to help balance out their lineup while the Nats need more power.
It is only 13 games in, but the stats are very telling: the Nats aren’t hitting the ball hard enough. Small ball isn’t working, and the third-lowest wRC+ in the league and just five homers through 12 games puts it in bold letters. Obviously, the Nats aren’t aiming for much success this season, but this more than not explains why the club is having such difficulties putting runs across the plate despite having solid box score numbers – as well as the lowest strikeout rate in baseball.
