Clint Robinson
Magic Number is 25
Time to update our post from last week, 39 Games Left and Counting Down to the #Nats in the Post-Season.
The Nationals have 32 games left and their Magic Number to win the division is 25 after today’s games; thanks to the Marlins and the Mets both losing.
The Nats have lost ground to the Cubs for the best record and home field in the NLCS – it is time to just acknowledge that the only likely chance to have home field in the NLCS is if the Cubs lose to the WC team. Perhaps a reason to root for the Cardinals to get to and win the WC?????
But they still have a comfortable lead for the NL East. After last Sunday’s games they had an 8.5 game lead over the Marlins; and after today’s games, they have an 8 game lead over the Marlins. However, the Mets are closing in on the Marlins for second place in the East and perhaps a WC berth.
With respect to the race to have home field advantage for the NLDS, the Dodgers are closing in on the Nats. Last week our projections had the Nats at 94 wins, and the Dodgers at 88 and the Giants at 87. This week the numbers are getting perhaps too close for comfort: 92 for the Nats and 90 for the Dodgers; but still with a somewhat comfortable lead over the Giants who are projected at 87. Is it time to root for the Giants against the Dodgers? The Nats won the season series with the Giants and so they have the tie-breaker for home field should the teams tie; but they lost the season series to the Dodgers, so the Dodgers have that tie-breaker.
And not losing much ground in the race for the NL East and still having the advantage of home field in the NLDS is a very good thing – as each day’s games go by, not giving up to much ground to the teams chasing the Nats makes it that much harder on them.
The race for the Wild Card berths is tightening up. All the NL teams with a winning record so far are still in the race. Only 2.5 games separate the Cardinals who are the second WC and the Mets in the race for the last WC spot
So lets take a look at the remaining schedules for these teams.
| OPPONENT | PCT | WSH | MIA | NYM | SF | LAD | CHC | STL | PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | .420 | 4 | . | . | 5 | 7 | . | . | . |
| ATL | .366 | 6 | 7 | 6 | . | . | . | . | . |
| CHC | .636 | . | . | . | 4 | . | . | 6 | 7 |
| CIN | .426 | . | . | 3 | . | . | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| CLE | .566 | . | 3 | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| COL | .477 | . | . | . | 6 | 7 | . | 3 | . |
| HOU | .523 | . | . | . | . | . | 3 | . | . |
| LAD | .562 | . | 3 | . | 6 | . | . | . | . |
| MIA | .515 | 6 | . | 7 | . | 3 | . | . | . |
| MIL | .431 | . | . | . | . | . | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| MIN | .377 | . | . | 3 | . | . | . | . | . |
| NYM | .508 | 6 | 7 | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| NYY | .519 | . | . | . | . | 3 | . | . | . |
| PHL | .462 | 7 | 6 | 7 | . | . | . | . | 4 |
| PIT | .523 | 3 | . | . | . | . | 7 | 6 | . |
| SD | .423 | . | . | . | 7 | 6 | . | . | . |
| SF | .546 | . | . | . | . | 6 | 4 | 4 | . |
| STL | .527 | . | . | . | 4 | . | 6 | . | 6 |
| WSH | .577 | . | 6 | 6 | . | . | . | . | 3 |
Just as we did last week and the week before, lets collapse this table to show how many games each of these teams have left against teams that are above/below .500 so far this year.
| TEAM | Below .500 | Above .500 |
|---|---|---|
| CHC | 13 | 20 |
| LAD | 20 | 12 |
| MIA | 13 | 19 |
| NYM | 19 | 13 |
| PIT | 18 | 16 |
| SF | 18 | 14 |
| STL | 17 | 16 |
| WSH | 17 | 15 |
And just as we did before, lets calculate a weighted average of the winning percentage for the opponents of these teams and use that percentage to project the total number of wins by the end of the season. Clearly, lots of assumptions here. And since all of these teams are all above .500, this might be an underestimate.
Unlike the table above which is ordered alphabetically by the team acronym, this one is ordered by the total number of projected wins (most wins to least wins).
| TEAM | Below .500 | Above .500 | Opponent Weighted Win % | WINS | PROJECTED | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 13 | 20 | .489 | 82 | 16.9 | 99 |
| WSH | 17 | 15 | .463 | 75 | 17.2 | 92 |
| LAD | 20 | 12 | .475 | 73 | 16.8 | 90 |
| SF | 18 | 14 | .498 | 71 | 16.1 | 87 |
| PIT | 18 | 16 | .506 | 67 | 16.8 | 84 |
| STL | 17 | 16 | .502 | 68 | 16.4 | 84 |
| MIA | 13 | 19 | .492 | 67 | 16.3 | 83 |
| NYM | 19 | 13 | .466 | 66 | 17.1 | 83 |
The big picture view still suggests that the Cubs and the Nationals have to be odds-on favorites to win their respective divisions and hopefully meet in the NLCS. Based on looking at both games against teams above/below .500, and the weighted average win percentage of their opponents, the Pirates, Cardinals and Marlins have the toughest road to a Wild Card berth in terms of their remaining schedule. The primary factor counting against the Mets is they currently have 1 less win than their competitors. It looks like it will be a close race and the remaining home games against divisional opponents are going to be a key factor.
But lets close with a glass half full perspective:
- Despite only going 2-5 in this past weeks games, the Nats are still in good shape. And the remaining schedule is friendlier to the Nats.
- As Section222 pointed out in 7th 18-gamer: Up and Down, but Reason for Hope, the Nats went 9-9 in their most recent 18 game stretch. And in the four games since they have gone 2-2 – in other words .500. If they just play .500 from here on out, the Marlins would have to go 24-8 to get to 91 wins; and the Mets would have to go 25-7.
- The only games the Nats have against above .500 teams are their 6 game against the Marlins; 6 against the Mets; and 3 against the Pirates. If they just split those games against the Mets and the Marlins (and so far the Nats are winning the season series against both of them), the Marlins and/or Mets would need to to 21-5 and 22-4 in their other games.
Bottom line is that in spite of a bad week, the Nats are still in great shape.
But as we all know, and have said in each of the prior counting down posts, there is a reason they actually play the games!
