Going Deep with The Nats

The Washington Nationals continue to win series against teams that were projected to make the postseason like the Dodgers, Orioles, and Diamondbacks. But they two lost series on their last road trip to teams that are not expected to come close to the playoffs like the Pirates and the Marlins. If the Nationals just took care of business in Pittsburgh and Miami — they would have a winning record. Instead, they are at an 11-14 record with slim chances of going at least 5-1 to finish April with a winning record.

In the offseason, the Washington Nationals outfield was supposed to be a strength of the team. Two-thirds of that group in that photo had a slow start to their 2025 season. James Wood has done his part. Other than Wood on offense, CJ Abrams, Nathaniel Lowe, and Keibert Ruiz all had good starts to their season. The rest have been struggling, and Dylan Crews woke up in Colorado. Now he has to show that wasn’t a fluke. Baseball is always about, “What have you done for me lately.” That might not be fair, but it is what it is. Baseball has a marathon season, and we will cross the 15 percent completion mark on the season on Wednesday. What was done in the offseason to build this roster — and the commitment from ownership is still being debated.

We all had the fun exercises over the winter in how we would spend the Washington Nationals’ budget. Juan Soto‘s name was on top of the wish list although that was never a serious consideration. My hope was for a Alex Bregman signing, and a Nathaniel Lowe trade — I got half of my wishes. The budget needed to be spent on two quality bats where defense was also a priority — and Lowe filled one of the needs, and the rest of the money would be for a third baseman, a starting pitcher, two setup relievers, and a closer. Total budget: $50 million. Doable although every GM would wants more money. You must make the budget work. Quality over quantity. No bounceback players. Sure things.

General manager Mike Rizzo didn’t sign any top ranked free agents, even though he had $50 million to spend. He said he was staying away from the qualifying offer penalties. A defensible strategy. But there were still many players who were not tagged with a Q.O. It was the same ole same ole of going for quantity and “hoping and praying” that some worked out. There were rumors that he wanted to convert a former Yankees’ second baseman to third base, and a wicked rumor of trying to get an older first baseman in free agency that was thwarted by ownership. Yes, the Christian Walker tale. By the way, he had a Q.O. penalty attached. If there was a sliver of truth to that story, maybe principal owner Mark Lerner should take a page from Jerry Jones’ book and appoint himself as the GM because getting Lowe over Walker was the big success of the offseason. Yes, that is humor about taking on the role of GM, not a serious suggestion.

Some would say Rizzo needed more money, and he could have done better. Did you see what the Royals did in 2024 in their offseason spending? They spent $47 million on just their 2024 roster with some deals that committed them to three years, depending on player options. In total, they signed eight players, but the bulk of the money was spent on two pitchers combining for $30 million of that money. They also made the playoffs in a stunning turnaround.

The prevailing wisdom goes to the big market plan that you spend big to win games. Sure, that’s how the Phillies did it, and the Mets have been trying to go that route. But the Nats chose to stay the course. It’s a course that most don’t like. Besides Lowe, building the roster felt like a “seen it done it” from too many failed seasons. The same strategy that has been in effect for far too long in Nats history. Throw it against the wall and see what sticks. Some call it dumpster diving. Sure, you do that at the beginnings of a rebuild and when you have little payroll budget to spend. Easy for me to say how I would have spent that money. The GM’s job is difficult. They have competition for each player. But don’t force a deal.

When you have $50 million to spend, you should be more selective. Should. As detailed this past week, the only free agent signings of the 10 players acquired with positive WAR that was added for this season are Kyle Finnegan, Trevor Williams and Paul DeJong. Two were re-signings from the 2024 roster, and DeJong was basically a freebie as he signed for little more than the league minimum, and we knew, if nothing else, that he has Gold Glove potential defense — and he does.

This 2025 Washington Nationals season was supposed to be a turning the top prospects turning into bona fide MLB stars as the team exited the rebuild towards transitioning to being a contender. With James Wood and Mitchell Parker, we might be seeing that. But this offseason’s top prospect, Dylan Crews, is struggling, to be honest, and he was supposed to be a key to taking the Nats out of the rebuild. Yes, the season is young — there is no panic here — but all 10 of the offseason free agent signings except for Kyle Finnegan are struggling with inconsistency.

In fact, after Shinnosuke Ogasawara was optioned to Triple-A, seven of the remaining nine free agent signings made by general manager Mike Rizzo are sitting in negative WAR per FanGraphs. Yes, the season is only a little over 10 percent complete, but this sure feels like a repeat of last year and the year before — and the year before that, where the free agent failures far exceed the free agent successes. Andrew Ross termed it well as “subtraction by addition.” That is exactly what it feels like. This feels like a cycle of sign them, play them, remove them from the roster, and then repeat it the following season with a new cast of characters. Each offseason, you remove those players to achieve addition by subtraction, and repeat the mistake. It shouldn’t work that way. Especially when the budget was large enough at $50 million to sign quality over quantity. This is about consistently making good choices.