Point-CounterPoint: Lineup Protection? How Valuable Is It? Part 1 of ???

Don: As you know I used to be able to download the MLB Game Day data. Something changed at the beginning of 2019 and it stopped working. Well, thanks to having time due to retiring, I think I just figured out my issue/problem with accessing the recent years of MLB GameDay data. I just successfully loaded all the data for the 2020 season. I have done a brief quality check (recognizing that there will always be some discrepancies).

I am thinking I would try to do some analysis on the idea of “protection”. I am not convinced that protection is a given for all types of batters – and most specifically Soto. I’ve always felt that protection matters more for free swingers – guys who will bite on pitches out of the zone. That is most definitely not Juan Soto.

And I freely admit most of my motivation to look at this comes from all the talk about needed a BIG BAT after Soto to protect him. I think we just need someone who keeps the line moving (i.e., does not make outs).

Steve: That would be HUGE. When you look at it, we need to look at the issue of Soto stranded on the bases in comparison to Freddie Freeman once you back out home runs. That would be interesting.

Don: Interesting idea. I was actually considering some other approaches, but lets look at this first since that data is already easily available on Baseball Reference.

Since we are talking about the idea of protection, the statistician/data analyst in me says we need to look at runs scored independent of whether he is already on base. The ability to get on base is part of Protection.

Steve: Good point. One of the reasons that protection is important is getting good pitches to hit; getting on-base in general.

Don: So let us look at the Freeman and Soto’s numbers behind their slash lines using BBREF.

For Freeman:

• PAs: 262
• Runs: 51
• Hits: 73
• BBs: 45 (of which, 7 were IBBs)
• HRs: 13

So calculating the percent the time Freeman scored as a percentage of PAs (that were not HRs) is (51-13)/(262-13) = 15.26%

For Soto:

• PAs: 196
• Runs: 39
• Hits: 54
• BBs: 41 (of which, 12 were IBBs)
• HRs: 13

So calculating the percent the time Soto scored as a percentage of PAs (that were not HRs) is (39-13)/(196-13) = 14.21%

So if Soto had the same rate of runs scoring as Freeman, he would have scored (15.265-14.21%)*196 = 2.06 runs in 47 games – which is slightly more than 7 more runs if he played 162 games – or one more run every 23 games. Does not seem like a big difference to me considering that Freeman had Marcell Ozuna protecting him most of he PAs.

Steve: So only 1% more. That to me says that the problem isn’t as large as people make it out to be (including me initially), but Soto had a .490 OBP compared to Freeman’s .462 so if you adjust for that point that Soto was on-base 6% more (approximately)  yet scored 1% less it has to be weighted slightly over 1%. Again not terrible. Honestly, I was thinking a 5% difference not 1%. That kind of disproves that it was ultimately costing the team. Yes, Soto got pitched around more but he also scored runs at a high rate if you use a 162 game extrapolation he would have scored a staggering 134 runs in a full-season!

Don: Yes. That is another way of looking at it. And while I would be the last to say correlation means causation, it is worth noting that the Nats were 19-28 in the 47 games he played, and

• Soto was intentionally walked in 10 of them: they were 5-5. And he scored in 6 of them and in those 6 games the Nats were 4-2.
• In 8 of those games he was intentionally walked once. In two of them he got two IBBs. He scored in both and the Nats won both of the games where he was intentionally walked twice.

And while there is no way to assume a cause-effect relationship, Soto getting on base is a good thing for the Nats. So maybe IBBs are not a bad thing.

Steve: OMG, that is mind-blowing. It wasn’t even a 2% difference. Just mind-blowing. Maybe getting walked isn’t a bad thing if the RBIs and Run Scored are still over that 100/100 pace. Here is  who knocked him in the most:

Asdrubal  Cabrera	5
Yan Gomes	4
Josh Harrison	3
Kurt Suzuki	3
Carter Kieboom	2
Luis Garcia	2
Howie Kendrick	2

What I unfortunately do not have is the exact RISP batting average for each player who batted behind Soto in the lineup when he was in scoring position, but below is the team’s 2020 RISP chart with their overall numbers. Think how little Josh Harrison played and he knocked in Soto a total of three times. Very interesting for sure as he was a .320 batter in RISP situations in 2020. Don’t get me wrong, he is an RBI hitters dream to hit after him because he is on-base almost 50% of the time, and he actually has good speed.

Don:  The details of who drove Soto in pretty much jive with the data I downloaded.

But first, here is the distribution of who batted behind Freeman and Soto.

After Freeman			After Soto
Marcell Ozuna	234	90.7%	Asdrubal Cabrera	95	49.0%
Travis d’Arnaud	20	7.75%	Howie Kendrick	68	34.7%
Adam Duvall	2	0.78%	Kurt Suzuki	13	6.63%
Johan Camargo	1	0.39%	Yadiel Hernandez	9	4.59%
Adeiny Hechavarria	1	0.39%	Eric Thames	6	3.06%
	.	.	Wilmer Difo	2	1.02%
	.	.	Josh Harrison	1	0.51%

As expected, Ozuna batted behind Freeman almost exclusively. You have to combine Asdrubal, Howie and Kurt to match Ozuna’s percentage. And then combine Yadiel and Thames to match d’Arnaud.

I’m curious to look at the individual PAs where Soto and Freeman scored. The MLB Game Day data is relatively complete. It has details about most every facet of the game. The logic was a bit of a challenge, but I was able to generate reports that include all the PAs in every game where they scored – starting with how they got on base, and ending with how they scored.

Steve: This is just so fascinating about a disciplined hitter like Soto that the most important aspect of the team’s success with both Trea Turner and Juan Soto on-base so much is that the batters behind them are driving them in. You have to make teams pay for walking Juan and many times you had Trea and Juan on-base at the same time. “Ducks on the Pond” or “Ribeyes on the grill” they like to call it. An RBI machines dream to have those opportunities. This brings me back to finding players who excel in those spots. Clearly Josh Harrison did in 2020 in a small sample size, but maybe you can bat a great lefty behind Soto who can platoon with Harrison.

I think that is how I would analyze potential trade and free agent targets for the “big bat” behind Soto based on their ability to make the other team pay. “Clutch” can’t be measured they say, but RISP can. Some guys shrink in those spots while others step up. A few names keep shining on my charts: DJ LeMahieu and Michael Brantley. Another name on there is Josh Bell who really stepped up in RISP in 2019. He was awful in all facets in 2020, but he was one of the TN favorites to trade for if the price was right.

I think we analyze RISP over a long enough period relative to their non-RISP BA and see if any other names come up.

Don: Great idea. Clearly a lot more to see what we can discover from the data.

In the meantime, as expected (as mentioned above), Marcell Ozuna batted after Freeman most of the time (over 90%); while Soto had a lot more players batting after him (Cabrera the most at 49%). So for the times that Freeman and Soto got on base, lets look at the distribution of what Ozuna did vs. whoever batter after Soto. Yes, it is a bit of an apples to oranges comparison. But the issue at hand is whether Soto really needs a Big Bat right after him. So here are the results:

Ozuna:

• Made an Out: 12 times or 31.6% of the time
• Drove Freeman In: 14 times or 36.8% of the time
• Something Productive: 12 times or 31.6% of the time

Whoever followed Soto:

• Made an Out: 9 times or 34.6% of the time
• Drove Soto In: 9 times or 34.6% of the time
• Something Productive: 8 times or 30.8% of the time

The Made an Out numbers jumps out at me – they are not that different.

Here are the details about each time either Freeman or Soto scored. All of this info comes from the Game Day data. The descriptive text comes from the AtBat data table and the Scoring Event from the Runner table. I included that because there are a few cases where the description does not include scoring detail (e.g., Freeman scored once on a balk).

For Freddie Freeman

AB #	Freddie Freeman on 07/26 @NYN, Inning 1	Scoring Event
3	Freddie Freeman walks.
4	Marcell Ozuna flies out to center fielder Brandon Nimmo. Ozzie Albies to 3rd.
5	Matt Adams singles on a ground ball to center fielder Brandon Nimmo. Ozzie Albies scores. Freddie Freeman to 3rd.
6	Dansby Swanson singles on a fly ball to center fielder Brandon Nimmo. Freddie Freeman scores. Matt Adams out at 3rd on the throw, center fielder Brandon Nimmo to third baseman Jeff McNeil.	Runner Out

AB #	Freddie Freeman on 07/26 @NYN, Inning 3	Scoring Event
12	Freddie Freeman walks. Ozzie Albies to 2nd.
13	Marcell Ozuna doubles (2) on a line drive to left fielder J. D. Davis. Ozzie Albies scores. Freddie Freeman to 3rd.
14	Matt Adams walks.
15	Dansby Swanson doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to left fielder J. D. Davis. Freddie Freeman scores. Marcell Ozuna scores. Matt Adams to 3rd.	Double

AB #	Freddie Freeman on 07/26 @NYN, Inning 4	Scoring Event
21	Freddie Freeman doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Brandon Nimmo.
22	Marcell Ozuna grounds out sharply, shortstop Amed Rosario to first baseman Pete Alonso.
23	Matt Adams flies out to left fielder J. D. Davis.
24	Dansby Swanson homers (1) on a line drive to right center field. Freddie Freeman scores.	Home Run

AB #	Freddie Freeman on 07/27 @TBA, Inning 6	Scoring Event
21	Freddie Freeman singles on a line drive to left fielder Yoshi Tsutsugo. Ronald Acuna scores. Ozzie Albies to 2nd.
22	Marcell Ozuna strikes out swinging.
23	Matt Adams homers (1) on a line drive to left field. Ozzie Albies scores. Freddie Freeman scores.	Home Run

AB #	Freddie Freeman on 07/31 vs. NYN, Inning 1	Scoring Event
3	Freddie Freeman singles on a line drive to right fielder Michael Conforto.
4	Marcell Ozuna singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Michael Conforto. Freddie Freeman to 2nd.
5	Matt Adams singles on a ground ball to left fielder J. D. Davis. Freddie Freeman scores. Marcell Ozuna to 3rd.	Single

AB #	Freddie Freeman on 07/31 vs. NYN, Inning 5	Scoring Event
21	Freddie Freeman reaches on a fielding error by left fielder J. D. Davis. Dansby Swanson to 2nd.
22	Marcell Ozuna pops out sharply to shortstop Amed Rosario in foul territory.
23	Matt Adams doubles (1) on a ground ball to right fielder Michael Conforto. Dansby Swanson scores. Freddie Freeman to 3rd.
24	Travis d’Arnaud singles on a line drive to right fielder Michael Conforto. Freddie Freeman scores. Matt Adams to 3rd.	Single

AB #	Freddie Freeman on 07/31 vs. NYN, Inning 8	Scoring Event
39	Umpire reviewed (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Freddie Freeman walks. Ender Inciarte scores. Dansby Swanson to 3rd. Wild pitch by pitcher Dellin Betances.
40	Marcell Ozuna walks. Freddie Freeman to 2nd.
41	Johan Camargo flies out to right fielder Michael Conforto.
42	Travis d’Arnaud doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Ryan Cordell. Dansby Swanson scores. Freddie Freeman scores. Marcell Ozuna scores.	Double

AB #	Freddie Freeman on 08/01 vs. NYN, Inning 1	Scoring Event
3	Freddie Freeman walks.
4	Marcell Ozuna homers (3) on a line drive to center field. Freddie Freeman scores.	Home Run

AB #	Freddie Freeman on 08/04 vs. TOR, Inning 5	Scoring Event
21	Freddie Freeman reaches on a fielder’s choice, fielded by shortstop Bo Bichette. Ronald Acuna scores.
22	Marcell Ozuna flies out to left fielder Anthony Alford.
23	Johan Camargo singles on a line drive to left fielder Anthony Alford. Freddie Freeman to 2nd.
24	Austin Riley homers (2) on a line drive to left field. Freddie Freeman scores. Johan Camargo scores.	Home Run

AB #	Freddie Freeman on 08/07 @PHI, Inning 5	Scoring Event
21	Freddie Freeman triples (1) on a line drive to right fielder Bryce Harper.
22	Marcell Ozuna strikes out swinging.
23	Travis d’Arnaud doubles (3) on a line drive to left fielder Andrew McCutchen. Freddie Freeman scores.	Double

AB #	Freddie Freeman on 08/07 @PHI, Inning 6	Scoring Event
30	Freddie Freeman doubles (5) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Roman Quinn. Dansby Swanson scores.
31	Marcell Ozuna singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Bryce Harper. Freddie Freeman scores.	Single

AB #	Freddie Freeman on 08/09 @PHI, Inning 5	Scoring Event
21	Freddie Freeman singles on a line drive to right fielder Bryce Harper. Dansby Swanson to 2nd.
22	Marcell Ozuna walks. Dansby Swanson to 3rd. Freddie Freeman to 2nd.
23	Adam Duvall doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Andrew McCutchen. Dansby Swanson scores. Freddie Freeman scores. Marcell Ozuna scores.	Double

AB #	Freddie Freeman on 08/11 @NYA, Inning 6	Scoring Event
21	Freddie Freeman singles on a ground ball to left fielder Brett Gardner. Travis d’Arnaud to 2nd.
22	Marcell Ozuna homers (4) on a line drive to left center field. Travis d’Arnaud scores. Freddie Freeman scores.	Home Run

AB #	Freddie Freeman on 08/16 @MIA, Inning 7	Scoring Event
29	Freddie Freeman walks. Ender Inciarte to 3rd. Dansby Swanson to 2nd.
30	Marcell Ozuna walks. Ender Inciarte scores. Dansby Swanson to 3rd. Freddie Freeman to 2nd.
31	Nick Markakis doubles (4) on a line drive to right fielder Jon Berti. Dansby Swanson scores. Freddie Freeman scores. Marcell Ozuna to 3rd.	Double

AB #	Freddie Freeman on 08/19 @ATL, Inning 1	Scoring Event
3	Freddie Freeman walks.
4	Marcell Ozuna doubles (9) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Josh Harrison. Freddie Freeman scores.	Double

AB #	Freddie Freeman on 08/21 vs. PHI, Inning 3	Scoring Event
11	Freddie Freeman singles on a line drive to center fielder Scott Kingery.
12	Travis d’Arnaud homers (4) on a fly ball to center field. Freddie Freeman scores.	Home Run

AB #	Freddie Freeman on 08/21 vs. PHI, Inning 5	Scoring Event
29	Freddie Freeman walks.
30	Travis d’Arnaud singles on a line drive to center fielder Scott Kingery. Dansby Swanson scores. Freddie Freeman to 3rd.
31	Marcell Ozuna homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field. Freddie Freeman scores. Travis d’Arnaud scores.	Home Run

AB #	Freddie Freeman on 08/22 vs. PHI, Inning 8	Scoring Event
29	Freddie Freeman walks. Dansby Swanson to 2nd.
30	Marcell Ozuna singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Bryce Harper. Dansby Swanson scores. Freddie Freeman to 3rd.
31	Adam Duvall flies out to left fielder Adam Haseley.
32	Matt Adams doubles (2) on a line drive to left fielder Adam Haseley. Freddie Freeman scores. Marcell Ozuna scores. Matt Adams to 3rd. Matt Adams advances to 3rd, on a throwing error by shortstop Didi Gregorius.	Error

AB #	Freddie Freeman on 08/23 vs. PHI, Inning 3	Scoring Event
11	Freddie Freeman doubles (8) on a fly ball to left fielder Andrew McCutchen. Ender Inciarte scores. Dansby Swanson scores.
12	Travis d’Arnaud grounds out, catcher Andrew Knapp to first baseman Rhys Hoskins. Freddie Freeman to 3rd.
13	Marcell Ozuna singles on a ground ball to left fielder Andrew McCutchen. Freddie Freeman scores.	Single

AB #	Freddie Freeman on 08/26 vs. NYA, Inning 6	Scoring Event
21	Freddie Freeman doubles (10) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Mike Tauchman.
22	Marcell Ozuna walks.
23	Nick Markakis doubles (7) on a line drive to left fielder Brett Gardner. Freddie Freeman scores. Marcell Ozuna to 3rd.	Double

AB #	Freddie Freeman on 08/28 @PHI, Inning 4	Scoring Event
12	Freddie Freeman doubles (11) on a fly ball to right fielder Bryce Harper.
13	Marcell Ozuna doubles (6) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Roman Quinn. Freddie Freeman scores.	Double

AB #	Freddie Freeman on 08/30 @PHI, Inning 2	Scoring Event
12	Freddie Freeman singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Phil Gosselin. Johan Camargo scores. Ronald Acuna scores. Dansby Swanson to 3rd. Freddie Freeman to 2nd. Fielding error by left fielder Phil Gosselin.
13	Marcell Ozuna singles on a ground ball to second baseman Scott Kingery. Dansby Swanson scores. Freddie Freeman to 3rd.
14	Travis d’Arnaud singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Bryce Harper. Freddie Freeman scores. Marcell Ozuna to 3rd.	Single

AB #	Freddie Freeman on 08/31 @BOS, Inning 5	Scoring Event
20	Freddie Freeman walks.
21	Marcell Ozuna doubles (7) on a fly ball to center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. Freddie Freeman to 3rd.
22	Nick Markakis walks.
23	Austin Riley triples (1) on a line drive to right fielder Alex Verdugo. Freddie Freeman scores. Marcell Ozuna scores. Nick Markakis scores.	Triple

AB #	Freddie Freeman on 09/01 @BOS, Inning 1	Scoring Event
2	Freddie Freeman hit by pitch.
3	Marcell Ozuna homers (9) on a fly ball to left field. Freddie Freeman scores.	Home Run

AB #	Freddie Freeman on 09/01 @BOS, Inning 8	Scoring Event
38	Freddie Freeman singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. Ender Inciarte scores. Dansby Swanson to 3rd.
39	Marcell Ozuna homers (11) on a fly ball to center field. Dansby Swanson scores. Freddie Freeman scores.	Home Run

AB #	Freddie Freeman on 09/06 @ATL, Inning 7	Scoring Event
39	Freddie Freeman walks. Ronald Acuna to 3rd. Dansby Swanson to 2nd.
40	Marcell Ozuna doubles (10) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Victor Robles, deflected by right fielder Adam Eaton. Ronald Acuna scores. Dansby Swanson scores. Freddie Freeman scores.	Double

AB #	Freddie Freeman on 09/09 vs. MIA, Inning 2	Scoring Event
11	Freddie Freeman singles on a line drive to right fielder Monte Harrison. Adam Duvall scores. Ronald Acuna to 3rd.
12	Marcell Ozuna singles on a fly ball to left fielder Lewis Brinson. Ronald Acuna scores. Freddie Freeman to 3rd.
13	Travis d’Arnaud homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field. Freddie Freeman scores. Marcell Ozuna scores.	Home Run

AB #	Freddie Freeman on 09/11 @WAS, Inning 9	Scoring Event
47	Freddie Freeman walks. Ozzie Albies to 3rd. Ender Inciarte to 2nd.
48	Marcell Ozuna singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Michael A. Taylor. Ozzie Albies scores. Ender Inciarte scores. Freddie Freeman to 2nd.
49	Travis d’Arnaud singles on a line drive to right fielder Adam Eaton. Freddie Freeman scores. Marcell Ozuna to 3rd.	Single

AB #	Freddie Freeman on 09/13 @WAS, Inning 1	Scoring Event
2	Freddie Freeman doubles (16) on a line drive to center fielder Victor Robles.
3	Marcell Ozuna strikes out swinging.
4	Travis d’Arnaud doubles (6) on a line drive to center fielder Victor Robles. Freddie Freeman scores.	Double

AB #	Freddie Freeman on 09/13 @WAS, Inning 9	Scoring Event
38	Ryne Harper intentionally walks Freddie Freeman.
39	Marcell Ozuna singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Juan Soto. Ozzie Albies scores. Freddie Freeman to 3rd.
40	Travis d’Arnaud grounds into a force out, pitcher James Bourque to second baseman Josh Harrison. Freddie Freeman scores. Marcell Ozuna out at 2nd. Travis d’Arnaud to 1st.	Forceout

AB #	Freddie Freeman on 09/15 @BAL, Inning 9	Scoring Event
38	Freddie Freeman doubles (18) on a line drive to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Ronald Acuna scores. Freddie Freeman to 3rd.
39	Marcell Ozuna singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Austin Hays. Freddie Freeman scores.	Single

AB #	Freddie Freeman on 09/16 @BAL, Inning 6	Scoring Event
20	Freddie Freeman singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Ryan Mountcastle.
21	Marcell Ozuna grounds out, third baseman Hanser Alberto to first baseman Pat Valaika.
22	Travis d’Arnaud grounds out, shortstop Jose Iglesias to first baseman Pat Valaika. Freddie Freeman to 3rd.
23	Dansby Swanson grounds out sharply, second baseman Andrew Velazquez to first baseman Pat Valaika.	Balk

AB #	Freddie Freeman on 09/18 @NYN, Inning 2	Scoring Event
11	Freddie Freeman doubles (19) on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Michael Conforto. Nick Markakis scores. Ronald Acuna scores.
12	Marcell Ozuna homers (15) on a line drive to left field. Freddie Freeman scores.	Home Run

AB #	Freddie Freeman on 09/20 @NYN, Inning 8	Scoring Event
29	Freddie Freeman walks. Ronald Acuna to 2nd.
30	Marcell Ozuna grounds out, third baseman J. D. Davis to first baseman Dominic Smith. Ronald Acuna to 3rd. Freddie Freeman to 2nd.
31	Travis d’Arnaud doubles (7) on a line drive to right fielder Michael Conforto. Ronald Acuna scores. Freddie Freeman scores.	Double

AB #	Freddie Freeman on 09/22 vs. MIA, Inning 5	Scoring Event
20	Freddie Freeman singles on a line drive to right fielder Matt Joyce. Dansby Swanson to 3rd.
21	Marcell Ozuna doubles (13) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Matt Joyce. Dansby Swanson scores. Freddie Freeman scores.	Double

AB #	Freddie Freeman on 09/22 vs. MIA, Inning 8	Scoring Event
38	Freddie Freeman hits a ground-rule double (21) on a fly ball down the left-field line.
39	Marcell Ozuna homers (17) on a fly ball to center field. Freddie Freeman scores.	Home Run

AB #	Freddie Freeman on 09/23 vs. MIA, Inning 1	Scoring Event
2	Freddie Freeman doubles (22) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Lewis Brinson. Ronald Acuna scores.
3	Marcell Ozuna grounds out, shortstop Miguel Rojas to first baseman Jesus Aguilar.
4	Ozzie Albies singles on a ground ball to center fielder Starling Marte. Freddie Freeman scores.	Single

AB #	Freddie Freeman on 09/26 vs. BOS, Inning 8	Scoring Event
29	Freddie Freeman doubles (23) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr.
30	Marcell Ozuna grounds out, third baseman Rafael Devers to first baseman Bobby Dalbec.
31	Travis d’Arnaud singles on a sharp line drive to pitcher Phillips Valdez. Freddie Freeman scores. Travis d’Arnaud to 2nd. Throwing error by pitcher Phillips Valdez.	Error

For Juan Soto

AB #	Juan Soto on 08/01 @MIA, Inning 1	Scoring Event
2	Juan Soto singles on a line drive to left fielder Corey Dickerson. Trea Turner to 2nd.
3	Asdrubal Cabrera grounds out, shortstop Miguel Rojas to first baseman Garrett Cooper. Trea Turner to 3rd. Juan Soto to 2nd.
4	Kurt Suzuki out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Corey Dickerson. Trea Turner scores.
5	Josh Harrison singles on a ground ball to right fielder Lewis Brinson. Juan Soto scores.	Single

AB #	Juan Soto on 08/02 @MIA, Inning 1	Scoring Event
2	Juan Soto walks.
3	Asdrubal Cabrera reaches on a fielding error by second baseman Jon Berti. Juan Soto to 2nd.
4	Kurt Suzuki doubles (8) on a line drive to right fielder Lewis Brinson. Juan Soto scores. Asdrubal Cabrera scores.	Double

AB #	Juan Soto on 08/02 @MIA, Inning 4	Scoring Event
20	Juan Soto singles on a ground ball to second baseman Jon Berti, deflected by first baseman Garrett Cooper.
21	Asdrubal Cabrera doubles (8) on a line drive to right fielder Lewis Brinson. Juan Soto to 3rd.
22	Kurt Suzuki grounds out, third baseman Brian Anderson to first baseman Garrett Cooper.
23	Josh Harrison singles on a ground ball to center fielder Starling Marte. Juan Soto scores. Asdrubal Cabrera to 3rd.	Single

AB #	Juan Soto on 08/02 @MIA, Inning 5	Scoring Event
29	Juan Soto hits a ground-rule double (12) on a line drive to center field. Trea Turner to 3rd.
30	Asdrubal Cabrera homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field. Trea Turner scores. Juan Soto scores.	Home Run

AB #	Juan Soto on 08/10 @NYN, Inning 5	Scoring Event
22	Juan Soto hits a ground-rule double (3) on a line drive to right-center field. Trea Turner scores. Starlin Castro to 3rd.
23	Howie Kendrick singles on a line drive to left fielder Jeff McNeil. Starlin Castro scores. Juan Soto to 3rd.
24	Asdrubal Cabrera doubles (5) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Brandon Nimmo. Juan Soto scores. Howie Kendrick scores.	Double

AB #	Juan Soto on 08/10 @NYN, Inning 6	Scoring Event
31	Juan Soto singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Michael Conforto.
32	Howie Kendrick walks. Juan Soto to 2nd.
33	Asdrubal Cabrera walks. Juan Soto to 3rd. Howie Kendrick to 2nd.
34	Carter Kieboom pops out to shortstop Amed Rosario on the infield fly rule.
35	Yan Gomes walks. Juan Soto scores. Howie Kendrick to 3rd. Asdrubal Cabrera to 2nd.	Walk

AB #	Juan Soto on 08/14 @BAL, Inning 3	Scoring Event
13	Juan Soto grounds into a force out, first baseman Chris Davis to shortstop Jose Iglesias. Trea Turner scores. Asdrubal Cabrera out at 2nd. Juan Soto to 1st.
14	Howie Kendrick singles on a line drive to right fielder Anthony Santander. Juan Soto scores.	Single

AB #	Juan Soto on 08/14 @BAL, Inning 8	Scoring Event
40	Juan Soto singles on a fly ball to center fielder Austin Hays. Trea Turner scores. Adam Eaton to 3rd. Asdrubal Cabrera to 2nd.
41	Howie Kendrick out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Austin Hays. Adam Eaton scores.
42	Luis Garcia doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Anthony Santander. Asdrubal Cabrera scores. Juan Soto scores.	Double

AB #	Juan Soto on 08/16 @BAL, Inning 1	Scoring Event
2	Juan Soto singles on a ground ball to left fielder Dwight Smith. Trea Turner to 2nd.
3	Asdrubal Cabrera singles on a line drive to left fielder Dwight Smith. Trea Turner scores. Juan Soto to 2nd.
4	Kurt Suzuki singles on a pop up to first baseman Renato Nunez. Juan Soto to 3rd. Asdrubal Cabrera to 2nd.
5	Carter Kieboom out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Dwight Smith. Juan Soto scores.	Sac Fly

AB #	Juan Soto on 08/16 @BAL, Inning 5	Scoring Event
20	Juan Soto singles on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Dwight Smith. Trea Turner to 2nd.
21	Asdrubal Cabrera strikes out swinging. Trea Turner to 3rd. Juan Soto to 2nd. Wild pitch by pitcher Jorge Lopez.
22	Kurt Suzuki out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Trea Turner scores. Juan Soto to 3rd.
23	Carter Kieboom singles on a line drive to right fielder Anthony Santander. Juan Soto scores.	Single

AB #	Juan Soto on 08/16 @BAL, Inning 8	Scoring Event
38	Juan Soto walks.
39	Asdrubal Cabrera grounds out to first baseman Renato Nunez. Juan Soto to 2nd.
40	Kurt Suzuki reaches on a throwing error by third baseman Rio Ruiz. Juan Soto scores. Kurt Suzuki to 2nd.	Field Error

AB #	Juan Soto on 08/18 @ATL, Inning 5	Scoring Event
21	Juan Soto singles on a ground ball to left fielder Adam Duvall. Adam Eaton scores.
22	Asdrubal Cabrera singles on a line drive to center fielder Ender Inciarte. Juan Soto to 2nd.
23	Kurt Suzuki called out on strikes.
24	Luis Garcia singles on a fly ball to left fielder Adam Duvall. Juan Soto to 3rd. Asdrubal Cabrera to 2nd.
25	Yan Gomes singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Adam Duvall. Juan Soto scores. Asdrubal Cabrera to 3rd. Luis Garcia to 2nd.	Single

AB #	Juan Soto on 08/24 vs. MIA, Inning 7	Scoring Event
30	Juan Soto hits a ground-rule double (6) on a line drive to right field. Trea Turner scores.
31	Howie Kendrick walks.
32	Asdrubal Cabrera grounds out, first baseman Jesus Aguilar to pitcher James Hoyt. Juan Soto to 3rd. Howie Kendrick to 2nd.
33	Luis Garcia singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Jesus Sanchez. Juan Soto scores. Howie Kendrick to 3rd.	Single

AB #	Juan Soto on 08/29 @BOS, Inning 3	Scoring Event
11	Juan Soto singles on a ground ball to pitcher Chris Mazza. Trea Turner scores. Juan Soto to 2nd. Throwing error by pitcher Chris Mazza.
12	Howie Kendrick singles on a ground ball to right fielder Kevin Pillar. Juan Soto scores.	Single

AB #	Juan Soto on 09/08 vs. TBA, Inning 3	Scoring Event
13	Juan Soto singles on a ground ball to second baseman Brandon Lowe. Trea Turner to 3rd.
14	Kurt Suzuki hit by pitch. Juan Soto to 2nd.
15	Asdrubal Cabrera out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Trea Turner scores.
16	Josh Harrison singles on a line drive to right fielder Manuel Margot. Juan Soto scores. Kurt Suzuki to 2nd.	Single

AB #	Juan Soto on 09/10 @WAS, Inning 1	Scoring Event
4	Juan Soto doubles (8) on a ground ball to right fielder Nick Markakis. Trea Turner scores.
5	Asdrubal Cabrera triples (3) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Adam Duvall. Juan Soto scores.	Triple

AB #	Juan Soto on 09/10 @WAS, Inning 5	Scoring Event
22	Juan Soto walks.
23	Asdrubal Cabrera flies out to center fielder Ronald Acuna.
24	Josh Harrison singles on a line drive to left fielder Adam Duvall. Juan Soto to 3rd.
25	Yan Gomes out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Ronald Acuna. Juan Soto scores.	Sac Fly

AB #	Juan Soto on 09/11 @WAS, Inning 1	Scoring Event
3	Juan Soto doubles (9) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Nick Markakis. Adam Eaton scores. Trea Turner scores.
4	Eric Thames singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Nick Markakis. Juan Soto scores.	Single

AB #	Juan Soto on 09/11 @WAS, Inning 3	Scoring Event
12	Juan Soto singles on a line drive to left fielder Adam Duvall. Trea Turner scores.
13	Eric Thames strikes out swinging.
14	Brock Holt grounds out, second baseman Ozzie Albies to first baseman Freddie Freeman. Juan Soto to 3rd.
15	Yan Gomes singles on a line drive to center fielder Ronald Acuna. Juan Soto scores.	Single

AB #	Juan Soto on 09/13 @WAS, Inning 4	Scoring Event
12	Juan Soto doubles (10) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Ronald Acuna.
13	Asdrubal Cabrera lines out to right fielder Nick Markakis. Juan Soto to 3rd.
14	Kurt Suzuki reaches on a fielder’s choice, fielded by second baseman Ozzie Albies. Juan Soto scores.	Fielders Choice

AB #	Juan Soto on 09/15 @TBA, Inning 6	Scoring Event
21	Juan Soto doubles (11) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Kevin Kiermaier.
22	Asdrubal Cabrera grounds out, shortstop Willy Adames to first baseman Nate Lowe. Juan Soto to 3rd.
23	Kurt Suzuki grounds out, third baseman Mike Brosseau to first baseman Nate Lowe. Juan Soto scores.	Groundout

AB #	Juan Soto on 09/16 @TBA, Inning 6	Scoring Event
22	Juan Soto walks.
23	Asdrubal Cabrera homers (7) on a fly ball to right field. Juan Soto scores.	Home Run

AB #	Juan Soto on 09/21 vs. PHI, Inning 1	Scoring Event
3	Juan Soto walks.
4	Asdrubal Cabrera singles on a ground ball to center fielder Roman Quinn. Andrew Stevenson scores. Juan Soto to 2nd.
5	Brock Holt grounds into a force out, fielded by shortstop Didi Gregorius. Juan Soto to 3rd. Asdrubal Cabrera out at 2nd. Brock Holt to 1st.
6	Kurt Suzuki walks.	Error

AB #	Juan Soto on 09/22 vs. PHI, Inning 1	Scoring Event
3	Juan Soto reaches on a fielding error by left fielder Mickey Moniak. Juan Soto to 2nd.
4	Asdrubal Cabrera singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Bryce Harper. Juan Soto scores.	Single

AB #	Juan Soto on 09/22 vs. PHI, Inning 3	Scoring Event
12	Aaron Nola intentionally walks Juan Soto.
13	Asdrubal Cabrera reaches on a fielder’s choice out, pitcher Aaron Nola to catcher J. T. Realmuto. Trea Turner out at home. Juan Soto to 3rd.
14	Brock Holt doubles (5) on a ground ball to right fielder Bryce Harper, deflected by first baseman Jay Bruce. Juan Soto scores. Asdrubal Cabrera scores. Brock Holt to 3rd. Fielding error by right fielder Bryce Harper.	Error

>AB #	Juan Soto on 09/25 vs. NYN, Inning 3>	Scoring Event
12	Juan Soto walks
13	Yadiel Hernandez doubles (3) on a line drive to right fielder Brandon Nimmo. Juan Soto scores.	Double

Steve: You’re amazing. This level of detail is so great to analyze how every run was scored. This is a ton of detail within those at-bats. I think my favorite was that 9/22 game against the Phillies.

Don: I’ll gladly take credit for generating the logic to create the report. But MLB takes credit for providing that rich set of data.

To wrap-up, this Point-CounterPoint took a different direction than I expected. Your suggestion to look at when/how they scored ignoring HRs was pretty insightful.

I am more optimistic now than I was before we started this discussion that Rizzo can do something to improve the team. I still question the value of protection for Soto, but imagine what could happen if the guys who get on-base more often than the guys who followed him this year.

I still want to look at slash line for players who batted before Soto vs. when they did not bat before him – reversing the issue of protection – is Juan protecting others? Likewise what are Freeman and Soto’s slash lines based on who followed him. Of course, the the RISP issue, as you mentioned, is important. Need to look at men on-base and number of outs.

And perhaps the TalkNats commenters can suggest some things to look at.

And that is why the title says this of 1 of ???.

Steve: This was so informative and eye opening with all the work you did Don. I’m sure the Nats “Pentagon” has done similar analysis internally for Mike Rizzo. Could the scoring number have been better for Soto? Of course, but they are much better than I would have imagined in comparison to Freeman who had Ozuna behind him consistently. Freeman won the league MVP and Ozuna was not far behind him in MVP votes himself. Both players had monster years. So did Soto obviously. Sure, we want a good bat behind Soto, but it is probably more important that it is a high batting average player who can knock in runs.

Statistically, DJ LeMahieu who can play 3rd, 2nd or 1st base is the guy I think fits in D.C. the best. Have him bat after Trea and Soto in that three-hole then Rizzo has choices for the cleanup spot for that big lefty thumper. Maybe it is Carlos Santana, but I still like Kyle Schwarber with a first baseman’s glove as the lefty which would allow the Nats to re-sign Ryan Zimmerman, Asdrubal Cabrera or Howie Kendrick.

Don: Thanks. I would be shocked if the Nats “Pentagon” hasn’t made a similar point to Rizzo. I’m looking forward to continuing the Protection discussion; as well as a host of other points. As you said, we are both learning things thru this process and hopefully the TalkNats community is as well (and enjoying these posts).