Based on FanGraphs original projections, how did each #Nats player do in the +/- ?

Photo courtesy of Andrew Lang for TalkNats

It was a good request from stever20 to produce a chart of FanGraphs pre-season WAR vs. the actual numbers for the Washington Nationals players. Some of the numbers are what you probably expected while some were very disappointing. All in all, the Nats were over -9.0 WAR below the original estimate.

Much of the shortfall in WAR was from injuries and time missed, and some of it was from poor showings by the player. This is certainly open for analysis.

Name

Pos

PA

IP

Total WAR (Actual)

Total WAR (Projected)

     +/-

Trea Turner SS 259 2.708 1.40 1.31
Juan Soto LF/RF 196 2.429 1.90 0.53
Max Scherzer P 67.1 1.843 2.00 -0.16
Patrick Corbin P 65.2 1.202 1.50 -0.30
Andrew Stevenson RF/LF/CF 47 0.826 0.00 0.83
Wander Suero P 23.2 0.521 0.10 0.42
Kyle Finnegan P 24.2 0.338 0.00 0.34
Tanner Rainey P 20.1 0.263 0.10 0.16
Josh Harrison 2B/3B/OF 91 0.246 NA 0.25
Yan Gomes C 119 0.243 0.40 -0.16
Anibal Sanchez P 53 0.199 0.40 -0.20
Ben Braymer P 7.1 0.172 0.00 0.17
Kyle McGowin P 11 0.115 0.00 0.12
Will Harris P 17.2 0.090 0.50 -0.41
Paolo Espino P 6 0.081 0.00 0.08
Brock Holt LF/IF/P 70 0.122 NA 0.12
Javy Guerra P 15.2 0.051 0.00 0.05
Stephen Strasburg P 5 0.047 1.90 -1.85
Sam Freeman P 5 0.007 0.00 0.01
Kurt Suzuki C 129 0.005 0.20 -0.19
Starlin Castro 2B 63 0.001 0.50 -0.50
Jake Noll 1B 17 -0.003 -0.10 0.10
Ryne Harper P 23.2 -0.012 0.00 -0.01
Aaron Barrett P 1.2 -0.024 0.00 -0.02
Asdrubal Cabrera 1B/3B 213 -0.043 0.30 -0.34
Dakota Bacus P 11.1 -0.049 0.00 -0.05
Seth Romero P 2.2 -0.091 0.00 -0.09
Emilio Bonifacio LF 3 -0.117 0.00 -0.12
Wilmer Difo 2B/SS 18 -0.145 0.00 -0.14
Yadiel Hernandez DH/OF 28 -0.146 0.00 -0.15
James Bourque P 4 -0.154 0.00 -0.15
Austin Voth P 49.2 -0.197 0.50 -0.70
Sean Doolittle P 7.2 -0.247 0.30 -0.55
Carter Kieboom 3B 122 -0.256 0.70 -0.96
Erick Fedde P 50.1 -0.264 0.30 -0.56
Howie Kendrick DH 100 -0.330 0.40 -0.73
Michael A. Taylor RF/CF/LF 99 -0.332 0.00 -0.33
Daniel Hudson P 20.2 -0.392 0.20 -0.59
Luis Garcia 2B/SS 139 -0.411 0.00 -0.41
Wil Crowe P 8.1 -0.462 0.00 -0.46
Adam Eaton RF 176 -0.467 0.80 -1.27
Victor Robles CF 189 -0.486 0.90 -1.39
Eric Thames 1B/DH 140 -0.688 0.30 -0.99
   TOTALS 6.195 15.50 -9.31

The Nationals were projected to be at 33-27 and finish at first place in the NL East. If you take the 33 wins and subtract a -9.31 WAR then maybe the team over-achieved at 26 actual wins. While WAR won’t exactly equate to wins and losses, FanGraphs uses run differential because that is how you win games by outscoring your opponent.

So where did the Nats finish in runs scored? 293 ÷ 60 = 4.93 Runs allowed? 301 ÷ 60 = 5.02 And run differential? -8 That run differential would have put the Nats at a 29-31 record. With the Nats going 7-9 in one-run games, that could be the difference along with a little bad luck. Also, the Nats had several blowouts which certainly will skew the run differential.

Fangraphs chart

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