Diving into the player pool

While we still don’t know whether the coronavirus will cooperate and a 2020 season will indeed be played, at least we have some baseball activities going on now with the goal of playing ball in July and beyond.

On Sunday, the Washington Nationals published the names of the 60 players who will constitute their “player pool” for the year.

So what is a player pool? It’s the list of players who are eligible to work out at team facilities, participate in 2020 exhibition and regular-season games, or be traded before the August 31 trade deadline. It doesn’t take the place of the 40-man roster, with non-roster players in the 60-man player pool effectively constituting “minor league depth” with minor league baseball not being played.

According to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand:

Teams will be able to make all the standard transactions throughout the course of the year, so in order to add a player to the Player Pool, another player must be removed.

Players on a 40-man roster can be removed via trade, waiver claims, return of Rule 5 Draft selection, release, outright assignment, designation for assignment, placement on the 45-day injured list, placement on the COVID-19 related injured list, or placement on the suspended list (by the club), voluntarily retired, restricted, disqualified or ineligible lists.

Non-40-man-roster players may be removed by trade, release, placement on the COVID-19 related injured list, or placement on the suspended list (by the club), military, voluntarily retired, restricted, disqualified or ineligible lists. Any injured non-40-man-roster players will continue to count against the team’s Player Pool unless they are removed through one of the aforementioned transactions.

Let’s get into the names.

Pitchers (36)

LHP Fernando Abad (NR)
RHP Joan Adon (NR)
RHP Dakota Bacus (NR)
RHP Aaron Barrett
RHP James Bourque
LHP Ben Braymer
LHP Tim Cate (NR)
LHP Patrick Corbin
LHP Matt Cronin (NR)
RHP Wil Crowe (NR)
LHP Sean Doolittle
LHP Roenis Elias
RHP Tyler Eppler (NR)
RHP Paolo Espino (NR)
RHP Erick Fedde
RHP Kyle Finnegan
LHP Sam Freeman (NR)
RHP Steven Fuentes (NR)
RHP Javy Guerra (NR)
RHP Ryne Harper
RHP Will Harris
RHP Daniel Hudson
RHP Jake Irvin (NR)
RHP Kyle McGowin
RHP Kevin Quackenbush (NR)
RHP Tanner Rainey
LHP Seth Romero (NR)
RHP Joe Ross
RHP Jackson Rutledge (NR)
RHP Anibal Sanchez
RHP Max Scherzer
RHP Stephen Strasburg
RHP Wander Suero
RHP Austin Voth
LHP Nick Wells (NR)
RHP Austen Williams

Catchers (6)

C Tres Barrera
C Welington Castillo (NR)
C Yan Gomes
C Raudy Read
C Jakson Reetz (NR)
C Kurt Suzuki

Position players (18)

INF/OF Emilio Bonifacio (NR)
INF Asdrubal Cabrera
2B Starlin Castro
INF Wilmer Difo
RF Adam Eaton
INF Luis Garcia (NR)
OF Yadiel Hernandez (NR)
1B/2B Howie Kendrick
3B Carter Kieboom
INF/OF Jake Noll
CF Victor Robles
INF/OF Brandon Snyder (NR)
LF Juan Soto
OF Andrew Stevenson
OF Michael A. Taylor
1B/OF Eric Thames
SS Trea Turner
1B Ryan Zimmerman

A 61st player, infielder Adrian Sanchez, has been placed on the 45-day injured list with a torn right Achilles tendon. Adrian Sanchez is the only player on the 40-man roster who won’t be in the player pool, and his placement on the 45-day IL clears a spot on that 40-man roster.

With Adrian Sanchez going to the 45-day IL and reliever Hunter Strickland being released in March just before spring training 1.0 was shut down, that leaves the Nats with 38 players on the 40-man roster. That opens the door for at least a couple of the current 22 non-roster players to be called up for the season, either to start or later on as needed.

Let’s break down those 22 non-roster players. Roughly speaking, they can be divided into three categories.

Journeyman veterans (9)

The unkind description for this group of players would be Quadruple-A.

These are mostly the players the Nats brought in to compete for roster spots in spring training 1.0. Their names should be familiar from this February 2020 article on spring NRIs.

This category includes:

LHP Fernando Abad
INF/OF Emilio Bonifacio
C Welington Castillo
RHP Tyler Eppler
RHP Paolo Espino
LHP Sam Freeman
RHP Javy Guerra
RHP Kevin Quackenbush
INF/OF Brandon Snyder

All except Eppler were invited to spring training 1.0 as non-roster players. One (Guerra) spent most of last season with the Nats and has a new World Series ring to show for it. Two (Espino and Snyder) spent last season with the Nats’ Triple-A affiliate, the Fresno Grizzlies, and were brought back on minor league deals with invitations to spring training this year.

Abad, Freeman, Guerra, and Quackenbush all pitched well in the Grapefruit League, although none looked like a clear frontrunner to make the 26-man roster.

Bonifacio probably made the biggest impression in the Grapefruit League. Not only did he play for the Nats as a young prospect in 2008, he also spent the first years of his career with the Arizona Diamondbacks before a scout and later member of Arizona’s front office named Mike Rizzo became general manager in Washington. Entering with that leg up on the competition, Bonifacio performed competently at multiple positions and hit well; never a power hitter in his career with only 44 home runs across all professional levels, he showed some pop with a no-doubt homer in Grapefruit League play.

Snyder is a known quantity for the Nats who has rotated in and out of the minor league system, although he’s never suited up for Washington in a game that counts. This spring marked his third with an invitation to spring training for the Nats, so if you want to look at it that way, this will be his fourth camp as he tries to finally make it in D.C.

It’s not a surprise to see Bonifacio and Snyder on this list, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them get into some games if and when there is a season. Both have fantastic positional versatility; as a professional, Bonifacio has logged innings at six positions (all but first base, catcher, and pitcher), while Snyder has played all nine (eight of them, all but center field, as recently as last season). They’re the archetypes of “taxi squad” players, heading into a season in which teams will be expected to travel with up to three backups who could slot into the roster on short notice.

Castillo could also be a staple on that “taxi squad.” While he doesn’t have a spot on the 40-man roster, and with four catchers already on the 40-man, he’s not likely to be added unless there is an acute need, he has plenty of major league experience as a catcher and has hit well enough — lackluster 2019 season aside — that he could even be used as a designated hitter. He’s useful depth.

Eppler and Espino don’t figure as much beyond depth, either. Espino has a bit of major league experience that came in between two separate stints in the Nats farm system. Eppler is the only player of this nine who doesn’t have major league experience, in fact, although he owns the distinction of being one of the few players the Nats have ever signed out of Japan (he was with the Orix Buffaloes last year after several seasons in the Pittsburgh Pirates organization). Both are roughly average Triple-A starting pitchers with low strikeout rates.

If the Nats need to use Eppler or Espino for a spot start, it’s not the end of the world, but if they get to the point where they’re rotation staples, it’s probably safe to say this season is going very poorly. Don’t expect them to seriously contend for 40-man roster spots unless there are a lot of injuries or positive coronavirus tests.

Near-majors prospects (8)

This isn’t as rigid a category as the previous one, and it includes a couple of players who have little to no experience above A-ball but are considered advanced enough that they could move quickly in a relief role. Quickly enough to actually get into a major league game in 2020? Maybe, although it depends on how the season progresses.

It also includes a couple of players who are too old to be considered “prospects” in the conventional sense, but they’ve never played in a major league game (or in Japan) and have spent most of their careers in affiliated ball with the Nats.

This category includes:

RHP Dakota Bacus
LHP Matt Cronin
RHP Wil Crowe
RHP Steven Fuentes
INF Luis Garcia
OF Yadiel Hernandez
C Jakson Reetz
LHP Seth Romero

Only half of the players on the list fit solidly into the category: Crowe, Fuentes, Garcia, and Reetz, who played last year at Double-A or Triple-A (edit: or in the Arizona Fall League), are considered notable by prospect evaluators, and look like they’re ready or close to ready to fill a major league role.

Prior to the June 10-11 draft, Crowe ranked as the Nats’ fourth-best prospect on MLB.com, and before the season was postponed, he was widely seen as likely to make his major league debut this season, although he wasn’t considered a candidate to break camp with the Nats. Expect the Nats to stretch him out in camp and keep him on a starter’s routine in case there are multiple injuries or positive tests affecting the six major league starters (Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, Anibal Sanchez, Joe Ross, and Austin Voth). He’s probably still behind Erick Fedde, Kyle McGowin, and perhaps Ben Braymer on the depth chart, but he’s in the mix.

A breakout season for Fuentes last year at Double-A was cut short by a heptaminol suspension after the big right-hander tested positive for the stimulant. (For what it’s worth, Fuentes strenuously denied ingesting the stimulant knowingly.) Prior to the draft, he was the Nats’ 24th-best prospect, according to MLB.com. Fuentes still has a few games left on his suspension, and it’s not clear yet how that will be handled with no minor league games to play, but if there is a workaround for that, Fuentes could contribute either as a depth starter or (more likely) out of the bullpen with his heavy sinker.

Garcia put on a lightshow in Grapefruit League action and was hitting .417/1.003 when spring training 1.0 was shut down. While he was still considered a long shot for the Opening Day roster, he was certainly opening some eyes, and with rosters expanding to 30 players for the start of the season, he has an outside chance of making it. He would need to be placed on the 40-man roster, of course, but that’s only a matter of time now anyway. He’s universally considered the Nats’ No. 2 prospect.

Reetz checked in at No. 28 on the pre-draft organizational prospects list. Originally drafted out of high school, Reetz was a well-regarded catching prospect whose development stalled. He finally broke out with a strong 2019 season and an invitation to the Arizona Fall League, putting him back on the prospect map and just a step away from the major leagues. As with Crowe, he’s unlikely to make the Opening Day roster and has one or two guys ahead of him on the depth chart, but it’s not impossible to see him contributing this season.

The two prospects here who are considered more advanced than level are the Nats’ ninth- and tenth-ranked prospects on MLB.com.

Romero hasn’t thrown a pitch in anger since midway through the 2018 season, as he was shut down and underwent Tommy John surgery. His baseball career has been checkered at best, as he was kicked off his college team at the University of Houston for fighting with teammates and flouting team policy, drafted in the first round by the Nats in 2017 anyway, then booted out of spring training camp in 2018 for disobeying camp rules before tearing the UCL in his left elbow just weeks into the short season that summer. But when he has pitched, Romero has flashed some serious stuff, with a gaudy strikeout rate. He’s probably not major league-ready — he hasn’t even pitched in full-season ball yet — but the buzz around Romero has always been that he could move fast in a relief role, and at 24 and years behind on his development because of bad behavior and injuries, Romero might just be on that track now.

Cronin is one of two 2019 draft picks in the Nats’ player pool (more on the other guy in a bit), and he was widely considered at the time of the draft to be the most advanced prospect of the bunch. He went straight to Low-A Hagerstown after being drafted and proceeded to own South Atlantic League hitters, putting up a 0.82 ERA over 22 innings of work. While Cronin hasn’t pitched above that level, he also proved he was already well beyond it in terms of ability last year. That doesn’t mean he’s necessarily ready to face major league hitters, but with a limited number of left-handed relievers in the system, the Nats are being aggressive with his development, and it is possible we will see him in the major league bullpen at some point this year.

You won’t find Bacus and Hernandez on many (if any) prospect rankings, but yes, even though Bacus is 29 and Hernandez is 32, they are technically considered to have prospect status. There’s not a lot to say here; Bacus had a decent-to-good year as a reliever and sometime-closer at Triple-A Fresno last year, while Hernandez was one of the Pacific Coast League’s leading hitters, though certainly not in contention for a fielding award. Neither was all that impressive in spring training 1.0, and both figure as depth here, making them more simpatico with our Quadruple-A journeyman veterans, even though they’re not really journeymen and don’t have any top-level experience.

Aspiring youngsters (5)

This is the smallest group of non-roster players in the player pool, and they’re the players we are least likely to actually see this season, if there is a season.

The Nats almost certainly are inviting these prospects to work out and train with the big boys, either grooming them for future opportunities or laying them out on the trading block (or both), not to compete for a roster spot or even serve as injury reserves. They aren’t close to major league-ready and figure to need at least a full year’s worth of development, if not more, until they are.

This category includes:

RHP Joan Adon
LHP Tim Cate
RHP Jake Irvin
RHP Jackson Rutledge
LHP Nick Wells

The most recognizable names on this list are Cate, who was the Nats’ second-round draft pick in 2018, and rated as the team’s eighth-best prospect entering 2020, and Rutledge, who fell to the Nats in the first round in 2019 and is universally considered their third-best prospect when excluding this year’s draftees.

Of the prospects on this list, the 22-year-old Cate is likely the most advanced, but he still hasn’t pitched above High-A, and his results there were quite good but not otherworldly. Evaluators tend to think he has his best shot at a major league role as a left-handed relief pitcher, so it’s possible the Nats could group him together with Cronin and Romero as southpaws they hope can jump straight from A-ball to a major league bullpen role sometime this year. But Cate doesn’t have the loud stuff or gaudy stats of those two pitchers, and he seems less likely to be a 2020 contributor, or even a 2021 contributor, despite having more experience.

Rutledge, 21, has the highest ceiling of any Nats pitcher, likely including 2020 draftees Cade Cavalli and Cole Henry. At an imposing 6-foot-8, he will be an unmistakable figure in camp, but with just 37⅓ professional innings under his belt as a starter, he’s not a factor for this season. Rutledge is a vocal admirer of Max Scherzer (both grew up in St. Louis County, Missouri) and this will be a great opportunity for him to work with Scherzer and the rest of the major league outfit while furthering his development as a starting pitcher.

Less heralded than Rutledge, 23-year-old Jake Irvin is another tall right-hander, checking in at 6-foot-6, who ranked No. 21 among Nats prospects pre-draft. Irvin pitched pretty well last year at Low-A Hagerstown, although the Nats would probably like to see him strike out more batters and allow fewer home runs. Sixteenth-ranked Joan Adon also spent 2019 in the Hagerstown Suns’ rotation; the Nats will want fewer walks and more strikeouts out of the soon-to-be-22-year-old Adon.

Wells is kind of the odd man out on this list. He came over from the Seattle Mariners last year in the trade that sent Austin L. Adams to the Pacific Northwest. Now 24, he’s a native of Alexandria, Virginia, and a Battlefield High School grad, so he has great local ties to the D.C. area, but he is not considered among the best prospects in the organization. After he had some miserable results as a starter in the Mariners organization, the Nats moved Wells into the bullpen with better results at Low-A Hagerstown, although he didn’t pitch that much and command remains an issue for the 6-foot-5 lefty.

Conclusions

It’s incredibly difficult to forecast a 60-game season that’s still nearly a month away in the midst of a calamitous pandemic. Case counts are rising in many MLB states (although thankfully pretty stable in the D.C. area, at least for now), a schedule has yet to be finalized for the season as the league and teams await the results of the first round of coronavirus testing, and it’s still entirely possible that this plan is derailed and we don’t have baseball until 2021 at the soonest.

But for the purposes of analyzing baseball, we can stick to what we know:

1. The Nats chose to bring back most, although not all, of their non-roster invitees from spring training 1.0.
2. The Nats also chose to bring some less developed prospects to camp.
3. The Nats do have a handful of near-majors prospects, most of whom are in this player pool and could potentially make their major league debuts this season.
4. The Nats will be able to carry up to 30 players on the active roster for the first two weeks of the season, then 28 players for the next two weeks, then the standard 26 players for the rest of the season.
5. In addition to the active roster, the Nats will be able to bring up to three players, one of whom must be a catcher, as a non-roster “taxi squad” for roadtrips.

As it stands right now, the smart money would probably be on the Nats opening with six starters (although not necessarily a strict six-man rotation), about ten relievers, and a six-man bench five-man bench plus the DH. That 30-man roster could look something like:

RHP James Bourque
LHP Patrick Corbin
LHP Sean Doolittle
LHP Roenis Elias
RHP Kyle Finnegan
LHP Sam Freeman
RHP Ryne Harper
RHP Will Harris
RHP Daniel Hudson
RHP Tanner Rainey
RHP Joe Ross
RHP Anibal Sanchez
RHP Max Scherzer
RHP Stephen Strasburg
RHP Wander Suero
RHP Austin Voth

C Yan Gomes
C Kurt Suzuki

INF Asdrubal Cabrera
2B Starlin Castro
INF Wilmer Difo
RF Adam Eaton
1B/2B Howie Kendrick
3B Carter Kieboom
CF Victor Robles
LF Juan Soto
OF Michael A. Taylor
1B/OF Eric Thames
SS Trea Turner
1B Ryan Zimmerman

Plus, for road trips, a taxi squad of something like:

INF/OF Emilio Bonifacio
C Welington Castillo
RHP Kyle McGowin

Or:

C Tres Barrera
RHP Erick Fedde
INF/OF Brandon Snyder

Or:

LHP Ben Braymer
INF/OF Jake Noll
C Raudy Read

But all of this assumes good health and a season that proceeds as planned. There’s a long way to go from here to Opening Day…