Yes, you can win games by a score of 1-0 as the Royals showed last night. The Nationals went into the bottom of the top of the 10th inning last night in a 0-0 tie, and lost after an error on a ball that should have been scooped by the first baseman. The little things. You’ve read this same article 26 times before. Some of these words and sentences need to be repeated. The little things matter.
The value of just one run is what can change seasons. The teams that win 1-run games with consistency usually go to the playoffs. The teams that don’t — are the teams that consistently do not execute, and generally finish with losing records.
The Nats could have scored 1-run earlier -or- they could have also clung to that 0-0 tie and tried to win by best strategies and brought in Joey Gallo earlier in the game as a defensive substitute. Of course, the winning run scored (unearned) when first baseman Juan Yepez could not glove a bounced throw. Also, the Nationals were 0-for-8 in RISP situations in the game. They had plenty of opportunities, and squandered all of them. But run prevention is equally important.
Maybe the best chance for the Nats to score was in the 8th inning when the team’s best baserunner, Jacob Young, reached second base on a hustle double with 1-out. With Ildemaro Vargas inserted as a pinch-hitter and batting right-handed, why not roll the dice and have Young steal 3rd base? That way a productive out could bring the winning run in by manufacturing the run. Instead, Young was stranded and did not score.
“Couldn’t get that run we needed. … we just couldn’t drive in any runs. … It came down to some key at-bats, and we couldn’t get the job done.”
— manager Dave Martinez on a similar loss last week
“We’ve got to get the ball in the strike zone. We can’t chase. … Today, we swung at some pitches out of the zone with two strikes, and we hit the ball on the ground when we should’ve hit the ball in the air.”
Currently, the Nats are 14-23 in 1-run games (.378 winning %). They are 5-12 in extra inning games (an awful .294 winning %). Now consider this: four of the extra inning losses were by more than 1-run. That means the Nats finished those games at 14-27 when tied or trailing by 1-run in the 9th inning (a pathetic .341 winning %). You flip that around to 27-14 and the Nats are 82-65. Close to a playoff team. Certainly a winning team.
Contrast all of that with the Padres — a team that was 9-23 last year in 1-run games. They changed managers to Mike Shildt. This year the Padres are 22-18 in 1-run games and an amazing 10-2 in extra inning games. They clinched a playoff spot last night with a shot at the best record in the NL.
“When you get later in games, there’s more opportunities that are important, more magnified, about execution. Really, it’s about normalizing how you play the game.”
— Shildt said last week on MLB Network Radio
One-run games often are a measure of luck — but some are really about poor execution. Come on, 0-for-8 in RISP last night is awful. The value of just one-run has been missing from the Nationals for a long time now. Waiting for the 3-run homer rarely comes even though the Nationals are 6th in the Majors in that stat.
The Padres have the least strikeouts in baseball — and last week were the only team under 1,000 strikeouts. They are also 12th in most home runs. They are doing something right. Shildt said it is about “execution and approach.”
The Padres best contact hitter, Luis Arraez, had gone 141 plate appearances without a strikeout in a streak he set until it was broken last week. His streak started on August 10. According to Elias, it was the longest streak since the 2004 season. Arraez tied Tony Gwynn for the second-longest streak in Padres history. Only Gwynn’s run of 170 straight plate appearances in 1995 was longer. In today’s game, Arraez has set the tone for his Padres team in 2-strike counts. The key is not chasing pitches, and taking your walks. Take what the game gives you and move the line. It is a non-selfish approach to baseball that used to be a standard. Today, it’s more about who wants to be the hero. Knocking in runs — gets you paid. Hitting homers really gets you paid. How many people knew about Arraez’s streak?
Maybe it just comes down to the players and execution — and managers and coaches do not matter. Do you believe that? Shildt is making a difference. His team traded away Juan Soto, and some of the best players from their 2023 roster left via free agency like Blake Snell, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, and Josh Hader. That is a lot of departing All-Stars. Yet, Shildt took the players they gave him, and has put together a great season so far. They added Arraez, Dylan Cease, and Michael King from the Soto trade. They also called up rookie Jackson Merrill and he has turned into their top-WAR player. Credit to Shildt and their coaches.
In Martinez’s defense, he does not have a Cease, and nobody has stepped up to the level of Merrill. And maybe this is just a glimpse into the Nats future that you can turn around the value of that one-run from one season to the next. The Padres are proof of that. In Shildt’s interview on MLB Network Radio, radio host Ryan Spilborghs asked Shildt about the “little things” he has done to win the close games. Yes, the little things matter. The attention to details. If winning is the goal, you have to decide whether you stick with your starter at 90-pitches after he gave up three hard hit outs (averaging over 106 mph) in the prior inning.
“It’s about the little things.”
— Martinez has spoken those words 100’s of times
Oftentimes, the little things are the responsibility of the manager and the coaches. Martinez did sub in Ildemaro Vargas who saved the game with his glove in the 9th inning. He replaced Trey Lipscomb who made his 9th error of the season in 167 chances. That’s a .946 fielding percentage and not Gold Glove caliber. But Yepez remained in the game with Gallo available in the late innings, and that 1-run that scored was because a scoop could not be made.
But what about the horrific offense that hasn’t scored a run in over 22 innings? An offense that has scored just 34 times in the past two weeks. That’s a normal week for many teams. And yet Martinez was proud last month to announce he was rewarding his coaching staff by extending everyone — including his hitting coach, Darnell Coles. What, why, and how? What is going on here?
Last night, two players fell to the dreaded Mendoza line with both Lipsomb and Dylan Crews struggling amongst the many on this team to hit above .200 in batting average.
It’s a team game — not “your” game. Win as a team or lose as a team. Sometimes you have to change your own normalizing to improve for the future. Just because it is your “normal” does not necessarily make it the path to success. Just because you have always done X or Y for your entire managerial career doesn’t mean it is the best path. Self-analyzing is a good place to start. What can you do to change for the better?
