The winds of winter: Next year’s #Nats could look very different from this year’s contender!

As we enter mid-September, with fewer than 20 games from here until the end of the regular season, the Washington Nationals’ fate in 2019 is theirs to write. Still clinging to pole position in the National League wild card race, the Nats nonetheless must overcome a tough schedule, a few untimely injuries, and a throng of teams chasing them.

But as we embark on the grueling final stretch, we should take a moment to appreciate the team that we have. A quick look at the roster shows how much it could change before Opening Day 2020.

Let’s break it down.

Unrestricted free agents

All players listed below will automatically become free agents following the 2019 World Series unless they agree to terms with the club on a new contract for the 2020 season.

2019 salaries listed in parentheses.

• 3B Anthony Rendon ($18.8M).
• 2B Brian Dozier ($9M).
• RP Fernando Rodney ($5.25M).
• 1B/2B/3B Howie Kendrick ($4M).
• 1B/2B/3B Asdrubal Cabrera ($3.5M).
• RP Jonny Venters ($2.25M).
• SP Jeremy Hellickson ($1.9M).
• OF/1B Gerardo Parra ($1.75M).
• RP Daniel Hudson ($1.5M).

Optional free agents

All players listed below could become unrestricted free agents either if they exercise their contractual right to become a free agent or if the club declines to exercise their contractual right to retain them for the 2020 season, depending on the terms of their contract.

2019 salaries listed in parentheses. Contract status listed in italics.

• SP Stephen Strasburg ($38.33M). Player opt-out to forgo $100M over 4 years.
• 1B Ryan Zimmerman ($18M). Club option for $18M over 1 year ($2M buyout).
• OF Adam Eaton ($8.4M). Club option for $9.5M over 1 year ($1.5M buyout).
• C Yan Gomes ($7.08M). Club option for $9M over 1 year ($1M buyout).
• RP Sean Doolittle ($6M). Club option for $6.5M over 1 year ($500k buyout).
• 1B Matt Adams ($3M). Mutual option for $4M over 1 year ($1M buyout).

Multi-year continuing contracts

All players listed below have signed major league contracts that include a guaranteed salary for the 2020 season or beyond. Does not include players who are owed a buyout if the club declines their option for the 2020 season.

2019 salaries listed in parentheses. Contract status listed in italics.

• SP Stephen Strasburg ($38.33M). Owed $100M over 4 years. Free agent after the 2023 season. Player opt-out after the 2019 season.
• SP Max Scherzer ($37.5M). Owed $70.42M over 2 years. Free agent after the 2021 season.
• SP Patrick Corbin ($12.92M). Owed $127.08M over 5 years. Free agent after the 2024 season.
• SP Anibal Sanchez ($8M). Owed $11M over 1 year. Free agent after the 2020 season. Club option for the 2021 season.
• C Kurt Suzuki ($4M). Owed $6M over 1 year. Free agent after the 2020 season.

Arbitration-eligible

All players listed below are eligible for arbitration, meaning they have the right to negotiate the value of a one-year contract with the club or otherwise demand that an independent panel of arbiters choose between a contract offered by the club and a contract offered by the player. The club may choose not to tender a new contract to any player listed below, causing them to become an unrestricted free agent.

2019 salaries listed in parentheses. Contract status listed in italics.

• SS Trea Turner ($3.725M). Arbitration-eligible for the second time. Free agent after the 2022 season.
• OF Michael A. Taylor ($3.25M). Arbitration-eligible for the third time. Free agent after the 2020 season.
• RP Hunter Strickland ($1.3M). Arbitration-eligible for the third time. Free agent after the 2021 season.
• SP/RP Joe Ross ($1M). Arbitration-eligible for the second time. Free agent after the 2021 season.
• RP Roenis Elias ($910k). Arbitration-eligible for the second time. Free agent after the 2021 season.
• RP Javy Guerra ($800k). Arbitration-eligible for the second time. Free agent after the 2021 season.
• 2B/3B/SS Wilmer Difo ($581k). Arbitration-eligible for the first time. Free agent after the 2022 season.
• RP Koda Glover ($564k). Arbitration-eligible for the first time. Free agent after the 2022 season.
• RP Aaron Barrett ($555k). Arbitration-eligible for the first time. Free agent after the 2023 season.

Team control (non-arbitration)

All players listed below are making the major league minimum (or slightly above) and are not eligible for arbitration. Does not include players not presently on either the 40-man roster or the 60-day injured list.

Current level as of Sept. 10 in parentheses. Prospect status (if applicable) in italics.

• OF Juan Soto (MLB).
• OF Victor Robles (MLB).
• OF Andrew Stevenson (MLB).
• 1B/2B/3B Jake Noll (AAA).
• 2B/3B/SS Adrian Sanchez (MLB).
• 2B/3B/SS Carter Kieboom (AAA). #1 organizational prospect, #20 overall prospect (MLB Pipeline); #1 organizational prospect, #15 overall prospect (Baseball America).
• C Spencer Kieboom (MLB, 60-day IL).
• C Raudy Read (MLB).
• C Tres Barrera (MLB). #18 organizational prospect (MLB Pipeline); #10 organizational prospect (Baseball America).
• SP/RP Erick Fedde (MLB).
• SP/RP Austin Voth (MLB).
• SP/RP Kyle McGowin (AA).
• RP Wander Suero (MLB).
• RP Tanner Rainey (MLB).
• RP Austen Williams (MLB, 60-day IL).
• RP James Bourque (AAA). #23 organizational prospect (MLB Pipeline); #20 organizational prospect (Baseball America).

Out of minor league options

All players listed below will have accrued fewer than five years of major league service time by the end of the 2019 season but are ineligible to be assigned to the minor leagues without passing through outright waivers, excluding a temporary rehab assignment. Does not include veterans with more than five years of major league service time, giving them the right to refuse assignment to the minor leagues.

2019 salaries listed in parentheses. 2019 games per level as of Sept. 10 listed in italics.

• OF Michael A. Taylor ($3.25M). 47 games for Washington. 57 games for Harrisburg (AA).
• RP Hunter Strickland ($1.3M). 4 games for Seattle. 15 games for Washington. 3 games for Tacoma (AAA).
• SP/RP Joe Ross ($1M). 25 games for Washington. 8 games for Fresno (AAA).
• RP Roenis Elias ($910k). 44 games for Seattle. 4 games for Washington.
• RP Javy Guerra ($800k). 11 games for Toronto. 32 games for Washington. 5 games for Buffalo (AAA).
• 2B/3B/SS Wilmer Difo ($581k). 40 games for Washington. 61 games for Fresno (AAA). 6 games for Gulf Coast League (rookie).
• 2B/3B/SS Adrian Sanchez ($560k). 27 games for Washington. 69 games for Harrisburg (AA).
• SP/RP Austin Voth ($556k). 6 games for Washington. 12 games for Fresno (AAA). 3 games for Harrisburg (AA). 1 game for Gulf Coast League (rookie).
• C Raudy Read ($556k). 3 games for Washington. 82 games for Fresno (AAA).
• SP/RP Erick Fedde ($555k). 18 games for Washington. 2 games for Fresno (AAA). 5 games for Harrisburg (AA).

That’s the major league roster. Let’s take a look at the minor league system:

Minor league free agents

All players listed below are presumed to automatically become free agents following the 2019 World Series unless they are promoted to the 40-man roster or agree to terms with the club on a new minor league contract. Additionally, they are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft in December if they are signed to a minor league contract at the time. An important caveat: Minor league signings and details of minor league contracts frequently go unreported, and it’s possible that one or more of these players has already signed or is expected to sign a new minor league contract before being declared a free agent, or even previously signed a minor league contract that includes the 2020 season.

Current level as of Sept. 10 listed in parentheses.

• OF Rafael Bautista (AA).
• OF Collin Cowgill (AAA).
• OF Chuck Taylor (AAA).
• OF Hunter Jones (AA).
• OF/1B Jose Marmolejos (AAA).
• OF/1B Aldrem Corredor (AA).
• INF Drew Ward (AAA).
• INF David Masters (AA).
• INF Osvaldo Abreu (A+).
• INF T.J. Rivera (AA).
• INF Bengie Gonzalez (AAA).
• INF Luis Sardinas (AAA).
• INF/OF Dante Bichette Jr. (AA).
• INF/OF Matt Reynolds (AAA).
• INF/OF/RP Brandon Snyder (AAA).
• C Jake Lowery (AA).
• SP Mario Sanchez (AA).
• SP Paolo Espino (AAA).
• SP Scott Copeland (AAA).
• SP/RP Luis Reyes (A+).
• SP/RP Eduardo Vera (A+).
• SP/RP Kevin McGowan (A+).
• SP/RP J.J. Hoover (AAA).
• SP/RP Logan Ondrusek (AAA).
• SP/RP Michael Blazek (AAA).
• RP Matt Grace (AAA).
• RP Justin Miller (AAA).
• RP Greg Holland (AA).
• RP Sam Freeman (AAA).
• RP Josh Lucas (AAA).
• RP Jake Buchanan (AAA).
• RP Derek Self (AAA).
• RP Bryan Bonnell (AA).
• RP Dakota Bacus (AAA).
• RP Ronald Pena (AAA).

Rule 5 draft-eligible

All players listed below are under club control for the 2020 season but are eligible to be promoted directly to the active major league roster of another club via the Rule 5 draft in December, unless they are promoted to the 40-man roster beforehand to protect them from selection. Does not include players listed above as pending minor league free agents.

Current level as of Sept. 10 listed in parentheses. Prospect status (if applicable) in italics.

• OF Alec Keller (AAA).
• OF Rhett Wiseman (AA).
• OF Nick Banks (AA).
• OF Telmito Agustin (A+). #27 organizational prospect (MLB Pipeline); #25 organizational prospect (Baseball America).
• OF Armond Upshaw (A).
• INF Ian Sagdal (AA).
• INF Gilbert Lara (A+). #25 organizational prospect (MLB Pipeline).
• INF Omar Meregildo (A+).
• INF/OF Austin Davidson (A+).
• C Taylor Gushue (AAA).
• C Matt Reistetter (AAA).
• C Jakson Reetz (AA).
• SP Ben Braymer (AAA). #15 organizational prospect (MLB Pipeline); #8 organizational prospect (Baseball America).
• SP Sterling Sharp (AA). #13 organizational prospect (MLB Pipeline); #12 organizational prospect (Baseball America).
• SP Steven Fuentes (AA). #21 organizational prospect (MLB Pipeline).
• SP Malvin Pena (A+).
• SP Francys Peguero (A+). #29 organizational prospect (Baseball America).
• SP/RP Andrew Lee (AA).
• SP/RP Tyler Mapes (AA).
• SP/RP Tomas Alastre (A).
• SP/RP Nick Wells (A).
• RP Joan Baez (AAA).
• RP Jordan Mills (AA).
• RP Andrew Istler (AA).
• RP Jhonatan German (AA).
• RP Angel Guillen (A+).
• RP Hayden Howard (A+).
• RP Jhon Romero (A+).
• RP Jorge Pantoja (A+).

Conclusion

There you have it. The winds of winter will blow through the Nats organization, as it will every other, and strip some of the leaves off our family tree. A few things are worth noting here:

• Zimmerman is extremely unlikely to have his $18M club option picked up due to his advancing age, declining production and health issues. However, he has expressed interest in negotiating a new deal with the Nats for less money. It’s unclear whether that interest is reciprocated by the Nats front office or ownership.
• Rendon has been in off-and-on contract negotiations with the Nats since spring training, but his most recent public statements on the matter suggest he is leaning toward not signing an extension and becoming a free agent. That doesn’t preclude him from re-signing with the Nats, but it indicates he will at least test the market.
• Strasburg has been coy in his public statements this year about whether he will opt out of his contract at the end of the season. A recent report by MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi cited “increasing speculation in the industry” that Strasburg will opt out, but it’s unclear how credible those rumors are.
• Anibal Sanchez has a base salary of $9M for the 2020 season, but the Nats hold a $12M club option on him for the 2021 season, which has a $2M buyout. In 2021, Sanchez will be in his age-37 season, making it seem unlikely the Nats will exercise that option, but that’s a conversation to be had this time next year.
• Strickland, Elias, and Guerra are out of minor league options this season, whereas the rest of the list of players who will be out of options next year had their last remaining minor league option burned this season. Strickland played for Triple-A Tacoma on a rehab assignment this year, and Guerra played for Triple-A Buffalo after being outrighted off Toronto’s 40-man roster (he was later re-selected).
• Mario Sanchez returned to the Nats organization after being traded to Philadelphia in 2016 (for Jimmy Cordero) and becoming a minor league free agent last year, and he ended up having a standout year for Double-A Harrisburg at age 24. He is eligible for free agency again this year, but he could be an uncommon example of a player who is promoted to the 40-man roster right after the World Series not just to protect him from the Rule 5 draft, but to prevent him from becoming a minor league free agent. (The last such promotion by the Nats was Suero in 2017.)
• Barrera would have been eligible for the Rule 5 draft, but the Nats promoted him to the major leagues last week. Also, because Barrera and Barrett were not on the 40-man roster prior to being promoted to the major leagues this month, they are not considered to have lost a minor league option year, unlike all other roster players who spent at least 20 days in the minor leagues this season — with the exception of Williams, who was called up in April prior to the 20-day mark, was placed on the major league injured list after two games with Washington, and then returned to the minor leagues on a rehab assignment, which doesn’t count as using a minor league option.
• Sharp, Fuentes, and Braymer, as relatively high-ranking (within the organization) pitching prospects who have experience in the high minors, appear to be the serious remaining candidates to be protected ahead of the Rule 5 draft. However, it’s worth noting that the vast majority of players eligible for the Rule 5 draft will neither be protected nor selected in the draft. The Nats have not lost a player in the major league part of the Rule 5 draft since 2013, when they lost Adrian Nieto. They have not selected a player in the major league part of the Rule 5 draft themselves since 2010, when they took Brian Broderick and Elvin Ramirez.
• Bourque was the sole minor league player the Nats promoted to the 40-man roster ahead of the Rule 5 draft last offseason. In 2017, they promoted Suero before he became eligible for free agency, then added Kelvin Gutierrez and Jefry Rodriguez later so they would not be exposed in the Rule 5 draft.

(Credit for most player salary figures to Spotrac. Credit for tracking minor league option and Rule 5 eligibility status to RosterResource. Credit for breaking down the rules around minor league free agency to The Cub Reporter.)